ajthoe

[Mark Zandi @Markzandi]

This coming Friday’s release of the jobs report for August by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be critical in gauging the threat of recession. I expect payroll jobs to increase by 50k in the month and the unemployment rate to notch higher to 4.3%. There will also be revisions to the June and July jobs numbers and the annual benchmark revision for March 2025, which the #BLS will preview. I anticipate downward revisions, as has generally been the case in recent months and consistent with a weakening economy. With the revisions, it is conceivable that the recently paltry job gains turn into losses. If so, there will be a legitimate debate over whether the economy is already in a recession. If not, depending on how strong the report is, given what happened at the BLS after last month’s #jobsreport, it is reasonable to expect there will be a debate over whether we should believe any of the numbers.

[Jeremy Ney @jeremybney]

The Department of Labor just released county-level data on childcare costs for the FIRST TIME EVER

Turns out millions of Americans are spending painfully high amounts on childcare

[NWS Duluth @NWSduluth]

In case you missed it, 2022-2023 has been awarded the Golden Shovel Award for Seasonal Snowfall. As of 7AM this morning, April 20, we are at 137.1". This is (so far) 1.7" over the previous record. We have until June 30 until the count resets. #mnwx #wiwx #snowfall

[Brian Bakst @Stowydad]

Quarterly revenue report in. #mnleg https://t.co/r3YAo0fTzA

[Peter Callaghan @CallaghanPeter]

Remember that Minnesota revenue forecast in Feb that was described as flat but was actually up $1.5 billion from November. Well, it was too pessimistic based on Feb-Mar collections (up $176m) and new economic outlook.
https://t.co/OErJgxZF9Q

[Management & Budget @MMBCommunicates]

February 2023 Budget and Economic Forecast documents now available. https://t.co/AedIM6F9Gc

[Management & Budget @MMBCommunicates]

MN budget and economic outlook stable with $17.5 billion balance projected for next biennium, mostly leftover from current biennium. Individual income and corporate franchise tax forecast up, offset by inflation. Revenues forecast to exceed spending through FY2027.

[Brian Bakst @Stowydad]

JUST IN: @MMBCommunicates pegs FY2024-25 surplus at about $17.5 billion.

Essentially unchanged from early Dec., but it means revenue kept growing because this forecast figures inflation into spending calculations for the first time in decades. #mnleg

https://t.co/46LpW5SOJF

[Brian Bakst @Stowydad]

Helpful chart from @MMBCommunicates to visualize the $17.6B surplus and how it grew from the last checkup.

[Management & Budget @MMBCommunicates]

November 2022 Budget and Economic Forecast documents now available. https://t.co/mp6jv3c6dD

[Management & Budget @MMBCommunicates]

Breaking: Strong collections and lower-than-projected spending add to the FY22-23 surplus. Economic headwinds lower expected growth but large leftover surplus and healthy net revenues in FY24-25 create estimated $17.6B available for budget. https://t.co/4bmq88QJq2

[Jason Furman @jasonfurman]

How does the economy today compare to what CBO expected pre-pandemic and pre-massive policy response to the pandemic?

Real GDP is slightly lower than was expected.

[Management & Budget @MMBCommunicates]

Minnesota’s net general fund receipts for Q1 of FY2023 are estimated at $7 billion, $289 million (4.3%) more than forecast. Net receipts exceeded projections for all major tax types. https://t.co/Xyc7u4YPsO

[Brian Bakst @Stowydad]

The report anticipates a recession that begins in the 4th quarter (this one we're now in) of 2022.

[ajthoe @ajthoe]

@CallaghanPeter I skied to work at the Centennial Building on this day in 2019! (3 mi!)

[Peter Callaghan @CallaghanPeter]

MN Corporate profits are estimated to be higher than in December forecast. All tax types are up since then.

[Brian Bakst @Stowydad]

FORECAST thread here:

The state's three major tax categories are all up over the prior forecast

Income (people making more)
Sales (people spending more/items cost more)
Corporate (businesses doing well)

[Brian Bakst @Stowydad]

. @MMBCommissioner @JimSchowalter says COVID-19 isn't over but "our economy is learning how to adapt.”

He says the $7.75B projected surplus is "out of the ordinary even in these extraordinary times.” #Mnleg

[ajthoe @ajthoe]

Good niche humor

[David H. Montgomery @dhmontgomery]

Why I have a headache, in one image of open tabs: