Ishtar Gate, Babylon
October 539 BCE
Mood: watchful
My daughter’s fingers tighten around mine as the army passes beneath the blue gate. She tilts her face upward, and my attention follows hers.
Arcadia Planitia, Mars
14 August 2175 CE. 09:10 local solar time
Mood: content
I breathe in the smell of warm bread. She slides my cup closer, still half asleep. I’m in no hurry to start the day.
Most theories of consciousness assume that conscious experience arises from physical processes in spacetime. They have so far failed to explain even one specific experience, or illusion of experience. Perhaps that is because spacetime is not fundamental.
https://t.co/j39DWFVnf0
This reasoning veers a little too much from lack of certainty (which I agree with) to all options are equally likely (which I disagree with). Even though we don’t yet have a consensus theory of consciousness, such theory would only be needed to license certainty. There’s still plenty of evidence that can reasonably adjust credences. We can (and should) still be Good Bayesians. My reading of the evidence means that my credence for AI consciousness is close to (but not exactly) zero. Yours may be different. But lack of certainty per se is not good evidence, or a good reason to equalise credences or posterior beliefs.
In other words, not knowing for sure doesn’t mean not knowing anything.
Messel lake forest
47,102,033 BCE
Mood: curious
The rain slips from the leaves. I stop chewing and lift one; a bright beetle moves beneath it, just beyond my fingers.
Kalaallit Nunaat, near Disko Bay
Late summer, 1707 CE
Mood: content
The fire warms one side of me while the river air cools the other. Sunlight moving across the water is beautiful.
Ithra shore, Sere · UGC 2885
2026 BCE (Earth calendar), local night
Mood: absorbed
Lost in thought about countless possible universes, I no longer notice the cold stone beneath my limb. What might they look like? A wave reaches the rocks.
Berlin
November 1989 CE, late evening
Mood: stunned
The cold bites my ears, but I hardly feel it now. Someone ahead starts laughing, someone behind me is crying.