Alineaglobal

Fondo de inversión mixto global, con sesgo macro top down

[Vitor Constâncio @VMRConstancio]

Interesting: the FED minutes showed significant pushback to the 25 bp cut in rates. Besides two votes against “several” officials argued in favour of keeping rates steady” . Perhaps independence and resistance to financial markets’ dominance are alive with future consequences

[Frederik Ducrozet @fwred]

"In a perfect world EU leaders would choose the strongest, best-qualified personality for the job, irrespective of national background and ignoring the trade-offs involved in other top-level appointments." #teamCoeuré

[Federico Steinberg @Steinbergf]

Aquí mis reflexiones sobre la economía en la@campana electoral

[Frederik Ducrozet @fwred]

Inflection point?

[Frederik Ducrozet @fwred]

Encouraging headline and details for French PMIs, including an acceleration in job creation and a marginal decline in new orders.
"Although the ‘gilets jaunes’ protests are still
causing disruption, the economy showed resilience."

[Frederik Ducrozet @fwred]

Early days, but that's a very encouraging signal as far as investment spending is concerned in France.

[Frederik Ducrozet @fwred]

Euro area Q3 GDP growth was in line with ECB staff projections... lower range. Adding to downside risks ahead of the December meeting, although I continue to believe that core inflation is more important to them (assuming growth stabilises).

[Frederik Ducrozet @fwred]

'Gone Crazy' Fed? 🤔

[Frederik Ducrozet @fwred]

Nice @fteconomics recap with eight contenders for ECB top job after Weidmann setback. Not holding my breath for Benoit Coeuré, unfortunately, as the political/legal hurddles look high. https://t.co/wKf0swaf6G

[Frederik Ducrozet @fwred]

I stand corrected. Looking at adjusted German orders series excluding big ticket items, demand looks much more resilient. Core capital goods and domestic durable goods still trending higher. Intermediate goods the weakest (inventories?), but overall not that dramatic after all.

[Cierre de Mercados @cdemercados]

Álvaro Sanmartín, gestor de @alineaglobal :
"La economía americana va como un tiro. Y eso implica mayores precios y subidas de tipos de interés".

[Alineaglobal @alineaglobal]

@fwred The most internationally comparable core inflation in the Eurozone is clearly on an upward trend. The QE will come to an end sooner rather than later and this means long term rates have big upside potential.

[Alineaglobal @alineaglobal]

(2) Core inflationary pressures are on the rise in the Eurozone..

Exactly what the ECB needs to put an end to QE.

[Alineaglobal @alineaglobal]

(1) In May services prices in Germany went up by 1.9% YoY, clearly above the historical average. Going forward goods’ prices should also be pushed higher by healthy demand, diminishing spare capacity and a weaker euro.

[Frederik Ducrozet @fwred]

I thought I'd never do this, but there's always an exception. #ECBmeme

[Alineaglobal @alineaglobal]

Unfilled manufacturing orders in Germany continue to grow at very high YoY rates: rather than decelerating further Germany seems poised to see a significant rebound in activity already in Q2.

[Alineaglobal @alineaglobal]

Life not live... sorry for the mistake...

[Alineaglobal @alineaglobal]

1Q Employment Cost Index: +0.8% Q/Q; private wage measure up 2.9% Y/Yy, fastest gain since 3Q 2008. The Phillips Curve is coming back to live (it was never dead, actually)

[Frederik Ducrozet @fwred]

Stabilisation looks good enough for the ECB to carry on.
The courage not to act, the other way. https://t.co/xHR34NV6yi