Ali Saleem

[Ali Saleem @alisaleem2004]

The Lake Lucerne Summit has created an initial architecture that could, if developed carefully, become the foundation for a wider and more durable settlement. The political oversight mechanism is emerging. Technical workstreams have been established. Communication arrangements for Hormuz and Lebanon have been announced. The parties remain engaged. But the architecture is incomplete as many aspects including the verification remains undefined. The Lebanon mechanism lacks publicly confirmed operational detail. The relationship with Israel and key Gulf actors requires further work. The reconstruction package remains more promise than programme. Dispute resolution needs a clear protocol and escalation ladder. The role of international institutions, including the UN and the Security Council, requires early clarification.

[Ali Saleem @alisaleem2004]

The Iran - US Peace Architecture: https://t.co/ye2ZWtjhxv

[Ali Saleem @alisaleem2004]

The title says it all.
The Peace Deal That Isn't Quite a Deal https://t.co/WwwnwJsW0f

[RT @RT_com]

Iran's President Pezeshkian SIGNS MoU between Washington & Tehran — Trump signature CLEARLY VISIBLE on paper

[PassBlue @pass_blue]

In France, signing the Islamabad MOU

[Nasir Andisha-نصير.ا انديشه @AndishaNasir]

The week begins with 2 small positive developments:
Are we witnessing a quiet, systemic shift in how the international community handles unconstitutional regimes? Two important developments from the UN security and human rights apparatus this week suggest a coordinated, legal pushback against autocracy and "hostage diplomacy." Here is why this matters for the future of democratic resistance in Afghanistan and Myanmar.

First, the UN Security Council. During negotiations to renew the mandate for the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), the US, UK, and France successfully stripped a crucial phrase from the draft text. The Taliban are no longer referred to as Afghanistan’s “de facto authorities.”

Instead, the UNSC will use the phrase “relevant authorities.” While it sounds like minor bureaucratic hair-splitting, in international law, semantics are sovereignty. Why ? Because demoting the Taliban from "de facto rulers" to "relevant actors" deliberately starves the regime of the creeping legal legitimacy it desperately craves.

Second- Geneva and New York's handling of Myanmar is important to us too. This morning at the 62nd Human Rights Session, the council maintained its strict ban on seating the military junta. Simultaneously, the UN General Assembly (UNGA) continues to keep the democratic National Unity Government (NUG) shadow representative active.

What do Kabul/ Kandahar and Rangoon/Naypyidaw have in common? Both the Taliban and the Tatmadaw utilize what analysts call "hostage diplomacy" means holding civilian populations, geopolitical access, and regional stability hostage to force Western democracies into a game of transactional engagement and normalization.

For years, the argument for engagement was "pragmatism." Autocrats argued that because they held the capital city and the guns, the world had to treat them as governments. These new UN moves show that the international community is beginning to uncouple territorial control from diplomatic validation.

Finally and significantly, this is a direct message to the European Union and regional bodies currently contemplating expanded ties or invitations to Taliban delegations under the guise of "pragmatic engagement." If the UN Security Council is actively downgrading the Taliban's status to deny them legitimacy, the EU must urgently rethink its own diplomatic posture.

By holding the line on credentials in Myanmar and denying legal recognition to the Taliban in Afghanistan, the international arena is signaling that raw military force no longer guarantees a seat at the table. For democratic forces fighting from the shadows or exile, the diplomatic shield is holding.

[António Guterres @antonioguterres]

I warmly congratulate the US & Iran for having reached a peace deal that provides for an immediate & permanent ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as a framework for further negotiations. This represents a critical step towards the peaceful settlement of the conflict.

My deep appreciation goes to Pakistan, Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and other regional countries, for the constructive role played in supporting the negotiations that led to the peace deal.

[Shehbaz Sharif @CMShehbaz]

Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

The official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland.

We would like to thank the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran for their commitment to finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict. We would also like to extend our sincere appreciation to our brothers in this mediation effort, the great leadership of State of Qatar, for their support in reaching this agreement. I would also especially thank the visionary leadership of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Republic of Türkiye for their immense contributions in this regard.

With the agreement now in place, mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week. These pre-implementation discussions will lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony.

@realDonaldTrump
@JDVance
@SecRubio
@SteveWitkoff
@SEPeaceMissions
@drpezeshkian
@mb_ghalibaf
@araghchi

[PassBlue @pass_blue]

6 candidates; anyone else?
https://t.co/qxPLqdOwhj

[Ali Saleem @alisaleem2004]

🥲

[Geól. Sergio Almazán @chematierra]

TERREMOTO EN FILIPINAS 🔴
Impresionantes imágenes en la Escuela Primaria Mahayahay en Davao Occidental 🇵🇭

Durante la ceremonia a la bandera en el primer día de clases, se registró el terremoto de M7.8 los maestros y estudiantes implementaron de inmediato los protocolos de seguridad para garantizar la seguridad de todos.
Las clases fueron suspendidas después de la evaluación de seguridad realizada.
#Earthquake
VIDEO CORTESÍA: DepEd Mahayahay Elementary School
Via @gmanews

[Ali Saleem @alisaleem2004]

Prayers for Mindanao and the Philippines. Stay safe everyone.

[Ali Saleem @alisaleem2004]

The headlines will tell you the MILF is fracturing;

I see something different and more important.

Last night, the MILF Central Committee officially released its resolution, indefinitely suspended Interim Chief Minister Macacua as Chief of Staff of the BIAF. A sitting Interim Chief Minister, suspended from the very armed command that is party to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, and the ceasefire mechanisms. in reality, both the Government and MILF are required to reach a shared understanding of what “MILF-Led” means in peace implementation.

But here’s what the headlines are missing: Chairman Al Haj Murad Ebrahim has concurrently assumed the BIAF Chief of Staff position. The peace architecture, at its most sensitive operational point, has been safeguarded. In my latest Substack, I go beyond the drama to the architecture that still holds, the Peace Implementing Panels, the Joint Normalization Committee, the decommissioning deadlock, the vacant GPH panel chair, and the September elections that could institutionalise the split or offer a pathway back.

This process has survived moments that felt insurmountable. I’ve seen it up close, in Manila, Cotabato, Davao, and Kuala Lumpur. Reconciliation is still possible. But the peace table needs a chair, and the mechanisms need to be used

[Ali Saleem @alisaleem2004]

Beyond the Headlines – Part two https://t.co/qFmqMdCfWb

[Ali Saleem @alisaleem2004]

For decades, the world looked to Geneva, Vienna, Oslo, and New York when wars broke out. The Secretary‑General offered his “good offices.” Blue helmets monitored ceasefires. But that system has been quietly unravelling and post Covid‑19 geopolitics accelerated the shift. Today, for Asian conflicts, peace is being made in Islamabad, Doha, Ankara, Kuala Lumpur, and Muscat. Not by traditional neutrals, but by relatively small regional countries with their own armies, their own agendas, and their own “non‑kinetic” leverage. Pakistan’s mediation between the US and Iran is the clearest example yet. A small state with a fragile economy and a powerful military stepped into a superpower confrontation and got both sides to keep talking.

I’ve written a long piece on what this means for global peace diplomacy. The rise of the “armed peacemaker.” The pros and cons of military‑backed mediation. And how the UN could reinvent itself as a conductor of this new, more chaotic orchestra rather than fading into irrelevance.

[Ali Saleem @alisaleem2004]

Envisioning Resuscitating the UN Secretary‑General’s ‘Good Offices’ https://t.co/VzCQJMNXZQ

[Ali Saleem @alisaleem2004]

Peace processes aren’t derailed by a single headline, they’re tested by them.

The recent leadership tension in the Bangsamoro has drawn sharp attention. But the bigger story in Mindanao isn’t about a split. It’s about whether the carefully built peace architecture, joint implementing panels, joint normalization committee, Independent decommissioning body, transitional justice and reconciliation Commission, ceasefire mechanisms can absorb political pressure and keep delivering.

In my latest piece, I move past the noise and focus on what actually matters:

➡️ The CAB and FAB were possible because the MILF Central Committee spoke as one. That unity remains the foundation, not a single political misalignment.

➡️ The current friction is political, not existential. The Central Committee’s authority and the principle of mandatory consultation (shura) are alive and being tested.

➡️ The two most important actors now: President Marcos, who can activate the government’s side of the peace bodies, and the MILF Central Committee, which must keep the movement anchored to the agreement.

➡️ The new OPAPRU leadership has a rare opportunity to strengthen mechanisms that were designed to withstand exactly this kind of turbulence.

The ceasefire holds. The CAB holds. All personalities remain committed to full implementation of FAB and CAB. The question isn’t whether the peace process will survive a political season, it’s whether the joint bodies will be convened, normalization will be unblocked, and accountability will be made public.

Elections are September. Implementation is every day.

[Ali Saleem @alisaleem2004]

Beyond the Headlines: The Real Story of the Bangsamoro Peace Process in 2026 https://t.co/Ut9oFxucmQ

[Ali Saleem @alisaleem2004]

I’ve been tracking the public discourse around Pakistan’s mediation between the US and Iran – from cautious acceptance, to sceptical scrutiny, to polarised attacks, and now to a credibility crisis sparked by fresh allegations.

Over the past three months, distinct phases have shaped how the world sees this quiet backchannel. Each phase tested the mediator’s trustworthiness. Each phase offers a lesson for anyone who works in conflict resolution.

I wrote a piece on what makes a mediator credible drawing on real life experience and the current Pakistan‑led effort. It’s about preparation, impartiality, discretion, small wins, borrowed weight, and the hardest virtue of all: patience.

The ceasefire is still holding. The parties are still talking. But credibility is hanging by a thread. Check out my new post!

[Ali Saleem @alisaleem2004]

The Fragile Art of Being Trusted https://t.co/rAhp8beKhe

[Ali Saleem @alisaleem2004]

Timing isn’t everything. It’s the only thing.
I’ve been thinking about Ira William Zartman’s “ripeness theory” lately. The idea that conflicts only become solvable when both sides are hurting enough to see that continuing the fight costs more than any victory could bring. Pain as a prerequisite for peace. Not a pleasant thought. But eerily accurate.
The Iran‑US talks, the fragile ceasefire, Pakistan’s quiet mediation – all of it is a live test of whether the moment is ripe or already passing.
I wrote a longer reflection on what Zartman’s framework reveals about where we stand right now. No hot takes or scoops. Just the uncomfortable logic of when and why wars actually end.

#peacemaking #mediation #Iran #US #Zartman #ceasefire #Pakistan #Facilitation

[Ali Saleem @alisaleem2004]

Sometimes Peace Is Only Possible When Both Sides Are Bleeding https://t.co/epUOxXbEqB