PJP @alexpkp - Twitter Profile

$MRLN. Owning it. I was the loudest bull on this name. 13 parts of research, a demo flight, calls with management. Stock went from $17 to $1.81 this morning. If you bought because of my work, you're down a lot, and that's on me. I wrote up the Sept 16 unlock and the preferred reset back in May, called them the load-bearing risk, and then kept writing as if the catalysts would outrun them. They didn't. Why this is happening. Three things, all mechanical, none of them about the business. One. The unlock. ~44M shares became eligible Wednesday on a float that had been thin since the de-SPAC. Two days of 10M+ volume against a ~1.6M average means someone with size is selling. It doesn't matter who yet. Supply of that scale hits a stock with no natural bid and the price goes where it went. Two. The reset. The Series A Preferred's conversion price re-measures on Oct 15 off the 20-day VWAP, floored at $5. That window is being measured right now, from $2, so the outcome is already the floor. Nobody steps in front of a known reset date. Buyers wait for the 15th. Three. The squeeze unwind. The bull setup was a thin float with borrow pinned near full utilization. The unlock hands shorts their borrow and their exit at the same time. Shorts covering into unlock supply doesn't produce a rally, it produces an orderly retreat while the premium comes out. Nothing operational changed this week. No contract lost, no certification setback, no guidance cut. The stock is repricing the cap table. The company is the same one it was at $3. Why the story is still sound. Cash: $183.9M at June 30, no debt, burning ~$28M a quarter. Roughly six quarters of runway without touching the market. Defense: C-130J CDR with USSOCOM was completed in June. Next step is integrating onto an aircraft and ground test. That's a program path with a $105M IDIQ ceiling, not a study. KC-135 demo window is end of September. Civil: NZ Part 146 design-organization certificate in August. The AI/ML certification issue paper closed with CAANZ is the kind of precedent that carries across aircraft classes. The Sept 3 pivot to large-aircraft certification lines up with the IAI MOU on Part 25 cargo, and IAI is one of the largest 737/767 freighter converters in the world. Cargo and reduced crew is where the money is. Proof of flight: a fully autonomous landing at Oshkosh in July, in a Cessna 208B, in the busiest airspace on the calendar.