Australian Election Forecasts

Makes probabilistic forecasts for Australian elections.

[Australian Election Forecasts @aeforecasts]

The final Newspoll has been released, and resulted in little change to the forecast. Chance of a Labor majority is 70.6% (down 0.8%), chance of Coalition majority is 3.9% (up 0.1%), chance of neither major party having a majority is 25.5% (up 0.7%).

[AusPoll @AusPoll6]

🚨 NEW: Federal voting intention

🟧 ONP: 28% (-1)
🟥 ALP: 26% (-)
🟦 L/NP: 21% (+1)
🟩 GRN: 13% (-)
⬛️ OTH: 12% (-)

Two-party-preferred
🟥 ALP: 52% (+0.5)
🟦 L/NP: 48% (-0.5)

ALP vs ONP
🟥 ALP: 52% (-0.5)
🟧 ONP: 48% (+0.5)

YouGov | 9-16 Jun | n=1492 | +/- 26 May-2 Jun

[Australian Election Forecasts @aeforecasts]

RT @kevinbonham: #ResolvePM Qld (state) L-NP 30 ALP 24 ON 24 Grn 10 IND 5 Other appears to be 7 (shown as 0 on graph in error).

My 2PP e…

[AusPoll @AusPoll6]

🚨 NEW: Federal voting intention

🟧 ONP: 29.5% (-)
🟥 ALP: 28% (+2)
🟦 L/NP: 17% (-0.5)
🟩 GRN: 14% (-1.5)
⬛️ OTH: 11.5% (-)

Two-party-preferred
🟥 ALP: 54.5% (-1.5)
🟦 L/NP: 45.5% (+1.5)

ALP vs ONP
🟥 ALP: 53% (-0.5)
🟧 ONP: 47% (+0.5)

Roy Morgan | 8-14 Jun | n=1583 | +/- 1-7 Jun

[Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham]

#ResolvePM Vic(state) not as bad for Vic Labor as others but still quite bad ALP 26 L-NP 26 ON 24 Grn 12 IND 5 others 7.

My 2PP estimate 51.7 to L-NP (-1.1) This would probably be a hung parliament of some kind, not even clear Coalition would win off that.

[AusPoll @AusPoll6]

🚨 NEW: Victoria (state) voting intention

🟦 L/NP: 26% (-3)
🟥 ALP: 26% (-1)
🟧 ONP: 24% (+3)
🟩 GRN: 12% (+2)
⬜️ IND: 5% (-2)
⬛️ OTH: 7% (+1)

Resolve | May-Jun 2026 | n=1100 | +/- Mar-Apr 2026

[AusPoll @AusPoll6]

🚨 NEW: Western Australia (state) voting intention

🟥 ALP: 33% (-3)
🟦 LIB: 23% (+2)
🟧 ONP: 18% (+1)
🟩 GRN: 12% (-1)
🟩 NAT: 3% (-1)
⬛️ OTH: 11% (+2)

Two-party-preferred
🟥 ALP: 53% (-4)
🟦 LIB: 47% (+4)

DemosAU | 29 May-11 Jun | n=1015 | +/- 16-23 Feb

[Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham]

#ResolvePM ALP 28 L-NP 20 ON 29 Grn 12 IND 7 other 5

My 2PP conversion 52.4 to ALP (-0.3)
My ALP vs ON conversion 50.9 to ALP (-2.3)

[AusPoll @AusPoll6]

🚨 NEW: Victoria (state) voting election

🟦 L/NP: 30% (+1)
🟧 ONP: 23% (+2)
🟥 ALP: 21% (-2)
🟩 GRN: 15% (-)
⬛️ OTH: 11% (-1)

Two-party-preferred
🟦 L/NP: 55% (+2)
🟥 ALP: 45% (-2)

DemosAU/PremierNational | 7-11 Jun | n=1056 | +/- 1-10 Feb

[AusPoll @AusPoll6]

🚨 NEW: Federal voting intention

🟧 ONP: 29.5% (+2.5)
🟥 ALP: 26% (-1)
🟦 L/NP: 17.5% (-2.5)
🟩 GRN: 15.5% (+2)
⬛️ OTH: 11.5% (-1)

Two-party-preferred
🟥 ALP: 56% (+0.5)
🟦 L/NP: 44% (-0.5)

ALP vs ONP
🟥 ALP: 53.5% (-)
🟧 ONP: 46.5% (-)

Roy Morgan | 1-7 Jun | n=1631 | +/- 25-31 May

[AusPoll @AusPoll6]

🚨 NEW: Victoria (state) voting intention

🟦 L/NP: 27% (-3)
🟧 ONP: 25% (+5)
🟥 ALP: 23% (-4)
🟩 GRN: 14% (-)
⬛️ OTH: 11% (+2)

Two-party-preferred
🟦 L/NP: 53% (+1)
🟥 ALP: 47% (-1)

Freshwater | 5-8 Jun | n=1034 | +/- 19-23 Mar

[Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham]

The newspaper-shaped object that presumes to call itself the Herald-Sun has AGAIN published a poll where it has failed to state the Green primary.

[AusPoll @AusPoll6]

🚨 NEW: Queensland (state) voting intention

🟦 LNP: 34% (-)
🟥 ALP: 25% (-3)
🟧 ONP: 24% (+3)
🟩 GRN: 10% (-)
⬛️ OTH: 7% (-)

Two-party-preferred
🟦 LNP: 58% (+2)
🟥 ALP: 42% (-2)

DemosAU/PremierNational | 27 May-3 Jun | n=1033 | +/- 10-20 Feb

[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes]

#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: ALP 30 (-1) ON 31 (+4) L/NP 18 (-2) GRN 11 (-1) Others 10 (0) #auspol

[AusPoll @AusPoll6]

🚨 NEW: Federal voting intention

🟧 ONP: 29% (+4)
🟥 ALP: 26% (-2)
🟦 L/NP: 20% (-3)
🟩 GRN: 13% (-)
⬜️ IND: 6% (+1)
⬛️ OTH: 6% (-)

Two-party-preferred
🟥 ALP: 51.5% (-0.5)
🟦 L/NP: 48.5% (+0.5)

ALP vs ONP
🟥 ALP: 52.5% (-0.5)
🟧 ONP: 47.5% (+0.5)

YouGov | 26 May-2 Jun | n=1471 | +/- 12-19 May

[Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham]

#Morgan ALP 27 L-NP 20 ON 27Grn 13.5 Ind/others 12.5

their 2PP (respondent) 55.5 to ALP (+2.5)
(last election) 53.5 (+1.5)
my conversion 52.7 (+1)

their ALP vs ON 53.5 (=) (respondent)
my conversion 51.7 (-.3)

[AusPoll @AusPoll6]

🚨 NEW: Federal voting intention

🟥 ALP: 29% (-1)
🟧 ONP: 27% (+4)
🟦 L/NP: 25% (+2)
🟩 GRN: 10% (-3)
⬛️ OTH: 9% (-2)

Two-party-preferred
🟦 L/NP: 51% (+2)
🟥 ALP: 49% (-2)

ALP vs ONP
🟥 ALP: 54% (-2)
🟧 ONP: 46% (+2)

L/NP vs ONP
🟦 L/NP: 58% (-2)
🟧 ONP: 42% (+2)

Fox & Hedgehog | 25-26 May | n=1700 | +/- 24-25 Mar

[AusPoll @AusPoll6]

🚨 NEW: Federal voting intention

🟧 ONP: 31% (+4)
🟥 ALP: 28% (-3)
🟦 L/NP: 20% (-2)
🟩 GRN: 12% (-1)
⬛️ OTH: 9% (+2)

Two-party-preferred
🟥 ALP: 51% (-3)
🟦 L/NP: 49% (+3)

ALP vs ONP
🟥 ALP: 51% (-4)
🟧 ONP: 49% (+4)

RedBridge/Accent | 25-28 May | n=1005 | +/- 24-30 Apr

[AusPoll @AusPoll6]

🚨 NEW: Federal voting intention

🟥 ALP: 29%
🟧 ONP: 24%
🟦 L/NP: 18%
🟩 GRN: 10%
⬜️ IND: 6%
⬛️ OTH: 1%
(Undecided: 12%)

Agenda C Synesis | 22-26 May | n=1232

[Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham]

#Essential primaries not on same scale as other polls because undecided left in
ALP 29 L-NP 23 ON 28 (series high) Grn 11 Ind/other 5 undecided 4
Their "2PP+" 48-47 to ALP (=50.5, +1.5)
my conversion 50.7 (-0.8)
my ALP vs ON estimate 50.2 (-1.9)

[Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham]

#Morgan ALP 27.5 L-NP 23 ON 25.5 Grn 13.5 IND/other 11.5

https://t.co/wvWxP9besk

2PP 53 to ALP (respondent) 52 (last election)
my conversion 51.7 to ALP (=)

ALP vs ON 53.5 to ALP (respondent)
my conversion 52.0 to ALP (-0.2)