I'm about to close September, probably with a +1.5%.
The market has been quite tough for trading breakouts.
This is the first month I'm trading my Portfolio T system, which is essentially a 3-sleeve system made of Breakouts (my bread and butter), Pullbacks, and QLD Trend Following.
What it does is use the free margin I always had, and add a pullback and a timed index exposure sleeve, to complement my breakouts when tough years for them come along, as 2026 has been the case so far.
You can see below, although I got a few nice breakouts shorts triggering, most of the returns are made by the QLD Trend Following sleeve.
I saw in my 13k+ Breakout signal database since 1995 (manually approved each trade, went through 400k charts myself), that some years breakouts struggle a lot to go, breadth is thin, yet the large cap indices like the QQQ and SPY just dominate and print huge runs...
And that's what we are seeing right now. If I'm profiting starting right now this month, it's because of the timed $QLD Trend Following sleeve.
Don't get me wrong, breakouts are my bread and butter and gave me 120% avg/y since 2020 as you can see in my track record, but it seems like 2026 is more like a "normal" year like most in the past decades.
Trading setups don't work all the time, they are 100% dependent on market phases and regime, the smartest thing to do is to have more than one and diversify market conditions.
It's extremely powerful if done right (system and portfolio building it's skill on itself).
We will see what Q4 brings along here...
BREAKING: The US 30Y Note Yield rises above 5.60% for the first time since June 2002.
That’s another +36 basis points this month alone.
8% mortgages will arrive next week.
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Despite avoiding most tokens, I decided to buy a small position of solana:GTBxUiw6wJdmmkCGZgRHLyYxqu1vG4KtRpeox6yDpump
The reason is simple,
- he went / is going viral on different social media platforms
- people are creating stickers, memes and other visuals with his face
- many try to become a meme like him, he started a wave/trend
- according to his website (which most investors haven‘t read) and socials he is planning more with at least one clear potential catalyst
- @JeanPhilMadame keeps communicating openly about his position and prior fraud allegations, which builds investors trust.
- and people keep guessing if he‘s AI or not, which secures even more attention
His token might reach 100M+ marketcap or even way more. Or goes to zero. We‘ll see.
I just uncovered the biggest serial Rugpulling and Extraction operation on Robinhood
The same operation is linked 53 launches within a 2 month period
Total Extracted: $18.43 MILLION
very likely more this is just what I could directly link
🧵
Despite avoiding most tokens, I decided to buy a small position of solana:GTBxUiw6wJdmmkCGZgRHLyYxqu1vG4KtRpeox6yDpump
The reason is simple,
- he went / is going viral on different social media platforms
- people are creating stickers, memes and other visuals with his face
- many try to become a meme like him, he started a wave/trend
- according to his website (which most investors haven‘t read) and socials he is planning more with at least one clear potential catalyst
- @JeanPhilMadame keeps communicating openly about his position and prior fraud allegations, which builds investors trust.
- and people keep guessing if he‘s AI or not, which secures even more attention
His token might reach 100M+ marketcap or even way more. Or goes to zero. We‘ll see.
Had to stay at home for a couple of days, so I decided to study the memecoin market.
Found out memecoin „trenches“ are not only gambling, but machines to systematically exploit retail investors.
Influencer, platforms and projects orchestrating high volume on new tokens, fake „serious projects“ with vibe coded Software & socials, and plan longterm extraction machines to reach three-digit million marketcaps.
Therefore, when in investing in memecoins, it is important to avoid such tokens and focus on those with real meme character, infrastructure or real assets. Understanding money flows and global risk appetite is the key to successfully invest in high-risk opportunities like memecoins.
And always remember, size is the stop loss.
Had to stay at home for a couple of days, so I decided to study the memecoin market.
Found out memecoin „trenches“ are not only gambling, but machines to systematically exploit retail investors.
Influencer, platforms and projects orchestrating high volume on new tokens, fake „serious projects“ with vibe coded Software & socials, and plan longterm extraction machines to reach three-digit million marketcaps.
Therefore, when in investing in memecoins, it is important to avoid such tokens and focus on those with real meme character, infrastructure or real assets. Understanding money flows and global risk appetite is the key to successfully invest in high-risk opportunities like memecoins.
And always remember, size is the stop loss.
Made over $100K overnight with $JEANPHIL.
I decided to buy this meme because I saw huge potential in its narrative and virality.
Years of experience have taught me just how cooked Solana degens can be. They'll send literally anything like this to the moon.
I'm happy with the move, but I still don't think it's time to take profits.
Still watching how this plays out.
Everyone's cheering the insider buying at $FI (Fiserv). The buying is real. The framing isn't.
The signal is legit — this is not a wash. Over two windows (Dec '25 + Jun '26), the CFO and Chief Legal Officer each bought twice, plus five directors, all open-market, near a quarter of the peak. Those are the people who know the accounting. That's a strong tell.
But "great business priced for disaster" skips what actually happened:
Organic growth cut from ~10% to flat-to-negative for 2026.
A live class action alleges Fiserv force-migrated ~200,000 Payeezy merchants to Clover and booked it as "organic" growth.
The new CEO is absent from the buy list.
So this isn't a wrongly-punished compounder. It's a still-profitable franchise (~$4.4B FCF, ~7x forward earnings) with a broken growth algorithm and ~3x leverage — where informed insiders are buying with conviction, but possibly early.
Insiders buying a fallen angel can work. Just don't confuse the insider signal with a clean business. Separate the two.
Not advice. Read the Form 4s and the last 10-Q yourself.
MY NEXT DOUBLE IN THE STOCK MARKET AND INSIDERS ARE BUYING HEAVILY!.
NOT $SPCX, NOT $TSLA, NOT $PYPL, NOT $NOW
Instead it's: FISERV $FISV
The last major insider accumulation period was around 2021–22, when FISV was trading in the ~$90s.
What happened next?
The stock went on a multi-year tear, eventually reaching $237.79 in March 2025.
Now?
FISV has collapsed 80% from its ATH.
And insiders are stepping in again.
CFO. Chief Legal Officer. Multiple directors.
Millions of dollars of open-market purchases around $48–52.
Meanwhile, Fiserv still has 40.8M shares available under its buyback authorization.
This is what I love to see!
- Insiders buying.
- Massive buyback capacity.
- A great business.
- A stock priced for disaster.
At ~$51, FISV looks like a generational valuation opportunity.
I think this eventually rips back above $100.
Everyone's watching the AI models. The real bottleneck is 1,000 miles away, in a substation in Virginia.
The AI boom's binding constraint isn't chips or capital. It's electricity — and the U.S. states are where you see it first.
Three facts most people miss:
PJM — the grid for Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania — says 94% of its load growth to 2030 comes from data centers. Capacity prices went up ~10x in two years.
Virginia's largest utility already sells 28% of its power to data centers.
The scramble: restarting Three Mile Island for Microsoft, building 4-gigawatt gas plants, cutting behind-the-meter deals — anything to skip the 6-year grid queue.
The money isn't in the hyperscaler. It's one layer back — the people who make the electron: $CEG $VST $GEV $D. Compute, fabs and reshoring all fight over the same scarce kilowatt nobody can build fast enough.
One tell to watch: where regulators force data centers to pay for the grid, the "pipeline" collapses (Ohio's projected new demand fell from 30GW to 5.7GW overnight). The demand is physical. The cost-allocation politics are the risk.
Three AI bosses warned this week we might "lose control."
Their fix? Embed their approved auditors inside the labs — while hyperscaler capex sprints to record levels this year. Nobody is actually braking.
The tell isn't the warning. It's the IPO timing.
Amodei publishes a "slow the frontier" essay — while his own Anthropic races toward a Nasdaq listing within weeks. Altman calls "safety" his reason to delay OpenAI's IPO to 2027.
Same word. Opposite move.
When a warning flips direction depending on the balance sheet, it's not an alarm. It's a moat with a halo.
(Concern can be real and strategic. Usually it's both.)
This is the part most people skip — and I'd extend it in two directions.
1/ Run a different system per game. Momentum breakouts and conviction holds are not the same trade. The rules that make Felipe's EOD momentum work will blow up an account if you point them at a thesis you're holding for months. Systematize each game separately — don't let one bleed into the other.
2/ The system is the asset — not the trade. The documented process is the thing that compounds while any single position is just noise. Especially if you're growing capital you can't afford to zero: the system's first job is survival, not a 400% year. That's the same point from the other side — "controlled inputs = expected outputs" only pays off if you run it for years without touching the dials.
The franchise isn't the store. It's the operating manual.
Systematizing your trading can save your account...
Hear me out on this one.
Most shy away from system trading design, but it can make your life a lot easier when trading.
Most try to trade 100% discretionary. Open the terminal, start looking at what's moving, and try to make decisions on the go:
"Should I buy this one? "
"Should I enter 1, 5, or 10 of these breakouts?"
"When should I get out?"
"Is it extended? I might hit a reversal..."
Your day turns into an emotional, reactive activity you call "trading", being on a bad mood, talking back badly to your family even...
Don't get me wrong, I know most of the highest performers in this arena trade like this and crush it, make huge returns (far better than I do).
But 90% of people are not wired to trade like this and print returns long term.
Most people have jobs, businesses, family to spend time with, and can't be even for a few hours watching charts, let alone make discretionary decisions along the way.
That's why applying systems trading can help you a lot with this. That's what I've been doing for years, and I can't imagine doing it any other way.
The KEY is building rules, backed by data, that bring a statistically positive result.
Do enough of these reps = get % returns with desired volatility.
Nothing else.
Think owning a franchise.
Controlled Inputs = expected outputs.
I have a set of rules on how I trade, and followed my daily process for years, doing the same thing whether I am in a drawdown, at EC highs, or chopping sideways.
I mainly trade momentum breakouts at the end of the day, at the daily close. I avg over 60% per year, and did many 100%+ years since 2020 (check my track record), and I built solid rules on how to scan, choose, execute, and manage them without complicating my life.
All I do is:
- show up 3:40 pm EST
- run my scans
- select signals that meet my criteria
- take positions according to my market model
- manage the risk
- and let the market do the rest
... and just come back the next day and do the same thing, again and again.
That's the power of systematizing your trading.
Sure, you won't get 400% returns.
You won't win trading competitions.
But if you want to grow your wealth at a nice rate, have a life outside trading, and have time for your job/biz/family, I can't see it any other way.
Just talking from experience.
Food for thought 👍