1%Crypto

[andrew engler @aerockrose]

In 1982 Ray Dalio bet his firm on a depression that never came. Being that wrong turned out to be the best thing that ever happened to him.

He had built Bridgewater. He had a long run of being right. So he made a loud, public call that the debt crisis would tip the world into another Great Depression.

"Mexico defaulted in August 1982. I thought, we're going to go into this crisis and everything is going to fall apart. And that was the exact bottom of the stock market. I couldn't have been more wrong."

The cost was total. He had to let everybody go. He rebuilt from zero. He was so broke he borrowed $4,000 from his dad.

Most founders would bury a story like that. Dalio calls it the best experience of his life, because it rewired one habit:

"Rather than thinking I'm right, I went to thinking, how do I know I'm right?"

That question became the formula he still runs on: Pain plus Reflection equals Progress. Pain is the signal you got something wrong. Reflection is where you mine it for the lesson. The principle you write down is the gem you keep.

The danger was never being wrong. The danger was being so confident he stopped asking how he knew. Which of your current bets have you never stress-tested against the smartest people who disagree with you?

Ray Dalio (@RayDalio) with Henry Blodget (@hblodget) on Business Insider

[bodila @51bodila]

Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel by proving that every financial decision you’ve ever made was a guess your brain never checked

he explaining exactly how your mind tricks you into losing money

Charlie Munger built his entire list of 25 cognitive biases from this man's research

Kahneman's Nobel Prize discovery in 5 steps:

step 1 → your brain guesses first and checks never - "System 2 is lazy"

step 2 → 50% of Harvard fails a problem a child can solve - same brain picks your stocks

step 3 → losing $100 hurts 2x more than gaining $100 - that's why you hold losers

step 4 → you believe conclusions first - then find arguments to match

step 5 → confidence is a feeling - not a signal - your certainty means nothing

he died March 2024. one of his final lectures. 50 years in one hour

bookmark & watch today ↓

[Chief Nerd @TheChiefNerd]

RAPAPORT: “The Jewish tunnels of Los Angeles are real. I've been in there.”

[Big Brain Business @BigBrainBizness]

Warren Buffett compares today's financial markets to a church with a casino attached:

Buffett says the casino is winning. He explains:

"People can move between the church and the casino. And I always said there are more people in the church, but the casino's gotten very attractive to people."

At the center of his concern: one-day options trading.

"If you're buying one-day options or selling them, that is gambling. Just totally."

He acknowledges that there may be rare exceptions, individuals with genuine informational edges, but says those cases are vanishingly rare compared to the sheer volume of activity happening now.

"We've never had people in a more gambling mood than now."

But @WarrenBuffett is careful to separate the noise from the signal.

"That doesn't mean that investing is terrible."

What it does mean, he warns, is that prices for a lot of things will start looking absurd, detached from any rational basis.

He points to the case of Avis, a company that has been around for 50 years, as an example of a stock recently caught up in an irrational short squeeze that had nothing to do with the company's underlying value.

And despite increased regulation designed to curb this behavior? Buffett is unsentimental about its effectiveness.

"We have lots more regulation now, but people spend their time figuring out how to get around the rules rather than follow the rules. That's just a challenge."

[Neeraj @neeraj_here15]

STEVE JOBS GOT FIRED FROM APPLE.

Then he walked straight into MIT and dropped the most raw, unfiltered 60-minute business masterclass ever recorded.

Zero PR bullshit. Zero image to protect.

Just pure, brutal honesty from the man who built Apple once and was about to rebuild it even bigger. Stop scrolling.

Watch this tonight instead of Netflix.

Bookmark it. Come back to it.

[The Real World App @apprealworld]

🚨 Andrew Tate on why he treats 20 wasted minutes like a crime.

"There's been times I've lost my car keys and wasted 20 minutes of my life, and I'm furious."

Most men throw away hours a day and feel nothing. He loses 20 minutes to his own disorganization and it eats him alive, so he builds systems so it never happens again.

Your time leaks out of tiny holes you have stopped noticing. Start noticing.

[Stocks World @anandchokshi19]

This lecture from Warren Buffett is worth more than reading 90% of investing books.

[Handre @Handre]

Central bankers will never recover from this.

[Camus @newstart_2024]

“She’s lying.”

Chase Hughes called it in just four seconds on a Zoom call.

No grilling. One calm line: “Tell me about last night.”

Her blink rate spiked from ~20 to 80. Eyes shifted. Stress signals lit up.

Deception isn’t one tell, it’s spotting changes from baseline. Clusters of stress. Deviations that most people miss.

Ask better. Observe sharper.

Stress elevates blink rate dramatically while open-ended prompts reduce defensiveness, revealing unconscious behavioral clusters faster than direct questions.

What’s one communication trick that’s changed how you read people?

[Jesse Day @jessebday]

"They want to destroy everything you and I have that would make us independent of them." @GEdward_Griffin on the transnational oligarchy that wants to enslave us all. Full interview up TOMORROW.

[karma @karma44921039]

👁🔺 NEW—Reese Report: Religious Mind Control and The Impending Holy War

[Ivan on Tech 🍳📈💰 Head Trader @ Bullmania @IvanOnTech]

lmaooo
there were many signs

[Origins of Memes @OriginsOfMeme]

@saylor

[Catherine Austin Fitts @austin_fit76995]

The 2020 lockdowns were necessary to save the system.

Basically they locked us down so they could print $6T and prevent hyper-inflation. That's how bad the situation is.

There's no solution here. A global reset is coming.

[David Lester Straight AD @Nicole06079614]

What would happen if you woke up tomorrow and your bank balance had been "reset"?

[Camus @newstart_2024]

“Toxic masculinity” is a war on men.

Chris Williamson says it’s like telling men they’re inherently broken, the modern version of original sin.

Physical fitness, eating meat, driving cars, even saying “have a nice day”, all labeled toxic. It’s pushing men away from the conversation.

What’s your take, do you think the “toxic masculinity” narrative is doing more harm than good?