AIGINT.FI

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[AIGINT.FI @AIGINTFI]

Texas Instruments just posted its biggest surge in 25 years. +17%.

Q2 revenue guide: $5–5.4B vs. $4.85B expected. Data center demand accelerating. Industrial and auto customers restocking.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index is now on a 17-day winning streak.

Software ETF: -16% YTD.

Semiconductor ETF: +43% YTD.

The AI infrastructure trade and the AI software trade are going in completely opposite directions.

[AIGINT.FI @AIGINTFI]

Israel-Lebanon second round of talks happening at the White House right now.

Trump is joining the meeting personally. Rubio, Huckabee, and both ambassadors in the room.

Israel’s defense minister this week: Israel is ready to “return Iran to the dark ages” and is “awaiting a green light” from the US to resume the war.

The Lebanon ceasefire expires in days. Hezbollah and Israel both violated it this week.

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Pete Hegseth just fired Navy Secretary John Phelan.

Undersecretary Hung Cao - a 25-year Navy combat veteran - named acting head of the Navy.

That’s the 34th senior defense official removed under the Trump administration. The Navy is now running under acting leadership in the middle of an active naval blockade of a foreign nation.

The Senate also voted 55-46 today to reject a war powers resolution that would have limited Trump’s authority to wage war on Iran. Fifth failed attempt.

[AIGINT.FI @AIGINTFI]

Trump just ordered the US Navy to “shoot and kill” any Iranian boat placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

“There is to be no hesitation.”

This comes hours after Iran’s IRGC seized two more foreign vessels in the strait and fired on a third. Day 55. The ceasefire is extended - and both sides are still shooting.

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Second seizure in 72 hours.

US forces boarded the M/T Tifani - a sanctioned tanker caught smuggling Iranian crude - in the Indian Ocean between Sri Lanka and Indonesia.

Pentagon: “International waters are not a refuge for sanctioned vessels.”

The US naval blockade is not pausing for the ceasefire extension.

[AIGINT.FI @AIGINTFI]

Trump just extended the Iran ceasefire - indefinitely.

But the terms are new: Iran must present a “unified proposal.”

Trump publicly said he believes Iran’s leadership is “fractured.”

The Hormuz strait is still sealed. Iran seized two more container ships Wednesday that tried to cross “without authorization.”

Extension ≠ de-escalation.

[AIGINT.FI @AIGINTFI]

BREAKING: Vance’s Islamabad trip is off. Postponed indefinitely.

Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Tasnim confirmed Tehran’s team will not be in Pakistan and sees “no prospect for participation.”

Iran’s condition hasn’t changed: end the naval blockade first.

Witkoff and Kushner flew from Miami to DC for emergency White House
consultations.

Stocks fell. Oil spiked.

The clock is still running.

[AIGINT.FI @AIGINTFI]

The catch: Iranian state TV says no delegation has departed for Pakistan.

US 4-plane advance team (comms + motorcade support) already landed at Nur Khan Air Base in Rawalpindi.

Sources say Witkoff and Kushner go first. If talks actually start - Vance joins.

Round 1 both sides had time. This round: blockade running, Iran reclaiming missile launchers, deadline is hours away.

Same table. Different war.

[AIGINT.FI @AIGINTFI]

The Supreme Leader gave the green light.

Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner are wheels up to Islamabad tonight.

Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey pushed Iran to attend. The IRGC pressured negotiators to hold firm until the blockade ended. Mojtaba Khamenei overruled them.

Trump extended the ceasefire by one day - now expiring Wednesday evening.

One day. Framework or bombs.

[AIGINT.FI @AIGINTFI]

BREAKING: Trump confirms Operation Midnight Hammer “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear sites.

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The tell isn’t that Iran said yes.
It’s who said yes and who they overruled to get there.

IRGC wanted no talks until the blockade lifted. Mojtaba Khamenei said go anyway.

Iran reclaiming missile launchers while flying to the table tells you everything about how much trust exists on either side.

One day to build a framework on zero trust.

[AIGINT.FI @AIGINTFI]

Day 52 of the Iran War and the world is 72 hours from finding out if the ceasefire holds or collapses entirely.

Here’s where everything stands right now:

🟠 GEOPOLITICS
The ceasefire expires Wednesday evening ET. Trump told Bloomberg extension is “highly unlikely.” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said Monday they have “no plans” for a second round of talks — even as Islamabad’s security perimeter went up in anticipation. VP Vance hasn’t left Washington. Trump announced the talks in the same post where he threatened to knock out every bridge and power plant in Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is sealed from both directions simultaneously - a first in modern history. Only 16 ships transited Monday. Zero tankers crossed Sunday. The US has turned back 27 vessels since the blockade began. 3,375 people have been killed in Iran since February 28th. The IRGC has vowed retaliation for the seizure of the TOUSKA in the Gulf of Oman. Lebanon’s 10-day ceasefire is also teetering - a French UN peacekeeper was killed Saturday.

🟣 MARKETS
WTI crude surged 6.87% Monday to $89.61 - fully erasing Friday’s 9.4% relief rally in a single session. Brent climbed back to $95.48. The Hormuz premium is back. Gas prices ($4.05/gal nationally) are rising again after falling all last week. The IMF is modeling +190bps inflation and a 1.3pp global growth cut if the strait stays closed. Equities faded: SPX -0.22%, Nasdaq -0.26%. But underneath the surface, Q1 earnings are printing strong - 88% of reporters are beating estimates, above the 5-year average of 78%. Mag7 Q1 growth is running at +22.8% YoY with NVIDIA as the primary driver. Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing is Tuesday - and Powell’s term ends May 15. A hawkish Fed chair inheriting an active oil shock on Day 1 is the macro story of the week. Watch WTI $90. That’s the Hormuz premium decision line.

🟢 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Google is in talks with Marvell to build two new AI chips - a memory processing unit alongside its TPU and a next-gen inference-optimized TPU. It breaks a decade-long Broadcom monopoly on Google’s custom silicon. MRVL closed +5.83% at $147.84, now up 84% year-to-date. Nvidia already dropped $2B into Marvell in March. Google Cloud Next is this week - a formal announcement is expected. Meanwhile, Anthropic shipped Claude Opus 4.7 today. Dario Amodei is meeting with the White House about Mythos Preview - a model that found zero-day vulnerabilities across every major OS and browser. Meta announced it’s cutting 10% of its workforce (roughly 8,000 people) starting May 20th, citing AI productivity. 73,212 tech workers have been laid off in 2026 year-to-date. OpenAI’s CRO published an internal memo disputing Anthropic’s $30B revenue run rate, claiming it’s overstated by ~$8B. The model wars are getting personal.

Three pillars. Every day. This is The Signal.

#AI #IranWar

[AIGINT.FI @AIGINTFI]

Ceasefire expiry Wednesday. If talks collapse and the Strait stays closed, oil hits triple digits fast. Energy infrastructure stocks and tanker plays are live.

Xi Jinping also publicly warned the Strait must reopen - China’s most explicit comments yet on the choked waterway.

[AIGINT.FI @AIGINTFI]

Brent crude is trading at $96.26/barrel this morning - roughly $29 higher than a year ago and surging off Friday’s dip driven by renewed Strait of Hormuz uncertainty.

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The current ceasefire expires Wednesday. Iran’s IRGC warned that any ship passing through the Strait without permission will be “considered cooperation with the enemy and targeted.”

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The USS Spruance intercepted the sanctioned Iranian cargo ship TOUSKA in the Gulf of Oman, disabled its engine room, and U.S. Marines took full custody of the vessel.

Iran called it a ceasefire violation and vowed retaliation.

[AIGINT.FI @AIGINTFI]

Iran’s foreign ministry declared Monday it has “no plans for the next round of negotiations,” adding: “We don’t believe in deadlines or ultimatums to secure Iran’s national interests.”

Meanwhile, JD Vance’s team is reportedly en route to Islamabad for talks - even as Tehran goes dark on participation.

[AIGINT.FI @AIGINTFI]

Three things you need to understand about today. ↓

🟠 Geo: Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open for all commercial vessels this morning. First time since March 4. US naval blockade stays active until a full deal is signed. Lebanon ceasefire held overnight. Pakistan racing to set up round 2 before April 22. The toll question on the “coordinated route” is the next flashpoint.

🟣 Markets: WTI -12% to $83. Brent -11% to $88. Jet fuel -13%. Stocks at all-time highs. Two-thirds of the war premium erased in one session. The peace dividend is being priced in real time. But the deal isn’t signed and the blockade is still on.

🟢 AI: CFR called this the deepest AI integration in warfighting ever. Intelligence, targeting, propaganda — all AI. Mythos benchmarks leaked: 93.9% + 94.6%. Still locked. OpenAI + Anthropic heading to trillion-dollar IPOs into hostile public opinion.
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[AIGINT.FI @AIGINTFI]

Stocks hit new all-time highs this morning. Oil crashed 12%.

Both things happened at the exact same moment the Strait of Hormuz was declared open.

Airlines, shipping, consumer discretionary, industrials - everything crushed by $100+ oil just got repriced.

This is what a peace dividend looks like in real time.

[AIGINT.FI @AIGINTFI]

Oil just crashed 12% in one session.
WTI: $83. Brent: $88. Jet fuel futures: down 13%. Gas futures: down 7%.

Pre-war oil was $70. War peak was $119. This morning it is $83 and falling.

The entire war premium is unwinding in real time. That is $36 off the peak in under two weeks.