Algionics

Structure over prediction. Market analysis across crypto, equities, and macro.

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[Algionics @algionics]

@Vivek4real_ In the US "national priority" means execution within 6 months

In Korea it means it made the first line of a 5 year plan that probably wont get executed

Lee said this almost a year ago

No ETF
No stablecoin framework
No timeline
They dont even have the legislation written yet

[Algionics @algionics]

@cryptorover Happens every April. Tax payments fill TGA, liquidity dips, someone posts a warning like its new

But this time the drain isnt working. S&P up 2.5% since the 14th. BTC above 77k

Same setup as Jan, different reaction. Why?

[Algionics @algionics]

In the US "national priority" means execution within 6 months. In Korea it means it made the first line of a 5 year plan that probably wont get executed

Lee said this almost a year ago. No ETF. No stablecoin framework. No timeline. They dont even have the legislation written yet.

The bill that was supposed to make any of this possible missed its 2025 deadline and is still stuck because FSC and Bank of Korea cant agree on who gets to regulate what

Meanwhile the US already has multiple spot BTC ETFs live and pulling in billions. Korea is still arguing about who signs the paperwork

You think they actually ship this time or is this another new years resolution?

[Algionics @algionics]

Bloomberg analyst called Goldman's product "boomer candy"

Pretty much sums up Wall Street rn. They dont need BTC to moon. Just need people to keep buying
And they are

What does this mean for the next 6 months?
#Bitcoin #BTC #ETF #WallStreet #Crypto

[Algionics @algionics]

The fee war is wild too. MSBT charges 0.14%, IBIT charges 0.25%. Sounds like nothing until you realize these funds manage tens of billions

This isnt about believing in bitcoin. Its about who gets to skim the most off the top

[Algionics @algionics]

Heres the part nobody wants to say out loud

These products arent for retail traders. Theyre for wealth managers and pension funds checking a "crypto exposure" box

You sitting at home watching charts? Youre not the customer. Youre the liquidity

[Algionics @algionics]

Morgan Stanley is selling you a ticket to the ride. Goldman is selling you a chair on the sideline where you collect rent from the people on the ride

One needs BTC to go up. The other doesnt care

[Algionics @algionics]

Goldman looked at the spot ETF market and said nope. BlackRock already sitting on $55B with IBIT. That race is over

So they took JPMorgan's covered call playbook (JEPI, $35B+) and just ran it on bitcoin.

Nobody had done that yet

[Algionics @algionics]

Morgan Stanley's MSBT holds actual bitcoin. Cheapest spot ETF out there. $100M first week

Goldman didnt even try spot. They buy other BTC ETFs, sell calls on top, collect premium monthly

Completely different product

[Algionics @algionics]

Morgan Stanley launched a Bitcoin ETF. Goldman filed one a week later. Sounds like Wall Street finally believes in BTC right?

Nah. Look closer
#Bitcoin #BTC #ETF #WallStreet #Crypto

[Algionics @algionics]

https://t.co/td009lYyGY

[Algionics @algionics]

@Investingcom took 25 years to get back here. fair value estimates are still sitting around 42 though so the narrative is doing most of the work right now

[Algionics @algionics]

$78k btc while oil dumps 13% and equities print all time highs. everything moving at once
4h volume structure shows a clean breakout from the range thats held since march. next heavy cluster around 87k
momentum confirms but this is all built on a ceasefire that expires tuesday

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: $78,000 Bitcoin

[Algionics @algionics]

breaking out of the lowest value area on the 4h. structure says next resistance sits around 87k
momentum confirmed. now its about whether this holds or gets faded before it gets there

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: $78,000 Bitcoin

[Algionics @algionics]

@WatcherGuru oil down 13%, equities at all time highs, and btc ripping past 78k all in the same session. risk on doesnt even begin to describe this

[Algionics @algionics]

@Investingcom small caps leading at +2.5% tells you a lot. those get hit hardest by energy costs so theyre the first to rip when the pressure comes off
vix barely moving though. market was already pricing this in before the headline dropped

[Algionics @algionics]

@WatcherGuru thats like 7 weeks of war premium evaporating in one candle. wild
but "for the remaining period of ceasefire" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that announcement. ceasefire expires tuesday. this whole move could reverse just as fast

[Algionics @algionics]

@KobeissiLetter historically when Nasdaq rallies 11%+ in 10 sessions, 12 month forward returns average +24% with a 74% win rate. sounds great
except the last time it posted a 10 day streak was November 2021. we all know what came next. stats favor the bulls but the last analog is a warning

[Algionics @algionics]

@BitcoinArchive Draper called $10k in 2014. hit it in 2017. called $250k in 2018. then 2020. then 2022. then 2024. now 18 months from here
the direction has never been the problem. the timeline always is. thats the difference between a thesis and a trade

[Algionics @algionics]

put/call at 0.68. below 0.70 has historically been a contrarian warning for complacency. S&P 500 call volume went from 500k to 3 million contracts in two weeks. thats a 6x spike
everyone is positioned the same direction. thats not conviction, thats crowding. VIX at 18 isnt pricing this