Ahmed Elwan

Groundwater Modeller

[Ahmed Elwan @aelwan4]

@INArteCarloDoss Years

[Ahmed Elwan @aelwan4]

@ShitValueFund It's a matter of when not if

[Ahmed Elwan @aelwan4]

@biancoresearch What is the point of opening the Strait if energy infrastructure on both sides gets destroyed?

[Ahmed Elwan @aelwan4]

@TOzgokmen sunk cost fallacy

[Ahmed Elwan @aelwan4]

@TOzgokmen Has the US ever fought a country after WW2 that manufactures (+exports) its own missiles and drones, has proxies across multiple countries + has a global ideological base willing to volunteer?

[Ahmed Elwan @aelwan4]

@TOzgokmen Not just that. Iran has Hezbollah + PMF (officially part of Iraq's military) + Houthis + Fatemiyoun (Afghan) + Zainabiyoun (Pakistani). Battle tested proxies spread across the region. Plus ~200-300 million Shia worldwide

[Ahmed Elwan @aelwan4]

@TOzgokmen That war left Iraq broke and its army drained. So he invaded Kuwait to pay for it. Liberating Kuwait in 1991 was a walk in the park...100 hrs against an exhausted army that had been bleeding for 8 yrs

[Ahmed Elwan @aelwan4]

@TOzgokmen Saddam arrogantly thought he'd take Iran in 3 weeks. It took him 8 years, and he 'declared victory' after fighting just to get back to where he started

[Ahmed Elwan @aelwan4]

@ShitValueFund Pocket money for PRU with ~$1B cash pile. Wouldn't be surprised if this ~10% turns into a full acquisition down the line

[Ahmed Elwan @aelwan4]

@asxbullsyd @ShitValueFund 1973=> 7% supply loss -> 300% price increase Hormuz=> ~20% supply loss -> 3x the shock 3 × 300% = 900% -> $60 × 10 = $???/barrel
Economies break long before that. Demand destruction kicks in and the global economy screeches to a halt

[Ahmed Elwan @aelwan4]

@TOzgokmen 1973 => 7% supply loss -> 300% price increase
Hormuz=> ~20% supply loss -> 3x the shock
3 × 300% = 900% -> $60 × 10 = $???/barrel

Economies break long before that. Demand destruction kicks in and the global economy screeches to a halt.

[Ahmed Elwan @aelwan4]

@TOzgokmen Iran ~92x Kuwait and mostly mountains. 1991 had 700k coalition troops against an Iraqi army exhausted after 8 yrs of war deserting in masses. Today no coalition yet, against 90m people in fortress, Houthis on the Strait, and proxies everywhere. 1991 was a walk in the park

[Ahmed Elwan @aelwan4]

@biancoresearch What is the point of opening the Strait if energy infrastructure on both sides gets destroyed?

[Ahmed Elwan @aelwan4]

@asxbullsyd @ShitValueFund $150 is so optimistic

[Ahmed Elwan @aelwan4]

@C_Barraud Soon it will be 2030

[Ahmed Elwan @aelwan4]

@JackFarley96 Absolutely it will be very long and ugly

[Ahmed Elwan @aelwan4]

@Mr_Derivatives "We have reached a permanently high plateau"

[Ahmed Elwan @aelwan4]

@TOzgokmen Fits your prediction of more conflicts, just different players here. Saudi vs UAE. Could spread beyond Yemen to Sudan where they're already on opposite sides....maybe Libya et al

[Ahmed Elwan @aelwan4]

@Anon36834 @TOzgokmen Bonds