“One must imagine Sisyphus happy.” — Camus
I believe AI carries existential risk. Historically civilizations often decay after unmatched success, when struggle disappears, purpose erodes. I worry less about machines ending us than about humanity losing its reason to keep going.
I dropped out of a PhD in AI safety partially for the opposite reason. I didn’t believe AI existential risk was as important as the doomers think.
My biggest pet peeve is that no one can really provide tangible pathways to why it matters.
During my PhD, my research group (half of whom specialized in engineering risk analysis) did an internal study trying to assess concrete catastrophic AI scenarios.
The basic premise was that while we don’t know how AI will evolve, the ways in which humans perish are pretty consistent through history: the horsemen of the apocalypse. And institutions have obviously been very motivated to analyze concrete risks from things like plague, war, etc.
You can do a decent risk model by asking how a super-intelligent AI can perturb each of those models.
The result: most of the issues (eg cyber-risk) are akin to what economists call structural unemployment - big problems but ultimately resolvable in the long run and not a dealbreaker.
The only real concerning issue was bio-risk and it feels like the intervention points there lie more with bio than with AI as a whole (although a holistic approach is needed).
As I’m listening, I keep thinking about the massive global consensus we’ve managed to build around climate change and nuclear weapons. I’m sure this will follow the same stellar path to success. https://t.co/W3p54coTPN
@dwarkesh_sp We never reached global consensus on nuclear weapons or climate change. We are not going to get it on this either, especially when the stakes are this high and the winner could potentially take all. It would be foolish to pause.
👇Yes, there is cyber. But eventually, this is what matters more: making the world a little better. Even if only by a little bit. All in service for humanity.
When I first started the @honnoldfound, I was pretty much a dirtbag climber living out of my van in Yosemite and pursuing my goals in climbing. But I also knew that I wanted to do something a bit more useful in the world. So for our work at HF to be recognized by @TIME, not just because of my climbing, is pretty neat.
So far, we've committed more than $23M to support 200+ solar projects across 20+ countries, from the United States to the Amazon. But there's still a massive pipeline of need out there.
One of our main goals is to not trying to build an endowment, because there's no point in saving for some future day when there's so much potential tosupport communities, right now. Any gift we get goes straight to Partners' projects. So if you're someone who wants to see some good happen in the world, consider making a donation to HF, and we'll keep funding more good work.
You can also read the full article to learn more about HF's latest work and hear a few examples from our partner projects.
Oh, and It feels important to mention that the real trailblazers are the community leaders who champion solar solutions in their communities.
https://t.co/6WchmR2lbs
We’re entering an era of explosive knowledge growth while understanding only a fraction of it. As science becomes a black box useful and verifiable, yet beyond individual comprehension. We may trust what we cannot fully understand, pushing science to religion or even magic.
Imagine AI creating new financial instruments that human intelligence is unable to understand. We will be like horses in a market – a horse can see money being exchanged and new owners taking it home, but it is unable to comprehend what is happening.
From the @nytopinion podcast with @ezraklein. Watch the whole episode: https://t.co/vezfpz5PjP
@patrick_kuhnke_ On average there is only one or maybe two really good developers on a team in most companies . I am not talking about all human - just developers. That has been my experience over the last 20 years. Oh these are apps are not getting into production you are right.
@patrick_kuhnke_ That is interesting, are we talking about average human producing code or elite developer. Vastly different. AI coding is a practice not just a prompt to produce code. If one follows it as practice you get much higher quality code that is my experience.