@Clement_Ang17 Absolutely. I always check VIX first. Is this a sector rotation, consolidation, leaders taking breather OR a bearish signal. If a stock is respecting its major supports then who cares what it’s doing on a daily basis. Not every action requires a reaction 😂
@saxena_puru Nobody has a crystal ball BUT in an uptrend market it’s unlikely that major indices (like, SPY) will wipe out almost all the gains in the last two months, and not stop/rebound from major SMAs (like, 50, 100 etc.). We don’t even know if market will be below for 21sma for long.
@alphacharts365 Fear sells faster than optimism. Many on X are drawing parallels to the 1999 bubble. If the leading stocks bounce off from 21 and 50 sma this week, don’t be surprised if Friday sell off is quickly rebranded as a textbook buying opportunity. There is 0 accountability on X 😂😂
@RealSimpleAriel@WillyD135 Ariel, to gauge if a chart is extended, do you look into ATR multiples or ATR multiples from 50sma or RSI. I look into all 3, and sometimes experiencing analysis paralysis (as Stan says) 😂 What do you think is the better approach?
@n_bancroft2 Very true, Nathan. I think the urge to do something all the time even when market, theme and the leaders are in uptrend can severely damage one’s portfolio. For me, it’s $AXTI, it didn’t break even 50 sma from Oct’25 ($4) to date ($123). Who cares, it’s extended or not 😂
@FranVezz@jmoneystonks Gained 100% in less than 3 weeks (April 9th-April 29th) with multiple gaps can be a reason for the messed up price action. That being said, last earnings seems very good. If the market will be conducive for these stocks then can go back to ATH quickly (ADR > 8%).
@Peoplewish Couldn’t agree more. It’s not only small accounts but even large accounts and many funds who are into leveraged stocks or etfs. When there is a trend leveraged or inverse leveraged stocks/etfs can be very rewarding. Imo, risks can be well managed with leveraged vs options.
@RealSimpleAriel I've noticed that you are trying to short it from early 60s and had a success during market correction but even then, it bounced back fast. For a stock like this, I'll let it fall by its own weight (negative catalyst) and then short.
@RealSimpleAriel (d) Revenue growth accelerated sharply...Technicals (you are an expert) (a) Momentum continuation not topping behavior (b) high short interest (c) volume expansion (d) didn't break even 50sma during market cyclical correction this year....
@mmonis Most probably not, because you are comparing one stock (and that’s a crappy one) to whole stock market. Is the stock market extended? Absolutely…If it drops 2-3% then the extension will be reduced and it can go much higher.
@PurpleDrink_LLC Fear sells faster 😂😂😂 Many stocks in these hot themes are showing excellent numbers and getting rewarded. It will take a breather and gonna be a nice buying opportunity. What can be a bigger proof of high RS that even in this yr correction, true leaders didn’t budge?
@RealSimpleAriel Your analogy is 🎯 Tricky part is in the last one year, many times these stocks got extended. That’s why right entry, as close as 1 month back, gave a very good cushion (eg., 100% rally in 4 weeks for $SNDK). Till it won’t break major supports, all is well 😂
@NickDrendel For short term, this is setting up for a nice short opportunity and for long term holders, a nice opportunity (once it dips and forms a base) to add more 😀 With leaders like these, both sides will be happy. There are not many stocks in the market which checks most of the boxes.
@NickDrendel Market cap to GDP ratio was ~55% in 1987 and today it's 230% and some people think that 30% crash will happen just like that? Suuure....Even in current year cyclical correction to $SPY, many stocks from the leading themes couldn't even drop below 50sma.
@JSpitTrades There seems many from small cap and mini cap $VECO $WATT $OPTX $ELVA $SKYT $UCTT $ALTO $RFIL $VSH $ADTN $ATEX $LWLG $INTT etc. it’s not that easy to get positioned in these names as there is always a risk of dilution.
@n_bancroft2 Thanks to your simple approach. I got positioned in most of these quality stocks during the recent dips and having a cushion now makes life so peaceful. This is my playground. Till a stock in my portfolio is not breaking any major support, I’m not doing anything.
@ohiain Eye opener for me was @RealSimpleAriel Oct’25 return, his hit rate was 18% (if I’m not wrong). Profit was ~$4M despite of 18% hit rate. His losses were in 4 figs and 5 figs, and gains in high 6 figs. Seeing that, I made my risk management rule non-negotiable 😀