Most trading accounts you follow only post wins.
I log every trade — wins AND losses — in a public tracker anyone can open.
363W / 113L · 76.3% across 476 closed trades. Avg winner +84%, avg loser −40%. Worst trade: −99%. Still in there.
Free Discord gets a daily alert + the full log. No card, no catch:
👉 https://t.co/xt6LChTEDM
Documented, backward-looking. NFA.
$APLD is sitting on the 250 EMA. Same line it bounced off last time before running from 21 to 50.
That's the pivot. It either holds here or it doesn't, and RSI is about as washed out as it gets.
The case for it: revenue +139%, roughly $36B in contracted backlog on take-or-pay leases, analysts sitting at a $74 median.
We added a Lotto Board to the desk. Every hour it ranks the most-traded sub-50¢ weekly contracts in the market — the stuff fintwit screenshots and pretends is analysis.
Here's the label we put on it, permanently: "high chance of expiring worthless, size tiny, not a recommendation."
Everyone sells you lottery tickets. We just publish where the line is longest — and keep it in a clearly marked corner, away from the actual trade plans.
Free, live, refreshing hourly:
https://t.co/QggVKDVCxz
Play the casino if you want. At least know it's a casino. 🎲🧾
34,366 contracts traded on the $FIG $28 calls today. 12 cents each.
Do the math before you follow it: FIG's at $23.86. That call needs a 17% move in TWO DAYS just to go in the money, and there's no catalyst — earnings aren't until August 14. This stock moves 11% in a normal week.
That's not smart money. That's ~$412k of lottery tickets.
The real story is better than the lotto: FIG is down 85% from its high because everyone decided AI design tools killed it. Meanwhile revenue grew 46%, net dollar retention is 139%, and Citi, BofA and Goldman all just went bullish with $30-36 targets while it sits at $24.
The thesis is interesting. The 2-day 28 calls are a coin flip. Don't confuse the two. NFA.
Tomorrow’s names in play — the read + one line in the sand each. Free, from tonight’s brief:
$NVDA — cleanest long in the group. Call flow clustered, 3:1 tilt. Holds the reclaim = constructive. Loses it on a hot PPI = step aside.
$MU $AMAT — it’s a GROUP move. Trade the theme, watch $SMH as the tell, not the single names.
$IBM — do not catch. Flow is all puts, knife’s still falling. A “cheap” dip into a gap-down is not a base.
Yesterday’s CPI was the setup. Tomorrow’s PPI is the confirm-or-deny.
8:30a — cool wholesale print backs the disinflation read and semis keep leading. Hot print, and the one-day relief unwinds starting with the most extended names.
Also tomorrow: Warsh at Senate Banking, Morgan Stanley closes bank season, and $IBM bagholders learning why the first green candle after −25% isn’t a base.
Full free brief — both scenarios, 7 names, the lines that matter:
https://t.co/k3bdNWDx9u
React, don’t predict. 🧾
My flow board lit up on $SKHY this morning. Conviction 87. Bull.
Here's what it flagged: +$2.1M in net options premium, calls outpacing puts 2-to-1, all landing on a stock that just ripped +27%.
The story behind the signal: SKHY is SK hynix, the Korean memory giant that just did the biggest foreign IPO in US history and hit the Nasdaq last week. It's the #1 HBM supplier, the memory inside every major AI chip, Nvidia's main source, 70%+ margins. US institutions can finally buy it, and the flow says they are.
The board built the full plan, entry, stop, target. It's on the card.
Honest part: brand-new listing, so it's volatile, it already gave back ~6% after-hours. Memory's cyclical, Samsung's coming. Size it right, this is a fast one. NFA.
$SEZL on our board— flagged BULL at 85 conviction while it was up 10%, with the exact contract in the flow: the 130C @ $43.30.
Stock closed +14.2%. That contract’s up ~20% on the premium since the flag — and it doesn’t expire till Friday, so this receipt is still live. We’ll post the final print either way.
That’s the desk’s whole job: not predicting — telling you where convicted money already is, while the move is still happening.
Board’s live all session, top is free:
https://t.co/QggVKDVCxz 🧾
Not advice. Flow can be wrong — that’s why every flag gets tracked to its ending, win or lose.
This is today’s highest-conviction board — the actual member view, trade plans included.
Consider it a free sample. 👇
The desk scans every hot 0-7DTE contract in the market and ranks the whole tape by one conviction score. Today’s top four:
🔻 $IBM — 89, BEAR. Flagged while it collapsed 25%. The highest conviction of the day was money ATTACKING a name, not chasing one.
🟢 $PLTR 83 · $NVDA 80 · $SEZL 78 riding the soft-CPI tape.
Each card carries the hottest contract in that name’s real flow — live premium, stop and target framed on it. Not my picks. The money’s picks, ranked.
Members see this live all session. Top of the board is free:
https://t.co/QggVKDVCxz
Educational ranking, not trade calls. NFA — the chain doesn’t care about your feelings. 🧾
This is what a −25% day on a mega-cap does to the options chain.
$IBM 222.5 puts expiring Friday: +83,700%. TODAY. A penny contract this morning is $8.95 right now.
Nobody catches that number — that’s a lottery print, and pretending otherwise is how gurus are born.
But here’s what was catchable: 👇
Our conviction desk had $IBM flagged BEAR at 89 conviction with −$7.7M in net put flow and 6x relative volume while this unfolded — the tape was screaming before the headlines finished typing.
You don’t need the 83,000% ticket. You need to know which name the money is attacking, while it’s happening. That’s the whole desk.
Top of the board is free, live all session:
https://t.co/QggVKDWan7 🧾
$IBM just had the worst day in its history. Down 25%. ~$68 BILLION erased in one session.
Here’s what our conviction desk was showing while it happened:
🔻 BEAR flag · conviction 89
🔻 −$7.7M net flow — puts bought aggressively at the ask
🔻 6.23x relative volume
The put side of this tape printed four and even five-digit percent gains today. That’s what it looks like when the flow screams before the headlines finish typing.
The desk runs live all session — and the top of the board is free:
https://t.co/QggVKDVCxz
This is why we watch the tape and not the news. 🧾
Tomorrow decides the whole week before most people finish their coffee:
CPI at 8:30. Warsh testifies at 10. Big banks open earnings season pre-market.
We published the full free brief —
https://t.co/k6qMeE6Sao
sweep vs block. two words everyone watching flow sees all day and half of fintwit can’t define.
same $1M order, opposite behavior:
https://t.co/JcneNRCsWi
I love $MRVL as a company. One of the best AI-silicon names on the board. But "best buy in the market right now"? Not while it's doing THIS.
It's down almost 8% today, just lost the 252 shelf, and it's knifing toward 208. That's not a bottom. That's a falling knife mid-drop.
Same rule I used on Oracle an hour ago: I don't catch it here. I want to see it HOLD 208 and reclaim before I trust a buy. Chasing a name while it's actively breaking down is how you end up down 20% waiting to be right.
Great company. Wrong moment. Let it show me the floor first. NFA.