DadBod

"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria."

— Sir John Templeton

[DadBod @alpha_imag8252]

Never debate with people that believe in the perpetuity of trends.

[The Husky @Mr_Husky1]

A 24-year-old Polish tennis player arrived in Paris last week ranked 114th in the world, with no sponsors, no guaranteed income, and no certainty she could even pay for her hotel room.

She had to win three qualifying matches just to enter the French Open main draw. Prize money is only paid at the end of the tournament, so a Polish sports drink brand quietly stepped in and covered her hotel bill.

Her name is Maja Chwalinska. And today, she plays in the French Open final.

Before this tournament, she had won exactly one Grand Slam main draw match in her entire career. She had battled depression so severe that in 2021 she couldn't get out of bed. She underwent knee surgery in 2022. She spent years grinding through small tournaments across Europe just to stay afloat.

Then she arrived in Paris, won three qualifiers, and kept winning. Zheng Qinwen. Elise Mertens. Maria Sakkari. Diana Shnaider. Nine straight matches. One set dropped.

She is now the first qualifier in French Open history to reach the final. The last time a qualifier reached a Grand Slam final, it was Emma Raducanu at the 2021 US Open. Raducanu won.

By simply making the final, Chwalinska has earned more prize money than her entire career combined. The runner-up cheque alone is $1.6 million. If she wins today, she takes home $3.25 million.
One week ago she couldn't pay for her hotel room.

[DadBod @alpha_imag8252]

@distinctalerts @SpoozDon Covered most of my short positions just now.

[OddStats @OddStats]

HOLY. FUCKING. SHIT.

You know those terrifying charts that show how "right now" looks sorta like some scary time in the past? Well, this one is a fucking doozy.

The blue line below is the most recent 67 days. The red line is statistically the single most similar 67 day period in stock market history...early Summer 1929. I shit you fucking not.

And you're thinking..."hey, we still have time until it peaked back then." Sure do. And when does that 1929 peak correspond to 2026?

How about *exactly* July OpEx (7/17/26).

HELP ME, ODDSTATS. I'M SCARED AND I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO.

Panic. That's what. Freak the absolute fuck out and sell everything. Buy as many puts as you can.

Be afraid, be very afraid.
They're heeee-ere.
Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water.
You'll believe an elephant can fly.

But seriously, remember that as scary as this is, 1929 was very different from today. Only men were allowed to trade stocks then. Electricity and the female orgasm hadn't even been invented yet.

We'll probably be fine this time. Maybe.

[DadBod @alpha_imag8252]

$NVDA flagging a sell at the close. @opropriofaka

[DadBod @alpha_imag8252]

It is called "hen's flight".

[DadBod @alpha_imag8252]

@SpoozDon This bounce has short legs. Probably is already done as we speak.

[DadBod @alpha_imag8252]

@AlessioTMAD 50K

[DadBod @alpha_imag8252]

Russell Index vs BTCUSD 2016-2026

[DadBod @alpha_imag8252]

@adamtaggart I usually do 30' of elliptics with a good resistence at the beginning of leg workout. After that, nothing seems bad.

[DadBod @alpha_imag8252]

@adamtaggart @gemoscatelli this guy needs some help.

[FoFty @FoFtyTrader]

my broker just called and told me that this is the best time to go long because new bull markets obviously start at 5-sigma overshoots

[Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) @infraa_]

An equity is just a claim on a firm's future free cash flow discounted at the risk-free rate + a premium for taking equity risk

That premium is now negative
Rates near multi-decade highs

The discount rate destroys present value of future FCF... which is now *shrinking*

[Barchart @Barchart]

Options Traders are the most bullish on the stock market in more than 5 years, after the total put/call ratio plunged to 0.64 on Friday 📈🥳🤑

[Scrooge McDuck @ScroogeCap]

Oppenheimer brings out an interesting point here. If $GOOGL that prints massive FCF is tapping equity markets for $80B it's because credit is drying up. The private credit canary in the coal mine just died. The fact that their raise includes a massive $40B ATM and a $10B private placement to Berkshire Hathaway shows exactly how desperate the hunt for liquidity is becoming.

So who else is very exposed to the credit markets? $ORCL would be the first to come in mind, right? Name has rallied a ton here and suddenly looks like all the financing issues they have are forgotten. Their debt to equity is still over 5x.

$META is relentless in irrational spending. This might force Zucc to reevaluate his options here? Upgraded by Arete today btw.

Who needs to borrow a ton to keep the lights on? $EQIX and $DLR come to mind, 200MW datacenter costs 8 billion, certainly a hefty amount. But the biggest one of them all is none other than $CRWV, that rallied on $DELL yesterday, yet carries $21B of debt, including $8.5B delayed-draw term loan backed by GPUs.

[DadBod @alpha_imag8252]

@opropriofaka https://t.co/rjjMWTWOra

[DadBod @alpha_imag8252]

https://t.co/fWazAm1Pz0 @opropriofaka Ainda resta alguém fazendo essa conta?

[Barchart @Barchart]

Equity Risk Premium (the benefit of owning stocks over treasuries) has fallen to its lowest level in more than 20 years

[DadBod @alpha_imag8252]

@opropriofaka Vi uma entrevista do Ed Dowd no YT que ele coloca cenário semelhante.

[DadBod @alpha_imag8252]

@opropriofaka NBIS mais de 1900% em poucos meses. Gráfico semanal. Como ela, existem várias outras. Dejà vu.

[DadBod @alpha_imag8252]

@igor_mundstock Acredita quem quer.