Ali Elmi

Chemical/Energy Engineer, Social Researcher, and Community activist. Interested in horn of Africa, Arab and Islamic world's current issues.

[Ali Elmi @aelmi1313]

@EIshmael_ This warlord, the ex-president, has exceeded all previous warlords in terms of cruelty and indifference. He's illegally robbing and confiscating privately owned properties and selling them to dubious traders. The most vulnerable sections i.e. orphans, widows are being crushed 😔.

[Ali Elmi @aelmi1313]

@RepOfSomaliland What a deliberate fearmongering tactics !!, the UK won't benefit anything from a negative involvement that may undermine the sovereignty and national integrity of Somalia. The current weak state formation in Somalia, and any future government won't pose any threat to the UK.

[Ali Elmi @aelmi1313]

@DavidGreenhh @tedcruz @StateDept @US2SOMALIA @Taiwan_SLD Recognition won't be an easy task. Somalis are practically divided into clans with competing and conflicting interests. The Somaliland cessationists are mainly from one group - the Isaq tribe.

[Ali Elmi @aelmi1313]

@miracles7k Yes, the face must be visible. I think it's in the common community interest the person to be recognisable.

[Ali Elmi @aelmi1313]

@FaqiAlis Mr Hassan shouldn't use any violence to anyone, his term, and the term of parliament is finished
Any use force is illegal and could be considered an act of warlordism.
What Somalia needs is a smooth transition to a real functioning government.

[Ali Elmi @aelmi1313]

@FaqiAlis Your opinion is in line with the facts surrounded by the maritime dispute - that issue is now a history. Mr Hassan's term is finished on 15th May. He's operating outside the legal jurisdiction. He nominates illegality the regional states' presidents.The country is in mess.

[Elham Ishmael ✍︎ @EIshmael_]

It’s a sad reality failed Somali leaders spend 24 hours a day condemning Siad Barre as a dictator, yet they engage in the very same authoritarian behaviors they once criticized. At least Siad Barre actually built the country. What have these leaders truly accomplished? NOTHING!

[Ali Elmi @aelmi1313]

@FaqiAlis I absolutely agree with you. In the beginning the role of the Turkish government involvement was positive and constructive, but later, they became purely and greedily economical interest oriented by signing dubious/questionable hydrocarbon contracts with the acting president HSM.

[Dr. Ali S Faqi @FaqiAlis]

Why are many Somalis raising concerns about Türkiye lately?

It is not because they dislike Türkiye. In fact, many people still remember and appreciate the support Türkiye gave Somalia during some of its most difficult years.

The concern today is mainly about the way Türkiye is increasingly perceived to behave politically inside Somalia. There is a growing feeling that Türkiye has become too closely associated with certain unpopular and controversial politicians, listening mainly to their advice and supporting their personal political agenda. Therefore, this has contributed to increasing interference in Somalia’s internal affairs.

In a highly politicized society like Somalia, this perception is gradually making Türkiye’s presence more controversial and less popular among sections of the public.

International partnerships are strongest when they remain balanced, neutral, and focused on supporting national institutions rather than internal political rivalries.

[Afyare A. Elmi @afyare_elmi]

For the first time since the international community declared Somalia's transition ended in 2012, President @HassanSMohamud's government mandate is set to expire without a political agreement among Somali stakeholders. Even during the former president's controversial term extension, Somali groups reached a political agreement on September 17, 2020, about five months before his mandate expired. Now, with Parliament's mandate having expired last month, the president's mandate is due to expire on Friday, May 15, 2026. Yet there is NO political agreement for the way forward and political dispensation.

This situation did not happen by accident. Given recent developments, it is evident that President @HassanSMohamud is determined to maintain power through gerrymandering, fake elections, manipulation, closing civic space, and using force to repress dissidents, journalists, and activists. The government has led the country into a political deadlock that threatens the survival of the Third Republic. This is a very bad legacy for @HassanSMohamud.

Reportedly, there are U.S.-led efforts to help prevent a complete collapse and encourage dialogue among the parties. I hope these efforts will result in a political agreement between the government and the opposition.

In my view, regardless of how the agreement is presented, four principles must be adhered to during the elections/selections at the Federal Government and Federal Member States levels:

1. Political Agreement: This must include the government, opposition, and Federal Member States. There is an urgent need for this agreement and political dispensation because Parliament's mandate ended in April 2026, and the executive's mandate, including the presidency, expires on Friday, May 15, 2026. Therefore, the governance vacuum should be filled as soon as possible with a political dispensation negotiated between the parties.

2. Competitiveness: Any model used must allow candidates to compete for seats. To my knowledge, the tribal clan power-sharing system, often referred to as 4.5, is here to stay, and all political forces accept that reality. That said, all potential gatekeepers, whether they are FGS leaders, opposition, FMS leaders, or elders, should be controlled to the extent possible. There must be open competition for every seat, and no fake competitors should be allowed (Malxiis). The biggest want-to-be gatekeeper is the government, its commission, its computer system, and its arbitrary laws.

3. Inclusivity and Independence: An inclusive and independent commission that can fairly arbitrate among competing candidates is necessary, and the system (if any) should be subject to international audit. Even if there is going to be a limited election where clan delegates elect candidates, some form of a system can be used as a trial. In the past, the government has refused to allow its system to be audited by one of the Big Four companies. @VillaSomalia missed a big opportunity because the president did not want a fair election.

4. Controlling Corruption: Corruption has always been endemic in Somalia, but the government's approach to land management has taken it to a new level. Upon election, Martin Ronceray and Bruce Byiers reported on various strategies that African leaders employ to manipulate elections: changing the constitution, removing term limits, excluding candidates or voters, weakening watchdog organizations, and manipulating timing. On election day, these leaders resort to vote-buying, intimidation, control of information, falsification of results, and claiming victory early. Based on the so-called municipal elections in Mogadishu and the government's approach to this issue since 2024, Villa Somalia has effectively implemented all of the above tactics. (See the report here: https://t.co/567IWZGSHY).

In short, it is unfortunate that President @HassanSMohamud has become the first president to openly attempt to unilaterally change the political settlement agreed upon by Somalis, and his term will expire without a political agreement. Let us hope that a deal is reached before Friday, May 15, 2026.

Just in case you want to read my previous writings on this issue, here are two:

1. Can Somalia’s Third Republic Be Saved? Available at https://t.co/oHhFV91Grh
2. Somalia’s 2026 election risks a legitimacy crisis: Available at https://t.co/KcdDzPSQua

[Ali Elmi @aelmi1313]

@DavidGreenhh Sadly, the recognition of such states will not bring any advantages to Somaliland. Desperation will only make worse the problems and the misery of the people. Somaliland needs no recognition but capable politicians.

[Ali Elmi @aelmi1313]

@DavidGreenhh No, it's not a double standard. One can support regional elections of Somaliland while keeping and not violating the territorial integrity of Somalia intact. There is nothing wrong with such an attitude.

[Ali Elmi @aelmi1313]

@Abdirahmanirro @POTUS The so-called SL (northwestern region of Somalia) can not lecture about peace. they committed a mass-killing by bombarding the Lassanod city for years until the local people defeated the SNM invaders in Aug 2023. Peace begins at home and neighbourhood.

[Ali Elmi @aelmi1313]

@DavidGreenhh Yes, in many ways, Turkey's involvement in the internal political affairs of Somalia has complicated the situation. Unfortunately, they're purely focused on taking advantage of Somalia's peculiar conditions.

[Ali Elmi @aelmi1313]

@DavidGreenhh @X As a Somali unionist, I don't mind people being given an opportunity to choose whatever regional name they feel comfortable. This may complicate data handling and design. Each region of the world will ask its name to be accommodated, to name two: Galmudug state, Jubland, etc.

[Ali Elmi @aelmi1313]

@AAbdishakur Generally, I agree with your description of the existing problems, but as we all know, both systems are fragile - the central and regional levels. The overall situation won't get worse if all these fragile states were put together in one basket and wait for the outcome.

[Ali Elmi @aelmi1313]

@HarunMaruf Dialogue is the only option available. Coercion is unacceptable and practically impossible.
The central government is required to deal with regional states' internal issues equally and in a predictable manner.

[Ali Elmi @aelmi1313]

@HarunMaruf It is a very sad moment. Be specific. Please don't generalise. It's not the Somali forces that fight ISIS but the Puntland state army without any support from Mogadishu. 😔

[Ali Elmi @aelmi1313]

@mr_muskxnews Radar, Razor, reaeacher, regulator

[Ali Elmi @aelmi1313]

@Malcolm_Pal9 They all are unelected leaders !!!