aliq

data in Web3 | building dashboards on @dune | exploring DeFi, prediction markets & EVM | @zscdao member

[aliq @aliqnar]

I know that even now many people in CT still have not tried @Polymarket , so allow me to sell you this idea

human beings evolve through risk. if the tribes of our ancestors had not dared to move forward, explore new lands, and seek new opportunities, our species would not exist. carry this take with you for the rest of your life and grasp a simple truth: the more you risk, the more foundation you create for victory

this is exactly what drives the obsession of funds, promoters, and CT as a whole with prediction markets. it is a natural human desire to take risks. but if you refuse to take any risk at all, the best you can hope for is to stay exactly where you are

traders like ascetic0x and rwo built huge PnL not because they are magically talented or just lucky. they combined risk with an idea they believed in. of course luck played a role, but I am sure there were countless failures before the breakthroughs

so friends: never stop gambling, but always keep your head on your shoulders

@zscdao

[Forbes @Forbes]

Inside The Deal That Made Polymarket’s Founder One Of The Youngest Billionaires On Earth https://t.co/qnXSV3bTnY

[aliq @aliqnar]

Why am I betting on "lighter market cap (FDV) > $3B one day after launch?" NO

Short and to the point. 3 reasons:

> most recent launches except monad had very weak debuts. Projects are launching very poorly right now due to market conditions.

> read twitter and do your own research - a lot of people are pointing out alleged insider wallets positioning for this.

> the @Lighter_xyz team is building a product, not noise and historically those teams are the least interested in playing chart games.

NFA, not a recommendation just food for thought
to me this idea is obvious but you're better off finding your own reasons to bet or not to bet.

[aliq @aliqnar]

How will this play out?

Right now X is flooded with posts about insider trading related to the upcoming $LIT listing TGE

> “Trader 134569699 bet over 100,000 dollars that Lighter FDV would be below 1B” a post by @said116dao

> “New wallet. Limit orders. Lighter. Connect the dots” a post by @RDX_arXS

> “HOW TO FIND INSIDERS ON POLYMARKET. FULL GUIDE” a post by @RetroValix

Huge respect to everyone from @zscdao for their strong analytics.

But the main question is bigger. are you noticing this trend, where now every listing, TGE, and ICO or IDO comes with similar manipulation narratives?

I really like the @Lighter_xyz team and started writing about them a long time ago, but there are always people inside who can abuse their position.

At the same time, its also possible that competitors try to damage the teams reputation by creating or amplifying such manipulations.

So what do you think overall: are prediction markets a way for the smartest and fastest to find inefficiencies, or just another way for the rich to get even richer?

[Stace @zeror1sk]

https://t.co/1p2D4AfaLN

[aliq @aliqnar]

@ashen_one @XicoSR @solana @SolanaConf @BitRobotNetwork it feels like movie, I can't believe that

[aliq @aliqnar]

@MINHxDYNASTY what age exactly do you mean?

[aliq @aliqnar]

@yellowpantherx @nics_off let us hit the top

[aliq @aliqnar]

@StarPlatinum_ bro, I don't think that Chris gain his muscles because of the girls 😅

[aliq @aliqnar]

@AlenaChramtsova @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @PolyBaddies Alena, I like your design
these kittens🥹

[aliq @aliqnar]

@meta_alchemist I'm glad to find you at this time
Bookmarked this banger!

[aliq @aliqnar]

@meta_alchemist earlier I was neither a builder nor a creator now I'm basically both thanks to twitter and vibe coding haha

[aliq @aliqnar]

@meta_alchemist it sounds like something similar to inventing the wheel from which both farming machines and tanks were built

as far as i know @21st_dev fits your description above

[aliq @aliqnar]

@meta_alchemist where do you think the narrative will move next? how do you stay on the cutting edge and be the first to really understand things like this, in your opinion?

[aliq @aliqnar]

@0xEmoni @Polymarket it sounds really smart, but of course you never know what might get into someones head or what their next move will be

[aliq @aliqnar]

@RDX_arXS @said116dao I like watching this from the sidelines, but I hope my 20 points can get pumped by these speculations so I end up with a nice profit too😄

[aliq @aliqnar]

How will this play out?

Right now X is flooded with posts about insider trading related to the upcoming $LIT listing TGE

> “Trader 134569699 bet over 100,000 dollars that Lighter FDV would be below 1B” a post by @said116dao

> “New wallet. Limit orders. Lighter. Connect the dots” a post by @RDX_arXS

> “HOW TO FIND INSIDERS ON POLYMARKET. FULL GUIDE” a post by @RetroValix

Huge respect to everyone from @zscdao for their strong analytics.

But the main question is bigger. are you noticing this trend, where now every listing, TGE, and ICO or IDO comes with similar manipulation narratives?

I really like the @Lighter_xyz team and started writing about them a long time ago, but there are always people inside who can abuse their position.

At the same time, its also possible that competitors try to damage the teams reputation by creating or amplifying such manipulations.

So what do you think overall: are prediction markets a way for the smartest and fastest to find inefficiencies, or just another way for the rich to get even richer?

[aliq @aliqnar]

Will we make money on @Lighter_xyz ?

Just six months ago this project was a relative under radar gem, and now coinbase is writing about its listing.

My biggest posts were related to lighter for example back then I estimated the point price at around $6 (now its trading on the premarket at $60+).

But there is still time to make money there are plenty of @Polymarket bets where if you just use your brain a bit you can catch solid multiples.

[aliq @aliqnar]

@0xEmoni @said116dao I hope so too, I think you're right - time will tell

[aliq @aliqnar]

@Frank_web33 @zama what do you mean by data that destroys trust and undermines security when shared?
i dont fully understand it

[aliq @aliqnar]

@SelenkaOnChain @Lighter_xyz thanks bro, I love writing about lighter, especially when its something positive

[aliq @aliqnar]

Will we make money on @Lighter_xyz ?

Just six months ago this project was a relative under radar gem, and now coinbase is writing about its listing.

My biggest posts were related to lighter for example back then I estimated the point price at around $6 (now its trading on the premarket at $60+).

But there is still time to make money there are plenty of @Polymarket bets where if you just use your brain a bit you can catch solid multiples.

[aliq @aliqnar]

most ppl farming @Lighter_xyz points got no clue what they're farming on

they ape into beta with size chasing $6/pt alpha
but forget to ask: who holds the vault keys?

thanks @derteil00 and @DoNotTTS for their research

[aliq @aliqnar]

@0xSntx @Polymarket @zscdao @PolymarketTrade yes, if you need stats just let me know!