Andres Chocron, CFA

Investments | Real Estate | Finance | CMO @ Arqdia | Advisor @RealcapResearch | Pro Investor @etoro

[Henrick Johansson @compliantvc]

Elon Musk is about to become a trillionaire

If he agreed to pay just 80% of that as a wealth tax to the EU, the EU government could use its efficient operating experience to fund bicycles with solar panels attached to them for over 40 residents of the Netherlands

Elon is being selfish by not paying the wealth tax

[Andres Chocron, CFA @ajchocron]

Friday: the semiconductor ETF has its worst day in six years, down 10%.

Monday: $MU rips 10% higher. The dip-buyers declare victory. 📉📈

Tuesday: the rally stalls. Chips give back 1%, tech drags the Nasdaq down almost 1%, and suddenly nobody's sure what they own anymore.

Here's what actually happened. May payrolls came in at 172,000 — double consensus. Treasury yields spiked. The CME FedWatch tool put the odds of a HIKE this year at 72%. And the most crowded trade on Earth — AI semiconductors — got repriced in 48 hours.

Three sessions. Three completely different narratives. Same underlying companies.

The lesson isn't "buy the dip" or "sell the rip." It's that when positioning is this concentrated, price action stops telling you about fundamentals and starts telling you about leverage.

I've watched this movie before: 2000, 2021. Crowded trades don't unwind politely. They whipsaw until the marginal leveraged holder is gone — and only then does fundamental analysis matter again.

If a 10% single-day drawdown in the most important sector in the market changed your thesis, you never had a thesis. You had a position.

Which one do you have? Be honest.

#investors #economics #StockMarket

[Andres Chocron, CFA @ajchocron]

SpaceX S-1 Filed: Inside the IPO Prospectus the Market Waited 24 Years For

SpaceX just filed its Form S-1. We break down the dual-class structure, the $18.7B revenue base, the $2.6B loss, Starlink's 49.8% growth, the 22-bank syndicate, and the risks the company put on the record.

Read all about the SpaceX S-1 filing here: https://t.co/F6C2bNoNVY

#S1 #filing #SEC #SpaceX

[Filingtrack @filingtrack]

A CEO just walked out the door. Did you know before the headlines?

This week alone: NextEra's FPL CEO stepped down. HF Sinclair's CEO departed. Six Flags lost its CFO AND Chief Legal Officer — all disclosed via Form 8-K before a single journalist published a word.

Form 8-K is the SEC's material event alarm. Companies must file within 4 business days of any major development: exec departures, M&A, bankruptcy, buyback announcements, board changes.

Investors who monitor 8-Ks directly act on information. Everyone else reacts to news.

Get 8-K alerts → https://t.co/RcnDglRSmy

#SECFilings #Investing

[Brivael Le Pogam @brivael]

Hello Julia, sans aucune ironie, c'est top que tu prennes le temps de te renseigner. Mais le problème quand on lit Marx aujourd'hui, c'est qu'on prend pour acquis sa prémisse de départ, alors qu'elle a été démontée scientifiquement il y a plus de 150 ans.

Toute la pensée de Marx repose sur la théorie de la valeur-travail. L'idée que la valeur d'un bien vient de la quantité de travail nécessaire pour le produire. Si tu acceptes cette prémisse, alors oui, tout son raisonnement tient. Le capitaliste "vole" la plus-value du travailleur, l'exploitation est mathématique, la révolution est inévitable.

Sauf qu'en 1871, trois économistes (Menger en Autriche, Jevons en Angleterre, Walras en Suisse) découvrent indépendamment la même chose : la valeur n'est pas objective, elle est subjective et marginale.

Un verre d'eau dans le désert vaut une fortune. Le même verre à côté d'une rivière ne vaut rien. Le travail incorporé est identique. Donc le travail ne détermine pas la valeur. C'est le consommateur qui valorise un bien selon son utilité marginale dans un contexte donné.

Exemple concret : tu peux passer 1000 heures à tricoter un pull moche que personne ne veut. Selon Marx, ce pull a énormément de valeur (beaucoup de travail incorporé). Selon la réalité, il ne vaut rien. Parce que personne n'en veut.

À l'inverse, Bernard Arnault crée des milliards de valeur non pas parce qu'il "exploite" mais parce qu'il a su anticiper et organiser des désirs humains à grande échelle. La valeur est créée par la coordination, pas extraite par le vol.

Cette découverte (la révolution marginaliste) a invalidé tout l'édifice marxiste. Pas pour des raisons idéologiques, pour des raisons scientifiques. C'est pour ça que plus aucun département d'économie sérieux au monde n'enseigne Marx comme un cadre d'analyse valide. On l'enseigne en histoire de la pensée.

Maintenant, le truc important. Si ton intention en lisant Marx c'est d'aider les pauvres (c'est une intention noble), alors tu vas être surprise par ce qui suit.

Regarde les chiffres de la Banque mondiale. En 1820, 90% de l'humanité vivait dans l'extrême pauvreté. Aujourd'hui, moins de 9%. Cette chute historique ne s'est PAS produite dans les pays qui ont appliqué Marx. Elle s'est produite dans les pays qui ont libéralisé leur économie.

Chine post-1978, Vietnam post-1986, Inde post-1991, Pologne post-1989. À chaque fois qu'un pays libéralise, des centaines de millions de gens sortent de la pauvreté en une génération. À chaque fois qu'un pays applique Marx (URSS, Cambodge, Corée du Nord, Venezuela), c'est la famine et les goulags.

Ce n'est pas une opinion, c'est l'expérience la plus massive jamais menée en sciences sociales. Plusieurs milliards de cobayes humains, sur un siècle.

Donc paradoxalement, si tu aimes vraiment les pauvres, la position la plus cohérente n'est pas d'être marxiste. C'est d'être pour la liberté économique. Parce que c'est empiriquement la seule chose qui a jamais sorti massivement les gens de la misère.

Pour creuser, je te recommande trois lectures qui vont changer ta vision :

"La Loi" de Frédéric Bastiat (court, lumineux, gratuit en ligne)
"La Route de la Servitude" de Hayek
"Économie en une leçon" de Henry Hazlitt
Bonne lecture, et vraiment chapeau de chercher à comprendre plutôt que de rester dans tes certitudes. C'est rare.

[Andres Chocron, CFA @ajchocron]

@ImJulianAssange Retarded statement of the week 🤡

[Andres Chocron, CFA @ajchocron]

@sanchezcastejon 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

[Isabel Díaz Ayuso @IdiazAyuso]

El Fiscal General del Estado, condenado por el Supremo, fue puesto políticamente por el presidente del Gobierno para delinquir.

Ahora, el presidente del Constitucional, puesto ahí a dedo como su hijo en Telefonica, podría indultarle. Puesto ahí para taparlo todo.

A la vez, el 2 de Sánchez en el partido y en el Gobierno, pinta que acabará en prisión.

Mientras el presidente se esconde en la dictadura china con su mujer, que será juzgada por 4 delitos mientras se burla de la Justicia y ni da la cara ni presenta su pasaporte requerido.

España está gobernada por una banda mafiosa, lo pagaremos mucho.

[Andres Chocron, CFA @ajchocron]

HALO: The Case for Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence https://t.co/OVqhDSp4ac

[Andres Chocron, CFA @ajchocron]

Middle East tensions = stronger CHF? Not if the SNB steps in — here’s what it means for you.”

��� SNB ready to intervene if CHF rises “rapid & excessive”
• Protects Swiss real-estate and portfolio values
• Inflation forecast unchanged at 0.5% for 2026 • Low rates + FX defence = ideal environment for expats
• Action already signalled after recent 2.5% trade-weighted rise

[Andres Chocron, CFA @ajchocron]

SNB just confirmed: mortgage rates stay ultra-low in 2026 — here’s your window 🚀

• Swiss National Bank policy rate held at 0% through 2026
• 10-year fixed mortgages holding ~0.7–1.2%
• SARON-linked variable mortgages remain near zero
• Blended structures (3/5/10-year tranches) preserve flexibility under low volatility
• UBS expects no rate hikes despite geopolitical pressure

Rate stability compresses financing risk and shifts focus to asset selection and structure. Low-cost leverage remains available; mispricing risk sits on the asset side, not funding.

#SNB #MortgageRatesSwitzerland #HipotecasSuiza #ExpatFinance #SwissBanking #RealCapDaily

[Andres Chocron, CFA @ajchocron]

Years from now, it will be obvious why, in this specific moment in human history, as we faced high-powered technologies and political ideologies aimed at paving the way for their dominance over humans, what emerged—what had to emerge—was an intense, global debate about, of all things, Zionism. Israel is no longer an outlier in the pantheon of free societies and people; it’s a blueprint for human defense and flourishing in the coming century.

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

Strong contender for essay of the year: https://t.co/Lc7rMxohoK

[Andres Chocron, CFA @ajchocron]

@Citrini7 That’s just obvious

[Andres Chocron, CFA @ajchocron]

🚨 A $1 billion Beverly Hills property sold for $100,000.
Not a typo.

The 157-acre plot was once marketed as America’s most expensive listing.
- Panoramic views.
- Beverly Hills address.
- Sightlines stretching all the way to Malibu.

🥇 The kind of land where nearby properties sell for nine figures.

Then reality hit.
Foreclosure.
Auction.
❤️‍🩹 Final price: $100,000.

A billion-dollar dream reduced to a distressed sale.

And someone was ready to buy.

That’s the part most people miss about real estate.
👀 The biggest opportunities often appear when the story looks like a disaster.

Markets rise.
Markets fall.
Assets change hands.

Meanwhile, just down the coast, Malibu mansions are still selling for $100M+.
Real estate is never a straight line.
It’s a cycle.

And the people who win usually understand two things:
1️⃣ Distress creates opportunity
2️⃣ Timing beats optimism

Every investor eventually sees both sides of the market.

The question is whether they’re prepared when the cycle turns.

➡️ What’s the craziest real estate deal you’ve ever seen?

#RealEstate #RealEstateInvesting #PropTech

Image created by AI based on the text. They are getting better and better right?

[Andres Chocron, CFA @ajchocron]

From the profile: "Critically, Aschenbrenner chose public markets over venture capital. In interviews, he has noted that the largest beneficiaries of AGI infrastructure buildout are publicly traded companies with existing scale — not startups. Public markets also offer liquidity and the ability to use options for leveraged expression of conviction, which the fund uses extensively through calls and puts."

[Filingtrack @filingtrack]

🚀 From OpenAI to Wall Street: How Leopold Aschenbrenner Built a $5.5B AI Hedge Fund in 18 Months 🚀
Deep dive into Situational Awareness LP's Q4 2025 portfolio. The AI-focused hedge fund founded by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner pivots from chips to power infrastructure, with heavy Bitcoin miner exposure as a play on AI energy demand.

BTW, we just added Situational Awareness LP 13f tracking

Read full profile: https://t.co/8aO07wg13Z

#SEC #HedgeFund #Finance

[Andres Chocron, CFA @ajchocron]

If it works, it will flow and oil will not reach $100, as predicted by many.

It will be a volatile week.

[Andres Chocron, CFA @ajchocron]

@Microinteracti1 No. Spain is sadly very weak. That’s a fact.
And its government is morally bankrupt and the most incompetent and corrupt in recent history.
Sad to see. But true.