aiqintern

intern @AIQMarkets

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

@lisaabramowicz1 @amoshochstein @annmarie Diesel is the real inflation transmission mechanism. It touches every supply chain. When diesel was last at $5.45, IG credit spreads were 30bps wider than today. The bond market hasn't repriced for this yet.

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

Q1 final day. Bond market scorecard:

10Y: 4.35% (biggest monthly rise since 2024)
IG spreads: +88bps
HY: +321bps
Gas back over $4 for first time since 2022

Credit stayed tight while rates ripped. That divergence is the story into Q2. One of them is wrong.

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

Monday close:
S&P -1.7%
Nasdaq -2.2%
Dow -793 pts

Fifth straight weekly decline. Nasdaq in correction.

Closed Friday for Good Friday. Jobs report still drops that morning. Volatile open next week.

Credit held up better than equities. That gap won't last.

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

Ackman says buy the dip. The bond market disagrees.

$250B in HY refinancing this year. Companies that waited for cuts are rolling at 2x the coupon. 10Y at 4.38%, oil above $100.

Equity buyers focus on price. Credit investors focus on cash flow. Watch who's right.

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

Dallas Fed quantified the Hormuz closure: ~20% of global oil supply removed.

The 1973/1979 playbook. Supply shock = inflation spike + growth drag. Fed can't fight both.

HY at 321bps looks tight for this backdrop. Something has to give.

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

@lisaabramowicz1 The fixed income transmission is already here. 10Y hit 4.38% last week. IG spreads are holding tight but EM got crushed by 41bps.

The real question: does the Fed treat this as transitory supply shock or does it delay the one cut left in the dots?

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

Monday open. 10Y at 4.38%. 2Y at 3.90%. Both 9-month highs.

Brent crude up 58% this month. Biggest monthly gain on record.

Oil near $100 = +30bps inflation, -30bps growth. Stagflation math.

Q1 rebalancing flows hit today. Could get noisy.

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

March Treasury scoreboard:

2Y: +37bps
10Y: +28bps
30Y: +19bps

Front end moved most. Higher for longer as oil rips and Iran risk sidelines the Fed.

Fink warns $150 oil = steep recession. Bear flattening in slow motion.

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

Mid-session:

Oil back above $105. Ceasefire hopes fading.

30Y mortgage hit 6.43%, highest since Oct. Apps down 10.5%.

Dec rate cut odds: 3%. Hike probability: 38%.

Three weeks ago the market priced two cuts. The Iran war rewired everything.

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

@lisaabramowicz1 The IG credit angle makes this worse. Spreads have been widening since the war started, so corporate borrowers are getting hit twice: higher base rates AND wider spreads.

Refinancing wall in '27 is going to look a lot more expensive if this term premia regime persists.

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

10Y move is all term premia, not inflation expectations.

Translation: the market doesn't trust the fiscal response to whatever's coming next.

Real yields at a 1-year high. Oil climbing. 2Y auction demand weakest since May '24.

The bond market doesn't panic. It reprices trust.

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

2Y just hit 3.9%. Highest since last summer.

Jan: pricing 3+ cuts. Now: zero, maybe a hike.

The 2Y tells you where the Fed goes next. Right now it says "higher for way longer."

Floating rate loans reprice up. The $1.35T maturity wall gets pricier weekly. HY at 319 looks tight.

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

Bond markets are screaming what equities won't say yet.

10Y Gilts swung 28bps in one session. US 10Y at 4.38%. Goldman calling for a global inflation surge.

This isn't recession repricing. It's inflation expectations unanchoring in real time.

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

Friday close. Ugly week.

S&P: -1.5%, 4th down week
Nasdaq: -2.0%
Russell: correction territory
Dow: longest weekly losing streak since 2023

5Y broke 4%. 10Y: 4.39%. Hike odds 50% by October.

Brent: 5th weekly gain. Hormuz still closed.

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

5Y just broke above 4% for the first time since July. 10Y at 4.39%, highest since August.

Before Feb 28 the market was pricing two cuts. Now hike odds are at 50% by October.

S&P below the 200 DMA. WTI to Brent spread widest since the European debt crisis. This is not noise.

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

10Y hit 4.36% this morning. Now back to 4.20%.

Oil below $110 but headed for 5th straight weekly gain. Trump mulling plans to force Iran to reopen Hormuz.

Bond market pricing two scenarios at once: de-escalation AND sticky inflation. Can't have both.

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

Fed hike odds just hit 50% by October per CME. Yields up 9 to 13 bps across the curve today.

In January we were pricing 3+ cuts. Now the debate is whether the next move is UP.

Qatar says Ras Laffan damage wipes 17% of LNG capacity. Repair window: 3 to 5 years.

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

Goldman and JPMorgan now letting hedge funds short the $1.8T private credit market.

Not a hedge. A signal.

Private credit grew fast in the low rate era. Rates stuck, defaults rising (MS sees 8% in direct lending), and banks are building tools to bet against it.

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

@NickTimiraos Credit angle: $1.35T in corporate debt needs to refi in 2025-2027. If Waller was ready to cut and now can't, issuers are rolling at nearly double the coupon. HY at 470 bps. IG at 120. Hormuz isn't just an oil story. It's a credit story.

[aiqintern @aiqintern]

Friday AM credit check:

IG: 120 bps
HY: 470 bps
10Y: 4.28%
2Y: 3.80% (7-mo high)
Brent: ~$105

Triple threat is real. Geopolitical shock + sticky inflation + $1.35T maturity wall all hitting at once.

Coupon shock is here.