You can’t predict how high an asset will go.
Or how far it will fall.
If you could, bubbles and crashes wouldn’t exist.
Markets aren’t irrational all the time.
They’re irrational at the edges.
Euphoria at the top.
Panic at the bottom.
That’s not a bug. That’s the system.
Comedian George Carlin once said, “Everyone driving slower than you is an idiot, and everyone driving faster than you is a maniac!” It’s natural to view everyone’s decisions as wrong when they differ from yours
#artofspendingmoney#simpletruths#financialdecision
Is there "clarity" today?
Markets up 3.5%.
A few days ago the question was: "Why not wait for clarity?"
Is there clarity today? What changed? If POTUS becomes best friends with the Supreme Leader next week and markets are up another 10%, will you invest then? Post 14% rally? With clarity?
And if you do invest then and the conflict flares up again in two weeks?
There is no clarity. There never is.
If you are well diversified, running proper asset allocation or doing long term systematic investing, a 15% or even 30% move is not a crisis. It is the price of admission. You should expect it.
But many investors save 5% to 10% of their portfolio each year, or come into some money, or find their asset allocation has drifted for whatever reason. They face the question of when to deploy. For long term investments, good entry odds are all we can ensure. We shouldn't be too cute about it.
When odds are favorable, increase your bet. If they become more favorable, increase more. Don't think in binary terms. Don't ask "should I go from 60% to 80%?" Can you go to 62% then can you go to 68%? 75%? Gradually. Continuously. Without waiting for a clarity that will never arrive.
The only approach that reliably beats this is a systematic, rule based, pre committed allocation. And that works precisely because it removes you from the decision.
Long-term vs. expiring knowledge
There are two types of information: stuff you’ll still care about in the future, and stuff that matters less and less over time.
It’s critical to identify which is which when you come across something new
#mondaythoughts#financialplanning
Net flows into Gold+Silver ETFs is Rs 40,000 cr in Jan 2026. Gold price in Jan 2026 was 14000/gm.
When the first tranche of Sovereign Gold Funds were launched in Nov 2015 it mobilised 246 Crs! The issue price was ₹2600/gm.
Don't they say...
Everyone thinks bubbles are obvious.
Until they’re inside one.
1999: “The internet is the future.”
2008: “Property prices never fall.”
Crypto: “This will change everything.”
Today: “Silver always protects.”
The story is rarely wrong.
The price is.
Real wealth isn’t built by chasing what’s working. It’s built by staying disciplined when things feel safest.
The real edge isn’t calling the top. It’s knowing when risk is no longer being paid for.
Hot take:
Indian IT isn’t collapsing.
It’s being misread.
Yes, the Anthropic effect is real.
AI is breaking billable hours and wiping out low-value work.
But look at what the market actually did.
(Read the thread)
The next phase of Indian IT won’t be sold by the hour.
It will be sold through outcomes, accountability, and AI-augmented execution — where firms own the problem, not just the manpower.
This isn’t the downfall of Indian IT.
It’s the great separation.
Those who adapt compound.
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You can’t predict how high an asset will go.
Or how far it will fall.
If you could, bubbles and crashes wouldn’t exist.
Markets aren’t irrational all the time.
They’re irrational at the edges.
Euphoria at the top.
Panic at the bottom.
That’s not a bug. That’s the system.
The uncomfortable truth?
Prediction is not your edge.
Price is.
Buy when it’s cheap.
Have the discipline to walk away when it’s expensive.
Everything else—stories, targets, forecasts—
is noise dressed up as certainty.
Control what you can.
Ignore what you can’t.