Aliro

Corporate Finance Advisor | Investor

[Aliro @alirodavid]

@nayibbukele do you remember this tweet (february 12, 2022) when #Bitcoin ₿ price was at $42,200 usd. ;)

[Bloomberg @business]

Could a model built by Anthropic cause civilizational collapse? Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and @EmilyChangTV discuss on The Circuit his own estimate of a 10% to 25% risk and the need for global checks, balances and rigorous internal defense mechanisms https://t.co/xGHusHTo3p

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

SpaceX is a great company and will go on to do great things. But a few months from now we will look back at this moment as peak mania. Investors are pricing SpaceX stock as if the future has already happened.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Everyone wants SpaceX shares because they expect a first-day pop.

Many investors already plan to sell on Day 1, treating it like free money.

But if that's true, it means the IPO was priced too low and SpaceX left billions on the table.

Why a direct listing makes more sense.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: The Dominican Republic reportedly plans to build a commercial spaceport in the small town of Oviedo.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

FED'S HAMMACK SAYS REASONABLE TO KEEP RATES STEADY FOR NOW BUT IF RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE IT MAY SOON BE APPROPRIATE TO ACT AGAINST HIGH INFLATION

[Gabriela Siller Pagaza @GabySillerP]

Se ve buenísima la creación de empleo en EEUU, pero se debió a empleos de tiempo parcial que se incrementaron en 266 mil, mientras que los de tiempo completo disminuyeron en 79 mil.

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

Our internal data shows Claude is accelerating AI development—a possible path to recursive self-improvement, or AI autonomously building a more capable successor.

It’s happening faster than we thought, and the implications deserve greater attention. https://t.co/OVVPJO7VQx

[Jairon Severino @JaironSeverino]

Cuando el banco, fondo de inversión y puesto de bolsa pertenecen al mismo grupo financiero —y los tres financian el mismo proyecto— el conflicto de interés deja de ser una posibilidad teórica. El @FMInoticias ya lo diagnosticó. La Constitución ya manda corregirlo. @alirodavid

[Aliro @alirodavid]

https://t.co/5gqO5iLbg6

[Aliro @alirodavid]

@elDineroDO

[Jairon Severino @JaironSeverino]

Para no repetir lo de Baninter via @elDineroDO https://t.co/vw3P1mXCwF @alirodavid

[Aliro @alirodavid]

$NVDA Q1 2026 EARNINGS:

• Revenue $81.6B vs Est. $79.2B
• EPS $1.85 vs Est. $1.78
• Data Center $75.2B vs Est. $73.5B
• Gross Margin 75% vs. Est. 75%

Q2 2026 Guidance:
• Revenue $90.6B vs Est. $87.2B
• Gross Margin 75% vs. Est. 75%

[Aliro @alirodavid]

$NVDA Q1 2026 EARNING

• Revenue $81.6B vs Est. $79.2B
• EPS $1.85 vs Est. $1.78
• Data Center $75.2B vs Est. $73.5B
• Gross Margin 75% vs. Est. 75%

Q2 Guidance
• Revenue $90.6B vs Est. $87.2B
• Gross Margin 75% vs. Est. 75%

[Aliro @alirodavid]

$SPY Global markets are flashing stress signals, and the traditional macro playbook is breaking down: bonds are no longer acting as a safe haven, housing is freezing, and labor markets are weakening under AI and geopolitical pressures.

Capital is fleeing both equities and fixed income. US 10-year Treasury yields are hitting yearly highs as global institutions unload US debt, signaling expectations of persistent inflation and rising global stress.

Higher yields are driving up the cost of capital: 30-year fixed mortgage rates are back to 6.36%, with fears of a return to 7%+, threatening a severe housing freeze.

The labor market is also cooling rapidly. US hiring rates are nearing recessionary levels, Big Tech is cutting jobs to fund massive AI infrastructure spending, and voluntary quits have collapsed amid growing uncertainty.

The economy is slowing, yet inflation remains sticky due to oil and geopolitical shocks — the worst-case scenario for central banks.

In this environment, speculative assets struggle. The focus shifts toward high-quality businesses with durable competitive advantages, pricing power, and sustainable cash flows. Quality matters more than ever.

[Aliro @alirodavid]

$YETI Q1’26 Key takeaway:

China exposure in U.S. COGS cut to <5%; supply chain now diversified across Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand & Mexico. They solved the tariff problem before tariffs exploded.

Gross margins guided to recover and expand YoY in H2’26 after ~300bps H1 pressure. Potential estimate revisions ahead.

International grew from 2% of sales in 2018 to 21% today, targeting 23%+ in FY26 with UK, DACH & Japan driving growth.

Wholesale +19% signals strong retailer confidence and healthy sell-through demand.• Corporate sales (~25% of D2C) still viewed as “untapped potential” by management — high-margin recurring revenue stream.

FY26 marks the 4th straight year with $200M+ FCF. Add $100M more buybacks on top of ~$300M in 2025. ~6% FCF yield before growth.

[Aliro @alirodavid]

$YETI Q1 2026 EARNINGS

- Revenue: $380.4M vs. Est. $374.7M
- Adj. EPS: $0.26 vs. Est. $0.18–0.19
- Tariff headwind on EPS: ($0.09)/share ·
- EPS without tariffs ~$0.35

- Wholesale Revenue: $183.6M
- Direct-to-Consumer (D2C): $196.8M
- International: 21% of revenue
- Inventory: $318M · -4% YoY
- Operating Margin: 3.3% vs. 6.2% Q1'25
- FCF: ($43.8M) vs. ($89.2M) Q1'25

FY2026 GUIDANCE:
- Net Sales growth: 7–8% (raised from 6–8%)
- Adj. EPS: $2.83–2.89 (raised from $2.77–2.83)
- Operating Margin: ~14.6% (raised from 14.4%)
- FCF: $200–225M · Buybacks: $100M planned for 2026

[Aliro @alirodavid]

$YETI Q1 2026 EARNINGS

- Revenue: $380.4M vs. Est. $374.7M
- Adj. EPS: $0.26 vs. Est. $0.18–0.19
- Tariff headwind on EPS: ($0.09)/share ·
- EPS without tariffs ~$0.35

- Wholesale Revenue: $183.6M
- Direct-to-Consumer (D2C): $196.8M
- International: 21% of revenue
- Inventory: $318M · -4% YoY
- Operating Margin: 3.3% vs. 6.2% Q1'25
- FCF: ($43.8M) vs. ($89.2M) Q1'25

FY2026 GUIDANCE:
- Net Sales growth: 7–8% (raised from 6–8%)
- Adj. EPS: $2.83–2.89 (raised from $2.77–2.83)
- Operating Margin: ~14.6% (raised from 14.4%)
- FCF: $200–225M · Buybacks: $100M planned for 2026

[Aliro @alirodavid]

$AMAT just delivered one of the strongest AI infrastructure signals in semis:

• Growth outlook raised from 20% → 30%+ for 2026
• New TSMC partnership at the EPIC Center (joining Samsung)
• Acquiring NEXX to expand AI chip packaging dominance
• HBM/DRAM demand visibility now stretches across multiple quarters
• Stanford, NVIDIA & Synopsys joining the EPIC ecosystem
• CFO says supply chain constraints are being proactively removed
AMAT is no longer just a semi equipment supplier — it’s becoming the core infrastructure platform behind the AI compute buildout.

[Aliro @alirodavid]

$AMAT Q2 FY2026 EARNINGS

- Revenue: $7.91B vs. Est. $7.69B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $2.86 vs. Est. $2.68
- Non-GAAP GM: 50.0%
- Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 32.1% ·

- Semiconductor Systems Revenue: $5.97B
- Applied Global Services (AGS): $1.67B
- Cash from Operations: $845M
- Returned $765M to shareholders (buybacks +Div.)
- Dividend raised: +15% to $0.53/share

Q3 FY2026 GUIDANCE:
- Revenue: $8.95B ± $500M vs. Est. ~$7.8B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $3.36 ± $0.20

Strategic Catalyst: The real catalyst was AMAT guiding Q3 revenue to $8.95B vs. ~$7.8B consensus and stating semiconductor equipment revenue will grow 30%+ in 2026. This signals the AI-driven capex cycle is accelerating faster than expected, positioning AMAT as a core infrastructure bottleneck for advanced chip production.

[Aliro @alirodavid]

$AMAT Q2 FY2026 EARNINGS

- Revenue: $7.91B vs. Est. $7.69B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $2.86 vs. Est. $2.68
- Non-GAAP GM: 50.0%
- Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 32.1% ·

- Semiconductor Systems Revenue: $5.97B
- Applied Global Services (AGS): $1.67B
- Cash from Operations: $845M
- Returned $765M to shareholders (buybacks +Div.)
- Dividend raised: +15% to $0.53/share

Q3 FY2026 GUIDANCE:
- Revenue: $8.95B ± $500M vs. Est. ~$7.8B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $3.36 ± $0.20

Strategic Catalyst: The real catalyst was AMAT guiding Q3 revenue to $8.95B vs. ~$7.8B consensus and stating semiconductor equipment revenue will grow 30%+ in 2026. This signals the AI-driven capex cycle is accelerating faster than expected, positioning AMAT as a core infrastructure bottleneck for advanced chip production.