Professor of War & Strategy in East Asia | FRHistS | @warstudies | @kcl_CGS | Postwar Japan as a Seapower. Naval affairs. Strategy. Indo-Pacific. One ping only.
The Strategic Significance of the Maritime Theatre in the Russia–Ukraine War - good morning X.
Delighted and honoured this piece Dan Hallett and I penned is out with @RUSI_org flagship publication- a short thread about our argument: https://t.co/blhaM5n9tF
1) Although depicted as an MoD-Treasury "turf war" there's a buried lede to this story that goes back to the mega projects report of the Treasury's Office for Value for Money in June 2025, which was, in fact, rather critical of the Treasury's own behaviour https://t.co/J5CZV3XuC2
PM is expected to announce around £15bn extra for defence (to 2030) in DIP, a compromise option between the Treasury push for a maximum of £12bn and MoD push for a floor of £18bn
Plan is not yet finalised, but £15bn would fall far short of current £28bn MoD funding gap to 2030
@fharris2011 Especially given that actually when the chips are down Italy but especially Japan have managed military expenditure in a way the UK can only hope to learn.
👀 Quite the development.
At 120m, I'd be very surprised if this new Chinese submarine isn't ANOTHER new class of nuclear-powered boats.
https://t.co/gaKWGCHxBn
🌊 4,500 miles. 18 days. One mission complete.
🛳️From the Falklands to Tristan da Cunha, @HMS_Medway delivered vital support before safely recovering @BritishArmy Pathfinders.
✈️ RAF inserted.🪂Army established. ⚓Navy recovered.
Joint operations in action.
@BFSouthAtlantic
Proud to share the best of the South West with @AmbJapanUK
And slightly embarrassed that the Japanese Ambassador can say “gert lush” in a better Bristolian accent than I can!
🇬🇧 🤝 🇯🇵
I heard a lovely anecdote today about Sir Alex Younger, the former head of MI6, who has died at the age of 62.
Around the time the James Bond film “Spectre” was coming out, there was a private viewing at MI6’s HQ in Vauxhall with some of the production team and actors, including Ralph Fiennes.
Alex Younger compared the event, which included an opportunity for members of the audience (who were largely real life spies) to quiz the actors and producers.
One person asked Ralph Fiennes: Who was your favourite Bond?
He gave an answer about how they were all good, but his favourite was Daniel Craig. The rest of the team said similar.
Then Alex threw the question back to the person in the audience who had posed it, asking them who their favourite Bond was.
But before this person had time to give an answer, someone else in the audience shouted out: “You, sir!”
The individual (a former diplomat) who shared this story with me said it was one of so many examples of how admired, liked and respected Alex was by his colleagues.
“He was one of the best chiefs”.
I heard a lovely anecdote today about Sir Alex Younger, the former head of MI6, who has died at the age of 62.
Around the time the James Bond film “Spectre” was coming out, there was a private viewing at MI6’s HQ in Vauxhall with some of the production team and actors, including Ralph Fiennes.
Alex Younger compared the event, which included an opportunity for members of the audience (who were largely real life spies) to quiz the actors and producers.
One person asked Ralph Fiennes: Who was your favourite Bond?
He gave an answer about how they were all good, but his favourite was Daniel Craig. The rest of the team said similar.
Then Alex threw the question back to the person in the audience who had posed it, asking them who their favourite Bond was.
But before this person had time to give an answer, someone else in the audience shouted out: “You, sir!”
The individual (a former diplomat) who shared this story with me said it was one of so many examples of how admired, liked and respected Alex was by his colleagues.
“He was one of the best chiefs”.
I’m not intimidated by this in the slightest. But important to record this so we can see the attitudes and behaviours that are being normalised, unleashed and frankly encouraged at the top of the DoD over the past 18 months.
The Five Eyes powers - the UK, US, Australia, Canada and New Zealand - have warned there is an "aggressive" campaign directed by Beijing to find information.
Sky's security and defence editor @HaynesDeborah reports ⬇️
Latest: https://t.co/3dht7B27bm
Former MI6 chief Sir Alex Younger on Brexit: “Putin would have been absolutely delighted by our decision.”
“So would Xi. France has effectively eclipsed us. Brexit has marginalised us.” Most striking of all: “Just nobody mentions the UK.”
Very sad that Sir Alex Younger, chief of the Secret Intelligence Service, born on July 4, 1963, died of pancreatic cancer on June 2, 2026, aged 62
NEW: MI5 and Five Eyes partner agencies have just issued what they say is an unprecedented joint warning about attempts by Chinese spies to use LinkedIn to recruit Western assets
The news about Sir Alex Younger has hit really hard. I met him just once. In February this year, he was the keynote speaker at our parliamentary away day.
He was superb.
I wished he had been in government when I was in cabinet. Even in retirement he was studiously apolitical. Yet the depth of knowledge, expertise and his sheer love of the United Kingdom and deep commitment to her defence and safety shone through with his remarks and answers to even the most knotty questions.
He gave candid advice on how to use our time in opposition to get ready for defence and national security in this new geopolitical era.
So much of the recent policy work and research we have started and announced was based on his recommendations. There is so much to do and so little time.
It was a real privilege to have a long lunch with him that day. I am grateful for the time he spent with me and deeply sad to know our agreement to have further conversations will now not happen.
It is odd to feel such a loss for someone I only met once but his death is a loss not only of a remarkable man, but of the wisdom, insight and clarity he still had to offer.
He was a great man who loved, fought for and defended our country in ways we will never know.
May he rest in peace.
EXC: Treasury is preparing to seize control from the MoD of spending on the GCAP multibillion-pound fighter jet programme, as part of DIP settlement
Turf grab is part of the final DIP wrangling, with PM set to unveil c. £15bn extra for military up til 2030, including c. £6bn for GCAP, in an announcement as soon as next week (with Thurs 11 June mooted as target date)
PM and Chx have a “fundamental disagreement” over GCAP, which Reeves fears could be “just the next HS2” - ie beset by spiralling costs, delivery delays and shrinking scope - acc to govt figure. (Person close to Reeves denies characterisation of disagreement with PM)
The Treasury bid to take control of GCAP spending is designed to help avoid repeat of past MoD debacles on equipment programmes
Officials are set to justify the move by pointing to complicated intl structure of GCAP, which UK is developing with Japan and Italy, and complexity of programme... but some govt insiders fear those same structures will make spending difficult to rein in
Comes ahead of Japanese PM’s planned visit to UK next week
w/ @sylviapfeifer & @Urbandirt
https://t.co/5yRWSJiTBX
"He will be remembered by the many Ministers, colleagues, friends, and family for his utmost dedication to British public life and protecting our nation".
https://t.co/PqFMD1Oz9C