Yakpenpro

[Yakpenpro @aklttpm]

Far from the greatest, but definitely someone’s favorite.

[Yakpenpro @aklttpm]

@BluesBallersHQ ส่วนตัวผมพึ่งลงทุนมาได้ปีกว่าๆเองครับ ไม่กล้าสอนใครจริงๆครับ
แต่ของคนนี้ที่เอามาแชร์คือรู้สึกว่าตรงกับของตัวเองหลายๆอย่างครับ

[Yakpenpro @aklttpm]

ใครเพิ่งเริ่มลงทุน ลองอ่านอันนี้ดูครับ ผมว่าเป็นจุดที่มือใหม่พลาดกันบ่อย รวมถึงตัวผมเมื่อก่อนด้วย

[RuleZero Investor @RuleZeroInv]

Rule #4: Learn continuously, change carefully.

Most beginners think learning means changing. It doesn't. The best investors never stop learning, but they don't constantly restart.

Learning should challenge your assumptions, strengthen your thesis, and help you discover better opportunities. But that doesn't mean every new idea deserves a place in your portfolio.

I didn't realize this at first. I learned it the hard way. Early on, every time I found what looked like a better strategy, I switched to it. Each change felt like progress. It wasn't. The ideas themselves weren't the problem. I just never gave any of them enough time to prove it.

That's the hidden cost of switching so often. It's not just the buying and selling. It's the opportunity you give up by abandoning good businesses too early, the time your process never gets to prove itself, and the conviction you lose every time you start over.

Keep learning. Read more. Challenge your own ideas. Just don't confuse learning with constantly rebuilding your portfolio.

Learning should strengthen your thesis. Being selective is what turns learning into conviction.

The goal isn’t to change less. It’s to change only when it matters.

[Fabrizio Romano @FabrizioRomano]

🚨🇭🇺 Dominik Szoboszlai has agreed to sign new FIVE year deal at Liverpool, valid until June 2031!

Verbal agreement in place with final details being sorted ahead of signature and official statement.

Szoboszlai stays, fully committed to #LFC new project under Andoni Iraola 🔴🔐

[Yakpenpro @aklttpm]

TSMC ทุบงบกลางปี! AI ยังแรง
• กำไรพุ่ง 77%
• ทุบแผนลงทุน 2026 จาก 52-56 → 60-64 พันล้านดอลลาร์
• ปรับ guidance เป็น 40%
ความหมาย: ลูกค้า AI สั่งชิป 2nm-3nm เพิ่มหนัก บริษัทเลยเร่งลงทุนใหญ่
สรุป: AI Infrastructure ยังเร่งเครื่อง แต่ยังไม่ใช่ชัยชนะที่แท้จริง
(สรุปจาก grok)

[RuleZero Investor @RuleZeroInv]

$TSM (TSMC) reported earnings today. Profit up 77%. That is not the news.

The news is that the company broke its own budget in the middle of the year.

TSMC set its 2026 capex plan in January at 52 to 56 billion dollars. In April it said it would spend toward the top of that range. Today, in July, it threw the range out and went to 60 to 64 billion. Last year it spent 40.9 billion.

Annual budgets at a company this disciplined do not break for no reason. They break when what a company learns in three months is too big to wait nine more.

Two other things moved the same way. TSMC lifted its full year growth outlook from above 30 percent to slightly above 40%. And it committed another 100 billion dollars to Arizona, taking its total planned investment in the United States to 265 billion.

Leading edge capacity takes years to build. So chip designers have to tell TSMC what they are building and how much capacity they will need long before they need it, because that is the only way the capacity exists when they finally want it. TSMC is not forecasting from the outside. It is reading the requests.

So the best conclusion available today is this. The infrastructure buildout behind AI is still accelerating. Not holding steady. Accelerating, at the level where capacity gets committed years ahead of use.

Now the part that keeps this from being a victory lap.

While supply is short, real demand and defensive over ordering are hard to tell apart. A customer who needs the chips asks for capacity. A customer who is afraid of losing their allocation asks for capacity too.

TSMC sees more than the request. It sees the roadmap behind it. But the roadmap comes from the same customer, and when capacity is scarce, asking for too little costs far more than asking for too much. Nobody has to be dishonest for every plan to come in a little heavy.

This is not hypothetical. The shortage that began in 2021 was followed by over ordering across the chain. When end demand weakened and customers started working down inventory, TSMC’s 2023 revenue fell 8.7% and its net income fell 21.1%.

The test comes as the new capacity comes online and the scarcity eases. TSMC is spending 60 to 64 billion dollars to bring that day closer. The depreciation starts on the same schedule.

So the evidence says the buildout is accelerating. It does not say the buildout will be vindicated. Today answers the first question. The second one cannot be answered until the shortage ends.

[Yakpenpro @aklttpm]

A good price is the price that can lets you be wrong.
An expensive price is the price you betting the company will outperform expectations that are already priced in.

[RuleZero Investor @RuleZeroInv]

RuleZero Playbook — Part 3

What price makes the investment worth the risk?

By this point you've done the hard research. You found an industry with a real tailwind and a company with a real moat. And this is exactly where most mistakes happen, because everything looks so good that price becomes an afterthought. It isn't a detail. The company is the business. The investment is the business at the price you paid. You can get the first part completely right and still spend years losing money because you got the second part wrong.

Every price already contains a forecast.

When a stock trades at a premium, years of growth that haven't happened yet are already in the price. Buy at that level and you're no longer betting the company will do well. You're betting it will beat expectations that are already paid for.

So I don't ask what the company is worth. Models that spit out a precise target give you confidence, not accuracy. I flip the question instead: what does the current price assume? What growth, what margins, what durability does this valuation need to make sense? If those assumptions only hold in the best-case scenario, I'm not investing. I'm prepaying for a future that hasn't arrived.

The price I want is one that leaves room for me to be wrong. Not because I plan to be, but because I know some of my assumptions will be. A thesis that survives a few disappointing years is worth far more than one that needs everything to go right.

And sometimes no price on offer clears that bar. That's fine. Missing a great company at a bad price costs you nothing.

The market will always give you another price.

[Yakpenpro @aklttpm]

@RuleZeroInv Is that mean we can’t invest in a good company at any price?

[RuleZero Investor @RuleZeroInv]

RuleZero Playbook — Part 3

What price makes the investment worth the risk?

By this point you've done the hard research. You found an industry with a real tailwind and a company with a real moat. And this is exactly where most mistakes happen, because everything looks so good that price becomes an afterthought. It isn't a detail. The company is the business. The investment is the business at the price you paid. You can get the first part completely right and still spend years losing money because you got the second part wrong.

Every price already contains a forecast.

When a stock trades at a premium, years of growth that haven't happened yet are already in the price. Buy at that level and you're no longer betting the company will do well. You're betting it will beat expectations that are already paid for.

So I don't ask what the company is worth. Models that spit out a precise target give you confidence, not accuracy. I flip the question instead: what does the current price assume? What growth, what margins, what durability does this valuation need to make sense? If those assumptions only hold in the best-case scenario, I'm not investing. I'm prepaying for a future that hasn't arrived.

The price I want is one that leaves room for me to be wrong. Not because I plan to be, but because I know some of my assumptions will be. A thesis that survives a few disappointing years is worth far more than one that needs everything to go right.

And sometimes no price on offer clears that bar. That's fine. Missing a great company at a bad price costs you nothing.

The market will always give you another price.

[Hyper Shark! @HyperSharkk]

บริษัทที่ครองตลาด DRAM มากที่สุดอับดับ 2 ของโลก อย่าง $SKHY ตอนนี้ IPO เข้าตลาดหุ้นเมกาแล้วนะ!!

สำหรับใครที่จะเข้าซื้อ ผมเคยเตือนตอน $SPCX ไปแล้ว ว่ารอให้ฝุ่นมันหายตลบก่อน ค่อยเข้า ไม่งั้นจะต้องทนแรงเหวี่ยงให้ได้ มันขึ้นลงแรงแน่นอน

อย่า FOMO เด็ดขาด!!

[RuleZero Investor @RuleZeroInv]

SK Hynix just became the cleanest public bet on the memory content story inside $NVDA ’s roadmap.

HBM content per rack goes from ~$382K on Rubin to ~$1.5M on Rubin Ultra. That’s memory scaling faster than the compute around it.

Consensus is still modeling this as a cyclical memory name. It’s a structural content-growth name.

[Yakpenpro @aklttpm]

ก่อนเลือกหุ้น ลองเลือกจากอุตสาหกรรมที่จะโตแรงใน 10 ปีดูครับ

[RuleZero Investor @RuleZeroInv]

RuleZero Playbook — Part 1

Which industries will define the next decade?

Most investors start by looking for stocks. They screen for companies with strong financials, compare valuations, and try to figure out which business will outperform over the next few years. I think that’s starting one step too late.

Before I spend time researching a company, I want to understand the industry it operates in. Every business competes within an environment it doesn’t control. When an industry is growing, great companies have more room to expand. When an industry is shrinking, even great companies have to work much harder just to maintain growth.

Companies don’t grow in isolation. They grow within industries.

Investing is ultimately a bet on the future. When you buy a stock, you’re also making an assumption about how the world will change over the next decade. If that assumption is wrong, choosing the best company inside the wrong industry rarely leads to exceptional long-term returns. But if you identify the right long-term tailwinds, your odds of finding extraordinary businesses improve dramatically.

That’s why I don’t start by asking which company will win. I start by asking which industries are most likely to create the biggest opportunities over the next decade. Only after I have that answer do I begin looking for the companies that deserve my capital.

The industry determines the opportunity. The company determines who captures it.

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

China launches a rocket to space and successfully lands it back on Earth for the first time.

The global space race is about to accelerate.

$SPCX, $RKLB, $ASTS, $PL, $RDW, $VOYG, $FLY, $LUNR, $BKSY

[RuleZero Investor @RuleZeroInv]

Everyone’s posting this like the future just landed. Maybe it did. But “the future is here” and “you can invest in it” are almost never the same day.

A robot finishing a surgery proves the tech works. It doesn’t prove anyone has built a business around it, and that part usually takes years.

Even then, the profit is a separate question. The robot maker, the chips inside it, the software that runs it? The headline won’t tell you who keeps the money. That’s yours to work out.

A breakthrough you can watch and a breakthrough you can own aren’t the same thing. Most of investing is knowing which one you’re looking at.

[Yakpenpro @aklttpm]

@RuleZeroInv Well said. Investing is really about buying before the consensus, but after the odds have started shifting in your favor.

[RuleZero Investor @RuleZeroInv]

RuleZero Framework was about the mindset. Six rules that build the investor.

But knowing how to think isn’t the same as knowing what to do.

RuleZero Playbook is the process of finding, buying, and holding great businesses.

Six parts. Six questions:

1.Which industries will define the next decade.
2.Which company inside that industry deserves my money.
3.What price makes the investment worth the risk.
4.What I need to know before I click buy.
https://t.co/TpS1XNWeO8 to hold, and how to know the thesis still works.
6.When it’s time to sell.

Framework built the investor. Playbook is how that investor actually works.

[Yakpenpro @aklttpm]

มุมมองเรื่องการเข้าร่วมดัชนีของหุ้นครับ
$SPCX มองราคาเข้าที่เท่าไหร่กันบ้างครับ

[RuleZero Investor @RuleZeroInv]

A month after becoming a public company, $SPCX (SpaceX) reached another major milestone.

Today, SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100.

Many investors may see this as just another step for a large company. But there is something more interesting happening beneath the surface.

When a company grows large enough, it doesn’t just attract investors who want to buy its stock. It can become a company that the investment system is built to own.

Passive funds don’t buy SpaceX because they believe in Elon Musk, or because they are making a prediction about its future.

They buy it because tracking the index requires them to.

Most companies spend years searching for capital. But the greatest companies eventually become destinations where capital naturally flows.

That is the difference between a good company and a truly dominant one.

SpaceX joining the Nasdaq-100 is not just about entering an index. It is another sign that the company is moving into a different stage.

From a company investors choose to buy,
to a company the investment system is built to own.

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

LOL, for real? That price target would basically imply close to an $11T market cap.

Raymond James Initiates Coverage on $SPCX with Strong Buy Rating, PT $800

Analyst comments: "We initiate coverage of SpaceX with a Strong Buy rating and an $800 price target, as we see the company as one of the defining industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century. Industrialized access to orbit and AI are driving the most significant infrastructure convergence since the advent of the Internet. By lowering the cost of transporting mass to orbit, SpaceX is enabling a new infrastructure layer spanning transportation, communications, compute, manufacturing, and energy. Just as railroads, electric grids, and the Internet reshaped prior economic eras, we believe SpaceX is building the foundational platform for the next generation of industrial capacity."

Analyst: Brian Gesuale

[RuleZero Investor @RuleZeroInv]

A month after becoming a public company, $SPCX (SpaceX) reached another major milestone.

Today, SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100.

Many investors may see this as just another step for a large company. But there is something more interesting happening beneath the surface.

When a company grows large enough, it doesn’t just attract investors who want to buy its stock. It can become a company that the investment system is built to own.

Passive funds don’t buy SpaceX because they believe in Elon Musk, or because they are making a prediction about its future.

They buy it because tracking the index requires them to.

Most companies spend years searching for capital. But the greatest companies eventually become destinations where capital naturally flows.

That is the difference between a good company and a truly dominant one.

SpaceX joining the Nasdaq-100 is not just about entering an index. It is another sign that the company is moving into a different stage.

From a company investors choose to buy,
to a company the investment system is built to own.

[Yakpenpro @aklttpm]

ใครที่พึ่งเริ่มหรือเป็นสายลงทุนระยะยาวลองอ่านดูครับ

[RuleZero Investor @RuleZeroInv]

RuleZero was never six rules. It was one sequence.

Rule #0: builds your foundation, so a bad month never forces your hand.

Rule #1: builds your reason for holding, so a headline can’t do what your own thesis hasn’t done.

Rule #2: builds your process, so you stop re-deciding the same trade every time the market moves.

Rule #3: builds your timeframe, so a quiet quarter stops looking like a broken thesis.

Rule #4: builds conviction that holds, so new information sharpens your thesis instead of replacing it.

Rule #5: makes sure everything you’ve built survives when it’s finally tested.

Six rules. Six predictable ways investors get in their own way. Each one exists to prevent a mistake before it becomes irreversible.

Look at the order. It isn’t random.

You can’t protect your thesis before you have one.

You can’t follow a process before you know why you’re holding.

You can’t protect your psychology before you’ve built something worth protecting.

Each rule exists to make the next one possible. Skip one, and the ones after it become harder to keep.

That’s why RuleZero was never about finding better investments. It was about becoming the kind of investor who can hold them.

[Yakpenpro @aklttpm]

พอร์ตที่ดี ต้องออกแบบมาเพื่อเอาตัวรอดในวันที่ตลาดแย่ที่สุด ไม่ใช่วันที่ตลาดสงบที่สุด

[RuleZero Investor @RuleZeroInv]

Rule #5: Protect your psychology.

Most beginners think risk management is about protecting their portfolio. It isn’t. It’s about protecting your ability to think straight when conditions stop being normal.

Here’s the redefinition. Volatility is not risk. Volatility is just price moving. Risk is the moment fear, uncertainty, or pressure gets loud enough to override your own system.

Almost every portfolio survives when things are calm. That’s not a test.

The real test comes when your position is down, the news is loud, and your plan suddenly feels naive compared to what everyone else is saying.

That’s the moment most setups fail. Not because the analysis was wrong, but because the person built it for a version of themselves that doesn’t panic.

That version of you doesn’t exist. Not consistently.

So the real risk was never the drawdown. The real risk is designing a portfolio that only works if you stay calm, in a market that guarantees you won’t always be calm.

This changes what risk management is actually for. It’s not there to eliminate losses. It’s there to make sure you never reach the point where you’re forced to abandon your own plan in the middle of the one moment that plan was built for.

Position sizing helps. Allocation helps. Even deciding in advance how much uncertainty you can tolerate helps. But none of these matter if your system works on paper but fails in real volatility.

Because numbers don’t protect you. Your behavior under pressure does.

Build for the version of you that panics. Not the version that promises it won’t.