Justin Sublette

All views and opinions expressed are absolute fact and reality.

[Justin Sublette @subtle_finance]

The only demand destruction happening over these last two months in oil is demand destruction of speculative funds being too weary to engage markets because theres too much headline risk with the constant fear of being long and getting crucified by algorithms that think that physical oil goes back to 70 dollars in a week if there is peace. Close dated futures oil markets will almost certainly react wildly if the war and blockade were to conclusively end and thats why theres extreme incentive not to go long in futures markets. However thats because people dont understand that buying long dated oil (which is in backwardation) would almost certainly give excellent returns because the "normalization" wouldn't actually happen quickly at all. So theres an over fixation with short dated oil which is mistaken.

The downside speculation happening on every "peace talks headline" is also very very mistaken because its misguided relative to the significance and assumes incorrect incentives of both parties Iran and US.

This has been schrodinger's war. Its true in one sense and valid that the US military operations were overall highly successful. The part that is abundantly clear however is that they likely hit a wall and the final X percentage gap that the US couldnt close is actually the significant issue.

We were unable to stop Iran's missile and drone attacks, they were having the highest rate of success right before the ceasefire, not at the beginning. Arguably their strategy worked. At the point of the ceasefire we were likely unable to have military ships in such close proximity to the strait itself or in the gulf to escort shipping without unacceptable losses and risk.

If im wrong then what on earth prevented us from doing so already? Nothing would cripple Iran more than losing its ability to prevent traffic through hormuz. Then they would be devastated.

If you think the war up to this point has hurt Trumps midterms imagine if Iran is able to sink a single US ship in their waters. Even if we sent a 50 year old military vessel of no value the optics alone would be devastating.

I think the markets think that its bullish even if US loses in the sense that Trump just TACOS and claims its all a success. But its not actually. Iran now understands that they can control the straight more aggressively than ever if we back off. Simultaneously there really seem to be valid reports from the inernational atomic agency that Iran really does have highly enriched uranium.

Thats a whole seperate discussion but its ironic that the failed claims of Iraq has wmds likely kept US from being willing to step in to prevent Iran's nuclear enrichment earlier because of the fallout of intervening in Iraq on poor grounds.

If its remotely accurate then I genuinely dont think Trump has any TACO option.

Iran has no incentive to hand over the uranium it has the opposite incentive. Also Iran benefits from the perpetual "ceasefire" almost exclusively relative to the US because they know the oil crisis will grow until its impossible to ignore and severe on a level that most participants dont comprehend.

I think the odds that a deal without more conflict is reached are near zero. Iran is emboldened more than ever if the US backs off. The only reason to expect a deal is if you expect Trump to TACO wildly and he can't give Iran what they will stick to.

The only reason Trump tried to get a deal was because it allowed US to stabilize military logistics and on the off chance he could get a favorable deal then great.

If you think his blockade of Iranian crude will cause a deal to be reached on a short timeline then I've got a bridge to sell you. I dont think works to reach a deal because both sides come under more pressure to push their respective combat advantage. Iran's advantage really is assymetry. US has might. If we could've destroyed Iran's crucial remaining launchers theyd already be gone, we'd have the strait and there already woild be a deal

[Justin Sublette @subtle_finance]

@drjohnm You hate watchmen how are you affording this train 😂 is this week in cardiology pulling sponsorships?

[Justin Sublette @subtle_finance]

I do basically the same thing.

[@levelsio @levelsio]

I laugh when I see people in holding their laptops half open so their Claude Code doesn't shut off

All my projects run on a @Hetzner_Online VPS with Claude Code installed next to the sites/apps that I work on and I just SSH in with @TermiusHQ and it keeps going forever even if I disconnect (I use Mosh or Tmux or I just /resume)

My MacBook Pro battery life is also much better as everything happens on the server not my laptop

I work so incredibly fast now, it's like having a secret benefit over everyone else who are still AI coding on a laptop, then deploying to their server, while their battery life dies and they can never close their laptop

And whenever I want I can just switch to Termius on my iPhone and continue working!

My workflow is literally: I have a bug or feature, I open Termius, I type it in the project tab, it fixes it, every fix it auto commits to GitHub but it doesn't actually deploy from there anymore because it's editing the site on the server live

I don't recommend that to everyone, but I do recommend getting a VPS you can code from and then use as staging and test and deploy from there to your production server

[Garry Tan @garrytan]

The thesis is simple: the future belongs to individuals who build compounding AI systems, not to individuals who use corporate-owned centralized AI tools.

I'm trying to build these in open source so you can have them for free. That's what GBrain is.

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

More specifically, never bet against the fiscal-driven debasement train.

[Eric Wallerstein @ericwallerstein]

UPDATE: Schrödinger's War

[Alec Stapp @AlecStapp]

I ask again:

Why is the US government allowing NVIDIA to sell chips to China while American AI labs are starved for compute?

[Justin Sublette @subtle_finance]

Its so absolutely obvious that the trump administration is completely stuck regarding Iran and every single day theyre just trying to cause as much pain to oil longs as possible by claiming as many fabrications as can be dreamt up in order to drive away any maximum amount possible of speculation or even hedging. They're just trying to push every cent they can away from holding oil prices up and constantly triggering sell side cascading algorithms knowing that the long side is considered to risky for the same flurry to rush in and adjust prices back after every trashcan claim they "leak". Everytime they push it down it takes 3-5 days to make back ground for every 1 hour of fall length. All theyre trying to do is terrify anyone from buying oil who doesnt need to. They're just showing firms we can screw you over and will screw you over on volatility alone so stay out of the market.

[Justin Sublette @subtle_finance]

@pmarca Is this parody?

[Justin Sublette @subtle_finance]

@netcapgirl 1300 people who have never heard of ai?

[Justin Sublette @subtle_finance]

@netcapgirl Fuck anthropic. Claude is so overhyped it

[Justin Sublette @subtle_finance]

@sama Ive been preaching it, and ill die on that hill.

[Justin Sublette @subtle_finance]

@6_Figure_Invest @jedimarkus77 Im sorry why is everyone acting like Iran is over? Is 20% of the world's energy supply open or 99% closed? I seem to forget.

[Justin Sublette @subtle_finance]

@sama Whats the record?

[Justin Sublette @subtle_finance]

Also I really wish I could show you my version of gstack (Apeiros) that ive had running since late 2025/early 2026 I think you'd be really inspired. I worked endlessly on mine, like you. AI context building, retrieval, and orchestration is my strongest aspect. I beat memory b4 MIT

[Justin Sublette @subtle_finance]

@garrytan When are elites like you going to accept that Claude is hype and codex/chatgpt is every bit as good and better across all realms. Claude is just legacy programmers wanting to feel elite. It might be better for instant enterprise AWS integration. Aside from that...

[Justin Sublette @subtle_finance]

@jedimarkus77 Lol they broke my trading view

[Justin Sublette @subtle_finance]

@rawsalerts How come you never hear codex doing that? 🤔 legitimately who sets up AI so poorly im mind blown. Orchestration isnt actually that hard.

[Justin Sublette @subtle_finance]

@BarackObama Yeah well condemn people like Hasan Piker @hasanthehun then. Liar.

[Justin Sublette @subtle_finance]

@zerohedge Shouldn't there be like a ceasefire dropbox

[Justin Sublette @subtle_finance]

@paulg @nfergus @Caltech And yet there werent 3 serious attempts on Obamas life