A. Gary Shilling

Economist, forecaster, beekeeper

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

Elevated #inflation, a weak #employment report this morning...among the challenges facing a newly-hawkish #FederalReserve, as discussed in my latest INSIGHT newsletter. https://t.co/wQ5ETlcvMb

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

Kevin Warsh chairs his first federalreserve fomc meeting next week as #inflation remains elevated. I see no rate cuts in the offing--next week or this year, most likely. My INSIGHT newsletter details the challenges facing Fed policymakers. insight@ https://t.co/mNbb5oZBwB

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

Enjoyed my conversation with davidlin_TV about recent events in #Venezuela as well as the #stockmarket, #interestrates and the #fedlankılıcaslan https://t.co/Wpax6ayRBd…

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

What's keeping #consumer spending relatively healthy despite #Affordability issues? Accumulation of lots of #Debt. It's spelled out in my recent INSIGHT newsletter. https://t.co/wQ5ETlbXWD

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

Many #recessionindicators are flashing red! They're spelled out in my current INSIGHT report. Trump's attacks on #FederalReserve independence raises plenty of red flags! They're also spelled out in this month's INSIGHT report. https://t.co/wQ5ETlbXWD

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

12 #recessions in the post-WWII period--8 between 1945 and 1985, but only 4 int he last 40 years. Why? Several factors: healthy #consumerspending, generous government help and a more activist #FederalReserve. My latest INSIGHT report has the details. https://t.co/wQ5ETlcvMb

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

Expedia, Airbnb, HiltonHotels report reduced travel. Canada-to-US bookings down 30%. NYC expects big decline in int'l visitors in '25 + US is on track to lose $12.5b in int'l travel spending. My INSIGHT newsletter examines the travel/tourism industry. https://t.co/wQ5ETlbXWD

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

The once-mighty #Magnificent7 stox are collectively down 9% YTD. Only Meta is up YTD (+12%) while the rest are down, led by the biggest loser #TSLA, down a whopping 30% YTD. I've been warning for months to avoid speculative stocks like Mag 7. https://t.co/wQ5ETlbXWD

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

federalreserve tightening usually leads to #recession when it precipitates the collapse of major imbalances, like the dotcom boom, the subprime mortgage bubble, etc. With no comparable imbalances now, a soft landing is a 50% to 60% probability. https://t.co/wQ5ETlcvMb

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

I see 3 major sources of slow global economic growth in the years ahead—and 1 partial offset to those economic drags. My October INSIGHT newsletter provides all the detail. https://t.co/wQ5ETlcvMb

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

Enjoyed talking with davidlin_TV about a range of topics--the economy, federalreserve rate cuts, jobs market, #housing, China, stocks, asset allocation and speculative stocks. https://t.co/CRsnESv7ds…

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

Always a pleasure talking about the economy and the outlook with @ DennisTubbergen
https://t.co/BqksmSXeeV…

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

My thoughst on the Fed, the economy, interets rates, employment...
https://t.co/YBPGrJKXW4…

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

Why should the federalreserve cut rates? The #economy is growing and #inflation is still high. So there's no real pressure to cut; I think they're going to take their good, sweet time. And if there are no cuts this year, I wouldn't be surprised. https://t.co/wQ5ETlbXWD

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

The head of “Bitcoin Strategy” for a publicly traded company recently DM’d me to say that his team have been using this document as a reference.

If you haven’t already, I invite you to go through and read it.

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

Earlier this week, SAP's CFO highlighted growing customer concern about where AI models come from and where data is processed.

For $PATH, this reinforces an important part of the vendor-neutral thesis.

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

$MSTR is a device for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

One framework I use when assessing management comes from William Thorndike’s The Outsiders.

Outsiders are leaders who think and operate differently from conventional corporate managers.

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

One thing that stood out to me during the $PATH Q2 earnings call was the emphasis on scale.

Two quotes that really caught my attention.

“So the opportunity now is to scale what we’ve built, expanding adoption across our customer base, extending our reach into the business

[A. Gary Shilling @agaryshlling]

At the $PATH Investor Day in September, Daniel Dines described $PATH's Maestro as "Generation 3" orchestration built on Temporal.

More importantly, he claimed UiPath is the only scaled company doing business process orchestration on Temporal.