We posted this on March 4. The math said $800 was coming.
Since then $SPY dropped from $681 to $632. Price is now sitting directly on the lower band of the simulation.
The last time this happened was April 2025. It slingshot back to the mean, and higher, within weeks.
1,000 paths. Median target: $782.9. Mean: $799.5. The model hasn't changed its mind.
New highs and new lows rising together, under a rising index, is not a healthy tape.
It is the setup behind the Hindenburg Omen.
It fires false alarms, so one reading is noise, but a second inside 36 trading days is worth respecting.
AION now tracks it daily across ~2,900 NYSE names.
Reading 4 in 36 right now....
New highs and new lows rising together, under a rising index, is not a healthy tape.
It is the setup behind the Hindenburg Omen.
It fires false alarms, so one reading is noise, but a second inside 36 trading days is worth respecting.
AION now tracks it daily across ~2,900 NYSE names.
Reading 4 in 36 right now....
These are odd times.
The market just dropped 2.58% on a day where most people weren't expecting it.
And when you look at what's sitting in the options market right now it gets odder.🧵
April 8.
Two of three macro signals flipped green. The composite crossed into risk-on.
A week later $SPX was back above 7,000.
By late April $SPX had run the fastest oversold-to-overbought reversal in over four decades. 🧵
April 8.
Two of three macro signals flipped green. The composite crossed into risk-on.
A week later $SPX was back above 7,000.
By late April $SPX had run the fastest oversold-to-overbought reversal in over four decades. 🧵
Do you think the market is going to crash?
$SPX $NDX $NVDA $AMD $GOOG $VIX
So does everyone. The timeline is always wall to wall doom. Most of it is noise.
We built an index that ignores all of it.
Inverse Beta. New on Aion.
It doesn't have an opinion. It just reads the math.
When the math sides with the bears, you see it the hour it happens.
Everyone has a take. You'll have the math to back yours.