afrers

Agustin

[Mati Fernandez @matifer]

Me pareció tan confuso todo el debate sobre la mora en la Argentina, que no me quedó otra que bajarme la totalidad de la base de deudores del Banco Central y me pasé 48hs tratando de entender. Acá lo que encontré: https://t.co/rBLe0uz1zZ

[Lucas Sacerdote🔋 @LucasSacerdote_]

Canadian Solar [Full Investment Thesis]: Everything You Need to Know About $CSIQ

“THE GREAT SOLAR RECKONING”

☀️ 🔋$CSIQ became my largest position earlier this year, after I had been studying the company since 2023.

Here is my 250-page, ~three-hour presentation on Canadian Solar. I made this video to compress the 1,000+ hours of work already done here, hopefully helping speed up the learning curve for anyone interested.☀️🔋

This is not meant to be flawless. It is meant to be done.

I believe $CSIQ is entering one of the most promising periods in its history. With $15B+ in total assets, three multi-billion-dollar businesses spanning solar manufacturing, storage manufacturing, and project development across six continents, and a mere ~$1B market capitalization, Canadian Solar is poised to be one of the top energy performers in 2026.

The market has left this company for dead. But underneath the surface, the foundations of the business have been getting stronger:

- While the solar industry wrongly spent on building overcapacity, Canadian Solar was one of the few companies slowing down and investing upstream into its project development arm.

- While everyone looked to globalize supply chains, Canadian Solar has been building its manufacturing presence in the U.S. since 2023.

- While much of the industry was still debating battery storage, Canadian Solar was already building gigawatt-scale projects in 2021. Today, it is reaping the benefits of having been a first mover.

This is the story of a company that, despite operating in a ruthless and complicated industry, has consistently been deliberate and rational in its capital allocation decisions.

It remains founder-led, with the founder still owning ~20% of the company. Shareholder value creation will always be top of mind, regardless of the market’s current irrationality.

The solar industry, like every commodity industry, is deeply cyclical. I am convinced we have already seen the worst of it, and that better profitability is ahead for equipment manufacturers. This is already starting to show in CSI Solar’s Q1 2026 results, with $100M+ in operating profit for the quarter.

The supply-demand imbalance for electricity should result in excess profitability.

$CSIQ is about to make the undeniable obvious: Canadian Solar is a Western (actually, global) leader in renewable energy. Not middle of the pack. At the very top.

They produce ~25 GW of solar modules per year and ~15 GWh of storage per year. For reference, the entire U.S. added roughly 60 GW of total generation capacity in 2025.

And they do not only manufacture. They also develop, engineer, construct, and operate billions of dollars of energy assets. That creates a powerful learning and feedback loop between manufacturing and operations, allowing them to stay ahead of the curve. Their BESS experience is the clearest example.

At first glance, my estimates and projections may look overly optimistic. But I would ask you to take the time to analyze each one individually. I think you will see that even my bull case uses assumptions that many people already treat as base case assumptions for comparable companies such as $FLNC, $TE, $FSLR, $AMRC, $NXT, and others.

My base case assumes roughly half the profitability the industry expects from peers, and still results in an ~10x investment opportunity.

Not growing into it. Worth that today.

Please feel free to share your thoughts, feedback, questions, and pushback!! ☀️☀️🔋🔋

Timeline CSIQ:
0:00 Introduction
1:38 Executive Summary
11:35 Macro
18:15 Corporate History
21:00 Management & Team
25:10 Solar Industry & Market
42:47 CSI Solar - the $7B solar behemoth $CSIQ owns
57:00 Project Demand - CSI Solar
1:00:05 BESS Subsidiary with Multi-GWh Firm Orders
1:05:35 Project Demand for e-Storage/BESS
1:11:44 Recurrent Energy - The Multi-Billion Renewable Project Developer
1:34:36 US Manufacturing - 10GWs of Capacity and First Ever to Produce Solar Cells Domestically
1:56:15 Competitors
2:19:29 Litigation
2:28:32 Quality
2:30:52 Valuation & Financial Analysis
2:40:40 Conclusion
2:43:15 Miscellaneous

Disclaimer: This post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell $CSIQ or any other security mentioned here. I am not a registered investment advisor (RIA). Always do your own research (DYOR). I and/or accounts under my management or discretion, may currently hold positions in $CSIQ and may purchase or sell shares at any time without further notice. My opinions, price targets, and allocation suggestions are my personal views and can change without prior notice. Investing in stocks involves a significant risk of loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

If you found this useful, follow me for more deep dives like this. I spend a ridiculous amount of time studying this whole ecosystem.

Please like and share this post if you think more people should be aware of how attractive Canadian Solar could be as an investment opportunity.

[afrers @afrers1]

@SergioChouza Pelado culo rotoooo

[afrers @afrers1]

@SergioChouza @CFKArgentina pelado sucio

[ElBuni @therealbuni]

Pagni : por tu culpa Argentina debe 16,000 millones de dolares, te arrepentis?

kicillof : no

lo volverías a hacer?

- si

Tenes alguna autocritica de vos?

-ninguna

[afrers @afrers1]

Que semana dificil para no estar en buenos aires la concha de mi madre

[Ataque Futbolero @AtaqueFutbolero]

Mejor foto que tengas de hoy.

Abro hilo.

[afrers @afrers1]

@lucasadrogue Fue mano shoron

[afrers @afrers1]

@mateo_caliz Zurdito encubierto

[Boca Juniors - La12Tuittera @la12tuittera]

🇦🇷🔟🙌🏻

[Carlos Maslatón @CarlosMaslaton]

Celebramos, bailamos y cantamos!

[Chipi Peres @chipiperes]

@andypadula1

[En Una Baldosa @enunabaldosa]

¿Qué es El Diego?

[afrers @afrers1]

@cmontenegro0 10am y ya siesta... mira vos la uca lpm

[afrers @afrers1]

@mateo_caliz @SantosBaIIester Responde la pregunta flaco

[Manuel Adorni @madorni]

Adorni - Este policía 2023

[afrers @afrers1]

Que locura tanto resentimiento

[LA NACION @LANACION]

Santa Fe: le rompieron un silobolsa y rociaron un producto al grano: perdió $1,5 millones https://t.co/FGyrSDSX2o

[afrers @afrers1]

De lo peor que hay hablar sin saber. Que tanto mas inteligente es no hablar.

[afrers @afrers1]

@edumorgan_ Nueva crisis para el pilgrims?