Open-weight models are essential to a healthy AI ecosystem. Together with others across our industry, we are outlining a path for open-weight models to strengthen American competitiveness and expand economic opportunity, while protecting national security. https://t.co/Tr0sAzAxTD
Elon's all about making kids and large families need big SUVs, and the US already demands and pays a healthy premium for these XL SUVs.
The market is there for $TSLA's taking 🔥
Chevy Tahoe - 114,202 units sold in 2025
GMC Yukon - 93,036
Ford Expedition - 85,921
Chevy Suburban - 58,683
Cadillac Escalade - 57,481 (including 8,115 IQ)
Jeep Wagoneer / Grand Wagoneer - 45,040
Lincoln Navigator - 22,185
Lexus LX - 7,464
Toyota Sequoia - 26,186
Nissan Armada - 17,465
Infiniti QX80 - 13,590
This huge 540K-unit market grew 11% YOY in 2025. That's a $43B TAM at $80K average MSRP.
Let's fucking get it Franz & Elon! 🍻
JUST IN:
Nancy Pelosi just made A BUNCH of changes to her portfolio ... here is every change that was made
Google:
- Exercised 50 call options at a $150 strike representing 5,000 shares of Google $GOOGL added
- Bought 20 $GOOGL call options with a strike of $150 that expire 1/15/27
- Moved 7,704 shares held personally to "Donor Advised Fund"
Amazon:
- Exercised 50 call options at a $150 strike representing 5,000 shares of Amazon $AMZN added
- Sold 20,000 Amazon Shares
- Bought 20 $AMZN call options with a strike of $150 that expire 1/15/27
Apple:
- Sold 45,000 Apple $AAPL Shares
- Bought 20 $AAPL call options with a strike of $100 that expire 1/15/27
- Moved 28,200 shares held personally to "Donor Advised Fund"
Nvidia:
- Exercised 50 call options at a $80 strike representing 5,000 shares of Nvidia $NVDA added
- Sold 20,000 Nvidia Shares
- Bought 20 $NVDA call options with a strike of $100 that expire 1/15/27
- Sold 5,000 shares of PayPal $PYPL stock
- Exercised 50 call options at a $20 strike representing 5,000 shares of Tempus AI $TEM added
- Versant Media $VSNT: 776 shares and cash as a result of spinoff from Comcast
- Exercised 50 call options on $VST at a $50 strike representing 5,000 shares of Vistra added
- Sold 10,000 shares of Disney $DIS stock
- Bought 25,000 shares of AllianceBernstein $AB
🚨 BREAKING: Texas Governor Greg Abbott just went FULL BEAST MODE on radical Sharia courts trying to infiltrate Texas!
“We know of at least TWO Sharia courts operating in the Dallas area… I am deploying the Texas Department of Public Safety to ROOT OUT any Sharia courts ANYWHERE in the state of Texas!”
“To be clear, the Texas Constitution DOES NOT allow Sharia courts or Sharia law… Our statutes have BANNED Sharia law… and we are going to pursue this until we PURGE any attempt to impose Sharia law in Texas!”
“You don’t know who my father is?”
Karnataka BJP leader Vijayagouda Patil’s coward thug son Samarthgouda Patil beats up toll staffer for demanding toll fee.
Still not arrested.
A few things have become crystalized for me after $TSLA's Q3 earnings call.
1. Tesla's yearly vehicle production will not exceed 3 million by the end of 2027.
2. The first 10,000 Optimus Bots will be built sometime between the end of 2027, beginning of 2028.
3. Unsupervised self-driving globally at a safety level way higher than a human will be achieved with AI5 - likely by the end of 2027.
4. Energy demand, and energy margins, will continue to go up because of AI demand.
This implies a few things:
The only way for Tesla to get to 3 million units will be by ramping Cybercab's production line. Model 3/Y/S/X/Cyber/Semi are capped at about 2 million per year right now, and squeezing additional units will give them an extra 100k-200k.
That means Cybercab line will produce about 800k cars per year by end of 2027 to close the gap.
The question becomes - will there be a regulatory environment that will allow that many vehicles to be sold per year without a steering wheel and pedal, given that US regulations currently cap this 2,500 per year?
Tesla is dependent on regulation to max out their manufacturing capacity in the coming quarters in order to massively capitalize on their technological feat of solving for unsupervised self-driving.
I find it extremely unlikely that regulations will facilitate this, especially since Tesla will have the capacity to build AT LEAST 10k-50k Cybercabs by Q4 of 2026 as they go through their S-curve ramp into 2027.
800k Cybercabs will be enough to put Uber's entire fleet out of business overnight, given that they have 1 million active drivers in the US that work less than 40 hours per week on average. Cybercab can work 24/7, which means Tesla would only need 400k at a maximum to replace Uber.
Therefore Tesla will have no choice but to sell cars with steering wheels and pedals using the Cybercab line to ensure production doesn't stall - "now that Unsupervised is solved, I feel confident in expanding production."
This means - to me - that Tesla will do whatever it takes to maximize production - regulations be dammed. There's a reason why Tesla developed Steer-by-wire IMO for Cybertruck - so it's easy to yank when regulations finally catch up.
Not only that, the Cybercab line will have the perfect form factor for a vehicle to be sold in Europe with unsupervised self-driving capability, yet it's highly unlikely Europe will abide to regulations that will allow Tesla to sell a fully self-driving vehicle in that market without a steering wheel and pedal.
On the Bot side, it's clear that Tesla's approach of wanting to solve for generalized Robotics will put them on a much more painful - and slower - path to useable Robots in factories, warehouses, homes, etc.
It's the same approach as the car with FSD v Waymo. Waymo "solved" self-driving first, but they were limited by scale because of their approach. It took Tesla 10 years to catch up to Waymo's capabilities, and it's going to take them 1 year to vastly outpace them because of their generalized driving solution using AI.
Bot is likely to be similar. Others will be first, but once Tesla catches up, they'll blow past everyone. This will not happen until 2029 at the very earliest, so we've got a ways to go.
Energy is too obvious - everyone needs energy. Batteries are great at making energy generation super efficient. Solar helps a ton. Easy peasy.