RBI may hike repo rate by 25 bps.
MPC meets 5-7 October.
Decision on 7 October.
Repo is 5.25%.
A 25 bps hike would take it to 5.50%.
First rise since February 2023.
This is a poll, not a vote.
Reuters: 35 of 61 economists expect 25 bps.
Business Standard: 8 of 10.
A few still expect a hold.
August inflation was 4.82%, above the 4% target for a third month.
Food and oil are the push.
Another hike in December is possible, not promised.
Sector impact:
Banks - margins may widen
NBFCs - borrowing gets costlier
Housing - EMIs get costlier
Autos - demand may cool
Realty - sales face pressure
FMCG - volumes stay soft
IT - little rate impact
Pharma - defensive, little change
Metals - capex may slow
Infra - project costs up
Oil and gas - input stress stays
Gold - haven bid can hold
Equities - near-term volatility
Bonds - yields may firm
Rupee - mild support only
A hike does not fix crude.
It does not reopen Hormuz.
It only raises the cost of money while oil is already high.
What’s your thoughts?