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@DsrPrivate last 3 days have been a noticeable divergence between rate differentials. nothing new on tariff front afaik and tariff stocks arent moving. not sure if u aware of any end/beginning of year flows driving this
@DsrPrivate what is your process in determining how much of a recession s&p is pricing in? option implied? vs certain P/E? Likewise for STIRS? Would you happen to have any isnight on the same process for Gold/HYG etc.
@DsrPrivate how do you think gold moves in each of your three scenarios? Feels like the gold/real rates correlation has been weak recently and price has been driven by broad metals complex
@EffMktHype@aRishisays just fyi everything past JH expiry literally doesn't trade, there's no screen. can check via OMON, so wouldn't rely on looking at vols past 27th-Aug expiry