CalAg

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@rev_cap The past is a foreign country...

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@TheStalwart https://t.co/r7abK7e9MQ

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@TheStalwart "we find that rising wealth concentration has reduced the average propensity to consume out of wealth"
https://t.co/eJiVYXZ4z0

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@sidprabhu https://t.co/QcbxQpA7Cd

^ a good read on this history

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@tierrapartners That bet might work if the corporate profit share resets higher at new high plateau… it might fail if disruption undermines margins and/or multiples and resi real estate emerges as a safe-haven ‘HALO’ real asset class/positional good

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@tierrapartners US households are paying up to buy a cashflow stream that has historically earned less with more volatility than Resi RE…

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@tylermacro10 https://t.co/MkAVt44Sj4

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@tylermacro10 https://t.co/zli7WQZQxz

[tekprime @tekprime99]

Dave Ramsey tells 62 year old with $3,5000,000 he can retire and running out of money would be impossible

Dave: “Do you have a 401(k) nest egg?”

Caller: “I've got 401(k)s and IRAs. No pension”

Dave: “How much is in all those accounts?”

Caller: “$3,500,000”

Dave: “What do you make a year?”

Caller: “$175,000”

Dave: “You understand that $3.5 million invested in good growth stock mutual funds, if it averaged 10%, would produce $350,000 in income without touching the nest egg. Which is twice what you make now”

Caller: “But there are still going to be years when it's up and years when it's down”

Dave: “The down years very seldom are below 5%. Hardly ever. Maybe don't take the whole $350,000. Maybe take $200,000 and let it grow by $150,000 to cover the down years. It's impossible for you to go through this money before you die”

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@mattyglesias https://t.co/aMwu5KOSg3

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@Brad_Setser @adam_tooze great line… a second, related point. In the US when our companies rise by trillions in market value few foreigners actually FX hedge and more foreigners buy our equities. The inverse of Korea

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@Brad_Setser @erasmios same with the equity outflows… it is really pretty remarkable how relatively symmetric the trade and portfolio equity flows have been

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@sidprabhu https://t.co/pGpXqySnfU

[Jeffrey J. Hall 🇯🇵🇺🇸 @mrjeffu]

Another viral "poor Japan" story: these American tourists are praising the "unbelievable" cheapness of what most Japanese people would consider an expensive meal.
They plan to spend nearly $10,000 on a 6 day trip to Tokyo.

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@Brad_Setser great thread… what is the appropriate measure of external financing cost in a portfolio equity-financed boom? ex-post equity returns have been very costly for the US NIIP… but the S&P 500 div yield is just ~1.1%

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@tylermacro10

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@MikeFellman The gov did create the 30y mortgage market structure -but are 30y FRMs still subsidized? The benchmark 30y FRM is ~6.5% vs. a typical UK 5y at 4.6% (despite higher UK policy rates and bond yields). GSEs are very profitable and pass on most duration risk. Consumer pay rate premium

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@DrCameronMurray In the US we’ve got data centers, deficits, and doctors

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@AzizSunderji @tylermacro10 @UrbanDigs

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@AzizSunderji Manhattan house prices have never been this cheap vs. the average implied wealth per household in Manhattan.
@tylermacro10

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@tylermacro10 why do you think bond holders accept such low returns?

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@tylermacro10 @dopamine_uptake @MikeFritzell Leveraged ETF rebalancing ran at ~$100b per month in April and nearly that in May per Flows & Liquidity’s estimates… about the same run rate as S&P 500 buybacks per month

[CalAg @agmacro2]

@tylermacro10 @dopamine_uptake @MikeFritzell