Robert Holmes a Court

First Australian Billionaire. Smartest person in the room. Owner of Bell Group, WA Woollen,

[Robert Holmes a Court @AllperformersG]

@SantiagoAuFund The more $USD goes down the more #currencies are indebted to the USD

[Robert Holmes a Court @AllperformersG]

@FootyonNine Brad Scott wants out but he is waiting to be paid to leave instead of resigning... Been his plan since about round 3 I reckon hahaha

[Robert Holmes a Court @AllperformersG]

@Stinger22710991 @essendonfc He is a huge part of the start of the downfall. If it were your kids he was outwardly poisoning you would want him in prison.

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

OIL

The last month was the largest cumulative draw of total U.S. petroleum inventories ever.

Gasoline inventories (seasonally adjusted) lowest since 2014.

Distillate inventories lowest since 2003.

Next few weeks is a crucial window for oil fundamentals.

[Robert Holmes a Court @AllperformersG]

@JamesWonX @reserveprotocol Love the artwork

[Aralez 🐕 @0xAralez]

Hey @grok,

is the stock market on the verge of a 2000 dot-com style crash?

[Robert Holmes a Court @AllperformersG]

@Thedrivenman It's dumb to have house, car paid off. Money in this world of cheap money you NEED to leverage every asset to gain more assets.

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Food for thought.

Ignore the Bear Porn

The S&P just tagged 7,500 with bottom‑up targets pointing toward 8,250, and the doomer industrial complex still insists we’re one headline away from financial extinction. They traded a modest 10% pullback like it was the dress rehearsal for 2008, then quietly disappeared when the market delivered one of the fastest V‑shaped recoveries in history and went on to make fresh highs.

The story never changes, only the excuse list does.

In a single quarter, they sold investors a “private credit crisis,” declared software structurally doomed by AI, and promoted a Middle East war narrative built around a catastrophically shut Strait of Hormuz. Reality? Credit bent but didn’t break, software is adapting instead of evaporating, the strait is open, and risk assets shook off the scare far faster than the pundit class could draft their next bearish thread.

The market processed the shock, repriced, and moved on; the doomers simply moved the goalposts.

Meanwhile, fundamentals have the audacity to keep improving. Earnings march higher, and bottom‑up targets now point to an equity market that is not priced for fantasy but for solid, compounding cash flows.

A long‑overdue digital‑asset clarity act is finally on the books, yet much of Wall Street still dismisses Bitcoin as a “scam,” recycling a decade‑old insult because they can’t be bothered to update their priors. It is less analysis than superstition, dressed up in finance jargon.

Layer on geopolitics, and the gap between narrative and reality widens. President Trump and his team gets no credit for brokering de‑escalation and energy‑security arrangements that help keep the global system functioning, even as another terrorist is being taken off the board in Africa in real time.

The same commentators who obsess over tail risks refuse to acknowledge when those tails are actively being managed, hedged, or neutralized. Stability is treated as an accident; instability is always assumed to be permanent.

This is the core tell of the modern doomer: they are never graded on outcomes, only on how scary they sounded at the time. They were wrong on the “collapse” of private credit, wrong on AI instantly vaporizing software economics, wrong on a sustained oil chokehold from Hormuz, and they will be just as wrong if their new fetish is a reflexive 20% crash because of a Warsh taking over the Fed. They do not rethink; they rebrand.

What passes for “prudence” in this crowd is really just performative pessimistic “bear porn” for an audience that confuses anxiety with insight. They sell dread, one crisis costume at a time, while price action and cash flows quietly keep contradicting the script.

The job of serious investors is not to react to the fear merchants; it is to notice that the world is messy, risks are real, and yet, somehow, 7,500 on the S&P is telling you the doom machine is not the one in charge.

S&P 500 Target for 2027 10,000. Ignore the Bear Porn.

Have a nice weekend.

[Robert Holmes a Court @AllperformersG]

@NotA_Bull Both are rubbish

[Robert Holmes a Court @AllperformersG]

@Nick126792 @SantiagoAuFund How didn't Xi look good?

The fact that Trump was there says a lot in itself.

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

Every single midterm year since 1974.
Same pattern.

1974 Ford: −35%
1978 Carter: −15%
1982 Reagan: −17%
1986 Reagan: −10%
1990 Bush: −20%
1994 Clinton: −8%
1998 Clinton: −22%
2002 Bush: −34%
2006 Bush: −8%
2010 Obama: −17%
2014 Obama: −10%
2018 Trump: −20%
2022 Biden: −27%
2026 Trump: ???

Every single one had a significant drawdown.
Every single one recovered.
The long-term chart kept going up.

The question for 2026 is not if it recovers.
The question is whether you will still be invested when it does.

[Robert Holmes a Court @AllperformersG]

@CryptoChihiro I bought some more 💰

[Robert Holmes a Court @AllperformersG]

@JamesWonX No

[Robert Holmes a Court @AllperformersG]

@CryptoPro2008

[Robert Holmes a Court @AllperformersG]

@Wisdom_HQ Believer prayed for the timber

[Robert Holmes a Court @AllperformersG]

$RSR priming the pump #reserverights

[Robert Holmes a Court @AllperformersG]

@markbouris @cjoye Chris has never been so wrong in the US, Iran war and AI. The US is on the verge of total collapse and he reckons it's going gang busters. They are losing economically, militarily and geopolitical.

[Robert Holmes a Court @AllperformersG]

@CryptoChihiro It's rocketing

[The Daily Show @TheDailyShow]

.@jonstewart has seen Trump's Iran negotiating skills before in "The Art of the Deal"

[Robert Holmes a Court @AllperformersG]

@mattytradez Looking good that it's up when majors are down.

[Robert Holmes a Court @AllperformersG]

@7AFL I have mental health issues at the pub every Friday night I guess now?
FFS! Stop the spin guy was toasted, he should have been taking some hangover cures instead of out on the field.
Ridiculous the Coach is just as toasted for not doing anything.