AFPAK Diary

AfPak Diary is an independent, non-partisan publication tracking the security, politics, diplomacy, and social shifts shaping Afghanistan and Pakistan.

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

Russia’s Deputy PM Overchuk Seals $103 Million Trade Deals in Kabul
https://t.co/YklDReafg7

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

“Washington is left to explain whether its intelligence community is tacitly sanctioning Pakistan’s recruitment of U.S.-based former Republic generals to pressure Kabul, or whether federal authorities are failing to monitor exiled figures conducting foreign military operations from under the shield of American residency. Meanwhile, for Islamabad, the leaks strip away any remaining plausible deniability: even as Pakistan petitions the international community as a victim of cross-border militancy, its security apparatus is actively scripting the next phase of proxy warfare inside Afghanistan.”

Read more: https://t.co/wtMu7OcBe9

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

Audio Leaks Expose U.S.-Based Afghan General’s Cross-Border War Plans from Inside Pakistan https://t.co/wnGNQVgtx1

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

Leaked Audio Exposes U.S.-Based Afghan General’s Failed Plan to Capture Nuristan from Inside Pakistan

Voice notes and a video statement released between Nov 6 and Nov 8 by Taliban-run media platform Voice of Hindukush have exposed a thwarted October plan by U.S.-based former Afghan general Sami Sadat to launch a cross-border military campaign into eastern Afghanistan.

The exchanges between Sadat, leader of the Afghanistan United Front (AUF), and detained former Laghman police commander Allah Dad Fidaie reveal a proxy operation entirely dependent on Rawalpindi, alongside a glaring gap between exiled ambitions and ground realities.

Key Takeaways:

Pakistani Sanctuary: Sadat admits he relocated from the West to Pakistan for roughly 40 days to oversee the campaign, citing an agreement with Pakistani authorities to establish bases and move supplies up to the frontier.

Smuggling & Helicopter Support: "There is no ammunition inside Afghanistan, but everything is available here in the neighboring country," Sadat tells Fidaie. They planned to test smuggling routes from Bajaur and Dir into Nuristan using rocket shells before moving drones and heavy weapons. Sadat even instructed Fidaie to scout flat mountain landing zones so Pakistani helicopters or aircraft could drop ammunition once fighting began.

Grand Plans on a $37k Budget: Operating via voice notes with no standing ground force and just 2.5M AFN (~$37,000), Sadat mapped out a conventional campaign to capture all of Nuristan: seizing Waigal to cut the road to Parun, taking Mandol and Barg-e-Matal, and blowing up a bridge in Nurgaram alongside Friday attacks into Laghman and Kunar. The entire offensive collapsed before a shot was fired when Taliban forces arrested Fidaie weeks ago.

Opposition Infighting: Sadat mocks Yasin Zia’s Freedom Front as cowardly and inept after they lost ~70 fighters infiltrating from Chitral. Fidaie dismisses both the Freedom Front and Amrullah Saleh’s Green Trend as staging brief shootings solely to generate propaganda and raise diaspora cash.

Public Backtracking: Following the Nov 6 leaks, the AUF flatly denied any connection to Fidaie, only to reverse course the next day and confirm he was a "capable and trusted" commander.

For Islamabad, the leaks strip away plausible deniability over its cross-border proxy strategy. For the exiled opposition, outsourcing their survival to Pakistan has handed Kabul an intelligence windfall, exposing a movement compromised abroad, fractured within, and penetrated on the ground.

Full analysis coming soon on our website. Stay tuned!

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

During the CIS Security Council meeting, Sergei Shoigu made his point clear: Afghanistan's internal situation directly affects the security of Central Asia. Because of this, Moscow sees cooperating with the Afghan government on security and the economy as a practical necessity. As far as Russia is concerned, the current leadership in Kabul is just the reality on the ground, and they have to work with it.

That stance takes on a different meaning in light of the recently leaked audio from former Afghan general Sami Sadat. While Sadat lives in the US, the recordings suggest he has spent the last 40 days in Pakistan after cutting a deal with the Pakistani military for logistics and training bases. In the audio, he talks openly about drawing weapons and ammunition from Pakistani reserves, establishing smuggling routes into Nuristan and Laghman, and preparing to attack the current Afghan government.

Given Sadat’s connections in Washington and the freedom he currently enjoys in Pakistan, Shoigu’s focus on regional stability looks like a pointed message to both Islamabad and the US. Moscow believes Pakistan is becoming a staging ground for a new proxy warfare against the Afghan government. By speaking up now, Russia is signaling that they see this not just as a localized border dispute, but as a genuine threat to the entire region.

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

During the CIS Security Council meeting, Sergei Shoigu made his point clear: Afghanistan's internal situation directly affects the security of Central Asia. Because of this, Moscow sees cooperating with the Afghan government on security and the economy as a practical necessity. As far as Russia is concerned, the current leadership in Kabul is just the reality on the ground, and they have to work with it.

That stance takes on a different meaning in light of the recently leaked audio from former Afghan general Sami Sadat. While Sadat lives in the US, the recordings suggest he has spent the last 40 days in Pakistan after cutting a deal with the Pakistani military for logistics and training bases. In the audio, he talks openly about drawing weapons and ammunition from Pakistani reserves, establishing smuggling routes into Nuristan and Laghman, and preparing to attack the current Afghan government.

Given Sadat’s connections in Washington and the freedom he currently enjoys in Pakistan, Shoigu’s focus on regional stability looks like a pointed message to both Islamabad and the US. Moscow believes Pakistan is becoming a staging ground for a new proxy warfare against the Afghan government. By speaking up now, Russia is signaling that they see this not just as a localized border dispute, but as a genuine threat to the entire region.

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

BLA Releases FPV Drone Footage Claiming Strikes on Pakistani Forces Across Balochistan
https://t.co/zmCXhNWGDR

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

AFPAK Monitoring desk: Our open-source review of the Balochistan Liberation Army’s latest Hakkal footage confirms a major tactical shift: the group’s QAHR aerial unit is now fielding 10-inch commercial FPV quadcopters rigged with PG-7V and Type 69-1 anti-tank warheads across five districts.

From an operational standpoint, Pakistan’s counterinsurgency posture in Balochistan is entering a far more dangerous phase. By pairing standoff FPV strikes with ground ambushes, insurgents are bypassing the military's recent investments in perimeter thermal optics and armored patrol vehicles. Worse for Rawalpindi, the economics of force protection are upside down. Outfitting hundreds of remote Frontier Corps checkposts and supply convoys with reliable electronic warfare jammers is beyond Pakistan’s current fiscal and logistical capacity.

With the Baloch Republican Guards launching their own drone wing and TTP factions expanding armed quadcopter attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Islamabad faces a two-front aerial threat that leaves static camps and highway patrols increasingly exposed.

Read the full monitoring report in the reply below. ⬇️

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

BLA Releases FPV Drone Footage Claiming Strikes on Pakistani Forces Across Balochistan https://t.co/zmCXhNXetp

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

Audio Leak Links Sami Sadat’s Nuristan Plot to Arms Stockpiles in Pakistan
https://t.co/8LMeR0z886

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

Counter-terrorism or resource capture? Following Maulana Fazlur Rehman's public break with the establishment, we break down the institutional motives behind Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa emergency and the collapse of the military's Afghan narrative.

Read full analysis here: https://t.co/4Am7VVMedi

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

Pakistan’s civil-military rift is entering a new phase. In a significant break from the state's official security narrative, veteran political insider Maulana Fazlur Rehman has publicly linked the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa emergency to institutional resource capture rather than external threats.

His assessment suggests that the 2023 Afghan peace track was deliberately abandoned to maintain a low-intensity conflict, providing the legal cover needed to bypass provincial autonomy and cement an unaccountable governance model.

As domestic opposition unifies and international stakeholders like Russia validate Kabul’s stabilization efforts, Islamabad's strategy faces unprecedented scrutiny.

Full analysis of this widening fracture is coming soon on our website.

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

Pakistan must be seething over the incompetent proxies it bankrolled to fight the Afghan government.

First Yasin Zia and his failed incursion from Chitral into Nuristan, and now Sami Sadaat’s audio leaks.

They didn’t just expose themselves. They handed Kabul a major win against Pakistan, giving them hard evidence of Islamabad’s support for these proxies that the Afghan side will milk to the fullest to expose Pakistan regionally and internationally.

These same people couldn’t get it done even with full NATO backing against the Afghan Taliban. Now Pakistan is counting on them to topple the government in Kabul.

Good luck with that.

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

Fact-Check: Assessing Unverified Claims of a Sino-Russian Shift on the Islamic Emirate https://t.co/EbKzbBAtEH

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

FACT-CHECK: AfPak Diary’s Verification Desk has investigated viral claims by French outlet Intelligence Online alleging that China and Russia are downgrading ties with the Islamic Emirate and being courted by Pakistan to back anti-Afghan militant groups.

With zero diplomatic backing from Beijing or Moscow, our forensic audit exposes the outlet’s deep links to French intelligence and a troubling history of laundering state-backed smear campaigns and influence operations.

Read the full forensic breakdown in the reply below:

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

A newly leaked audio recording has exposed United Front leader Sami Sadat’s plans for a militant offensive in eastern Afghanistan, while simultaneously highlighting his deep reliance on Pakistan.

In the intercept, Sadat is heard discussing a tactical sequence with an Afghanistan-based commander to capture the Waigal district, sever the supply road to Parun, and ultimately destabilize Nuristan province. Crucially, he confirms that the operation's drones and heavy military hardware are stockpiled in Pakistan, noting plans to test the cross-border smuggling route by moving rocket shells first.

The logistical claims in the audio are further anchored by visual evidence placing Sadat physically in Pakistan to coordinate these efforts. An image recently published on social media shows him personally decorating a United Front commander whose network operates openly out of Balochistan. Since it is highly improbable that he traveled to the United States for such an event, the photograph serves as concrete proof of Sadat's presence across the border. Recording operational directives and hosting leadership ceremonies alongside active military stockpiles points directly to a highly permissive environment on Pakistani soil.

Beyond the tactical specifics of the Nuristan plot, the recording exposes a glaring regional contradiction. Islamabad continues to offer sanctuary and logistical backing for proxy factions operating against Kabul, even as it actively petitions the international community as a primary victim of cross-border terrorism.

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

FPV drones mark a dangerous escalation for Pakistan’s security.

The shift is already in motion. Over the past year, the TTP adapted commercial quadcopters to drop explosives on checkpoints and convoys in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. But the BLA has advanced the timeline. Its QAHR unit is now actively deploying FPV drones against military positions in Balochistan. These systems are faster, more precise, and increasingly armed with anti-tank warheads.

This escalation is critical. The limited air defenses currently deployed in the province are fundamentally ill-equipped to intercept FPV systems. Unlike standard quadcopters, these drones can track moving vehicles, systematically probe defensive perimeters, and pin troops down indefinitely. For a Pakistani military apparatus already overextended by two active insurgencies, this tactic radically drives up the daily operational cost, heightens the risk of mass casualties, and threatens critical logistical arteries.

What began as improvised aerial surveillance is rapidly maturing into an organized, systematic strike capability. As these groups cross-pollinate tactics and technology, the security burden on the state will compound exponentially. This is most acute in Balochistan, where the unforgiving terrain inherently advantages the attacker and degrades conventional responses. The trajectory is clear: Pakistan is entering a highly volatile and significantly more lethal security environment.

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

AfPak Monitoring: Video released by the Baloch Liberation Army’s QAHR unit shows FPV kamikaze drones fitted with RPG warheads conducting repeated strikes on Pakistani military camps and moving convoys in at least five districts of Balochistan, including Surab, Kharan and Kalat.

The group claims the late-October operations killed at least seven personnel, wounded others and destroyed vehicles. The footage depicts strikes on both static positions and road movements, indicating an ability to deliver explosive payloads against hardened sites and mobile forces across a wide area.

Pakistani authorities have so far issued no public confirmation or assessment. The demonstrated capacity to coordinate low-cost FPV attacks against military targets in multiple locations simultaneously raises questions about the increasing difficulty of protecting fixed installations and ensuring safe movement of forces in the province. https://t.co/80RE4kDimd

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

Afghanistan Signs Major Coal and Energy Agreement to Boost Self-Sufficiency
https://t.co/7hJwNDqsHS

[AFPAK Diary @afpakdiary]

Security analysts in Islamabad still treat militancy in Punjab as a sporadic spillover from the western borderlands.

In reality, the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) and its allied factions are executing a patient strategic shift: trading indiscriminate urban bombings for rural recruitment, decentralized command structures, and long-term integration across southern Punjab.

Read more here: https://t.co/5RrB0oopqX