akhsheiy

Co-founder @SiloMarkets. Building better incentives for long-term investors. Thinking about products, markets, and why people do what they do with money.

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

Most investors overcomplicate things, here's how to keep it simple AND powerful:

S&P 500? $VOO
Tech? $VGT
Growth? $SCHG
Dividends? $SCHD
Real estate? $IYRI
High yield broad? $GPIX
High yield tech? $GPIQ, $QQQI, $JEPQ

Pick a few, be consistent, let your wealth build itself.

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

Every brokerage app on the market shows you your portfolio value first.

Not your income, your dividends, or what your money actually earned you this month. Just one big number that moves up and down every second.

That design choice trains you to think of investing as a score. And scores make people do dumb things, like sell when the number drops 3% on a Tuesday.

If your brokerage showed you "your portfolio paid you $47.82 today" instead of a red arrow, you'd probably make better decisions.

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

We walked away from a bond product when yields were screaming buy.

My co-founder and I had spent months on it. The macro setup looked strong and the math worked on paper.

But neither of us actually wanted to build the thing. We were following the market, not a problem we cared about.

I keep thinking about that now, watching the Treasury buy back its own bonds to keep 30-year yields from passing 5.3%.

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

The Treasury is doubling long-end bond buybacks and may use its nearly $1 trillion cash balance to help finance them as 30-year yields push above 5%.

This is worth paying attention to because of what it signals about the math.

When 30-year yields touched roughly 5.3%, it highlighted how expensive long-term financing has become for a government carrying more than $40 trillion in debt. Net interest costs are already above $1 trillion a year, and the bigger buybacks look like an attempt to support liquidity and ease pressure at the long end without waiting for the Fed.

The risk is that if the government ultimately leans more on short-term bills while buying back longer-dated bonds, it shortens the maturity profile of the debt. That can help if rates fall, but if rates stay elevated, the benefit fades and refinancing risk rises.

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

The S&P 500 is up around 12% this year.

Meanwhile, spreads on CCC-rated junk bonds have widened from roughly 8.9% in January to over 10.3% today.

That's a pretty big divergence.

And interestingly, this isn't broad credit stress. Higher-quality junk spreads are still pretty tight. The market is specifically getting more nervous about the weakest borrowers.

That doesn't mean stocks are about to crash.

But when the riskiest part of the credit market starts pricing in more stress while equities sit near all-time highs... I think it's worth paying attention.

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

@InvestVerified looks like a busy macro day. watching the Warsh speech closely

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

@DiligentPlane happens every quarter. Nvidia dropped 60% in 2022 and everyone called the GPU story over... look at it now.

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

@Pickle_cRypto low 70s to mid 60s bid range makes sense to me too. 65k holding is the key level to watch

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

@great_martis At Silo we're watching the same bond flows and honestly, it's hard to build stable yield products when the underlying market is this fragile.

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

@0xFinish Insiders sell for a lot of reasons. Could just be diversification or planned 10b5-1 sales lined up months ago.

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

@TomolaGroup Solid list. I'd probably swap MTN for GTCO but hard to argue with the logic here.

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

@ChifoiCristian Bonds set up the same way right before that massive TLT rally. I think we're watching the same movie again.

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

@litcapital Oreo mashed potatoes is genuinely unhinged lol

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

When yields spike and currency falls together, the "safe haven" story breaks down. US 10Y went from ~4% to 4.5%+ while DXY dropped, same pattern as UK 2022.
At Silo, I think about this a lot - if bond volatility keeps rising, the 60/40 assumption gets messier for everyday investors.

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

@MustStopMurad holding is basically what we're building Silo around. long-term conviction beats short-term noise, and we believe the infrastructure should reflect that.

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

@blknoiz06 lol exactly, easiest strategy and somehow still hard for people to follow

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

@zerohedge When smart money flips bullish on bonds, I think it's worth asking what they're seeing that retail isn't.
At Silo, we watch duration shifts closely.
If yields are headed lower, longer-duration bonds could benefit quite a bit.

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

Most people assume elite investors are running some insanely complex system.

Then you hear Lloyd Blankfein, former CEO of Goldman Sachs, describe his portfolio:

98% equities.
90% in individual stocks.
Trades every day from an iPad.

Sometimes the gap between great and average isn’t complexity.

https://t.co/fOQNEtO940

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

@oldschoolinvest 32 years of holding through the slow part is the real story here. most people would've sold at 5x and called it a win.

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

@jasonzweigwsj Really enjoyed this one. The take on how investors confuse activity with progress is something I think about a lot when building for retail users. The urge to "do something" is one of the hardest behavioral patterns to design around.

[akhsheiy @akhsheiy]

@TheMisterTurtle the expected value math still doesn't work even if the system is rigged lol