AEP

Strategic Intel | Probabilistic Analysis | Anomaly Detection

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

If the fractal continues to play out, the next leg could become a full-scale capitulation event toward the long-term holder cost basis (~$50k). $BTC

NUPL divergences.
Weekly 200 SMA.
AVWAP confluence.
...

Detailed version coming soon.
Meanwhile
https://t.co/hHbBlvrxoy

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

2022 vs 2026 #BTC

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

Going into the weekend with $Gold trying to break above the 200 EMA 200.
If successful, we might see the surge of a nice trend.

Access to my portfolio exposure
https://t.co/5Y5Pqbcqek

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

$Gold is beginning to confirm...

Read more
https://t.co/5Y5Pqbcqek

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

The last phase of the bearmarket is undergoing... Coldcard just activated it. $BTC

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

@TedPillows $BTC is going to spend more time consolidating than oscilating.

Even during the next bull market.
However the moves might be strong.

[IKECHUKWU @analyst_lucky]

@WatcherGuru I thought they said it's under US control 100%?

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

@TedPillows Well, so is the whole world. Besides they don't really care about their own currency or the dollar, when they can trade with Yuan or even $BTC

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

@TedPillows Digital oil is a strong statement

[Ted @TedPillows]

Goldman Sachs warns of $184,000,000,000 in global stocks selling this month if market conditions turn bearish.

Holy Shit.

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

Again. Inflation will resurface. This whole 'HODL $ETH' narrative isn't adding up.

Risk is high. Could get higher.
The "good project" argument has been fallible countless times.

And sooner or later, $BTC will capitulate.

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

The price of $BTC is going to spend more time consolidating than violently oscilating. Even during the next bull market.

However the moves might be strong.

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

Operational risk is high. My capital is still preserved.

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

$ETH

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

A bit skeptical about $ETH

Read more about my thesis:
https://t.co/bxI8X2CIDk

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

A bit skeptical about $ETH

Read more about my thesis:
https://t.co/bxI8X2CIDk

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

Sell the news.

[Ted @TedPillows]

BlackRock is now also supporting the Clarity Act.

Do it.

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

Inflation will caught up soon. Low probability scenario.

[Ted @TedPillows]

🇺🇸 President Trump says interest rate should be lowered.

I hope so but this is not going to happen this week.

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

Energy crisis is a business.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: New high-resolution satellite imagery shows major damage to the Abqaiq oil processing facility, the world's largest crude oil stabilization plant processing 7% of global oil supply, and a massive black plume of smoke rising following drone attacks, per Sentinel-2 imagery.

Saudi Aramco has suspended all operations and triggered emergency flaring across multiple production sites.

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

Read more about my capital preservation thesis:

https://t.co/bxI8X2CaNM

$BTC

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

I’m starting to perceive this as a rising broadening wedge rather than a rising channel.

The trend isn't necessarily getting stronger—it's getting wider.

Expanding volatility while making higher highs often reflects increasing disagreement between buyers and sellers.

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

@TedPillows Can also get worse, before it bottoms

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

I covered this scenario before the headlines. Full analysis:

https://t.co/AZM9hxkdoE

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Brent Crude Oil surges 5% to $100 after President Trump threatens "massive attack" on Iran.

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

This report also builds on my previous research:
• Macro Compression and the Next Liquidity Event
https://t.co/sJRIujntSR

• Bitcoin: Is this no longer a Rising Channel?
https://t.co/ZYwdZtYafp

The thesis is evolving. The framework remains the same.

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

The market may be underestimating the lagged impact of #oil on PCE—and if inflation proves stickier than expected, the liquidity everyone is waiting for may not arrive anytime soon.

Read the full report below.

https://t.co/AZM9hxkdoE

[AEP @aepsyndicate]

In my latest research, I cover:

• Why PCE matters more than CPI
• Why I'm still in capital preservation
• Why I don't think $ETH is going anywhere anytime soon
• Where $2B and $5B of leveraged longs are sitting
• Why the next 1H pullback matters more than the next breakout