This question misunderstand the situation. SP500 is basically just M2. maybe 2%, max 3%, of real growth. The rest is just the devaluation of dollars. There is no “exit liquidity”, the price of everything just goes up in perpetuity as more dollars added to the system chase the same amount of goods and services.
I continue to watch Bitcoin here following its mild winter from $126k to $60k. Its momentum and Sharpe Ratio continues to improve vs gold and other asset classes (including commodities). There has been a clear rotation away from gold ETPs back into Bitcoin ETPs.
While Bitcoin’s true believers say that you should never sell, for me Bitcoin is one of many assets to choose from on the 60/20/20 menu, and there are levels at which Bitcoin makes sense and at which it doesn’t. Per the chart below, which shows the detrended gold/Bitcoin ratio in blue and the spread between Bitcoin and its power law in pink, at the recent low we got a double-accumulation signal. If the bear flag in the earlier chart gets rejected by new highs, the next bull may be underway.
the great irony
2008: financial crisis caused by layered trusted intermediation
late 2008: satoshi invents blockchain to eliminate trusted intermediation
2026: blockchains used to run layered trusted intermediation at 100x the scale