Alpha Trailblazer

INTP. Just strolling around.

ISLAH 22, HK IBS 22, DFRZ 20.

Interested in (Geo)politics, Economics, & History

ENG, AR, ID

[Alpha Trailblazer @Alpha_Phoenix__]

@sweetfudgebites Masih panjang krn el nino

[Alpha Trailblazer @Alpha_Phoenix__]

@oleanderhime Some people have deleted their social media accs because bad news everyday they opened their smartphones

They want to rise, not on survival mode

[Alpha Trailblazer @Alpha_Phoenix__]

Sebagai disclaimer, saya sendiri tidak anti dengan perkembangan teknologi khususnya AI ini tapi yang seharusnya kita sebagai manusia harus mampu memanfaatkannya dengan bijak agar sesuai dengan tujuan hidup manusia yang telah ditetapkan Tuhan.

[Alpha Trailblazer @Alpha_Phoenix__]

PARADOKS AI

Ketika kita bicara tentang AI, kebanyakan dari kita kemungkinan besar berpikir tentang kemudahan yang kita dapatkan selama ini. Namun seperti hal lainnya, AI juga memiliki sisi gelap yang perlu diperhatikan agar kita bisa menyikapi perkembangannya dengan bijak.

[Alpha Trailblazer @Alpha_Phoenix__]

@oleanderhime Is it poisonous?

Lmao

[Alpha Trailblazer @Alpha_Phoenix__]

Ya Allah semoga bisa sempro skripsi minggu depan.

Amin.....

[Alpha Trailblazer @Alpha_Phoenix__]

@ErtugrulSohib Mau ambil manajemen logistik buat skripsi gk bisa krn dosbingnya cmn visa arahin buat SDM wkwk

[Alpha Trailblazer @Alpha_Phoenix__]

Menpar rezim sekarang yang tiap hari mandi pakai air galon AQUA aja jadi tidak cantik karena pucat pada rapat bersama DPR RI

[Alpha Trailblazer @Alpha_Phoenix__]

Wowonomics:

Sawit at it's finest

[Pink Bourbon @pinkbourbon8898]

They're right for Japan, Korea, and Singapore. Those guys source 75% of refined products from the Persian Gulf. Hormuz closes, they bleed.

But Indonesia is a different story entirely.

Yes, Indonesia imports refined products. Pertamina's refining capacity doesn't fully cover domestic demand, so Pertalite and Solar get bridged through imports. The Hormuz shock hits that. Real exposure.

What makes Indonesia different is this.

Indonesia's actual risk from this isn't supply. It's fiscal. If oil prices spike because Hormuz stays closed, the government's subsidy bill for Pertalite and Solar expands. Wider deficit, rupiah pressure. That's the bear case for Indonesia, and even that's manageable.

The bull case is what nobody is talking about.

Indonesia runs B40 right now. 40% of every liter of diesel consumed domestically is palm oil biodiesel, not petroleum. When oil spikes, the incentive to push toward B50 or B55 gets stronger overnight. Import volume drops. Indonesia self-hedges using its own CPO supply. No other country in Asia has this. Not Korea, not Japan, not Singapore.

Then there's coal.

When Hormuz disrupts LNG and oil flows into Asia, the fastest lever available to power generators in Japan, Korea, and India is gas to coal switching. Indonesia is the world's largest seaborne thermal coal exporter. ADARO, ITMG, PTBA, BUMI don't suffer from this scenario. Export volumes go up. Realized prices go up. Royalty revenue to the government goes up.

Same logic on LNG. Indonesia exports from Bontang and Tangguh. When Middle Eastern supply gets disrupted, the spot premium on non Gulf LNG widens. Indonesian cargoes price up.

Same logic on CPO. High oil equals strong biodiesel demand globally equals strong CPO prices. Indonesia and Malaysia control 85% of global supply.

You see, Indonesia pays more for refined product imports. Fiscal subsidy pressure rises. Rupiah is a watch item. Those are real negatives.

But Indonesia earns more on coal exports, earns more on LNG spot, earns more on CPO, and reduces net petroleum import volume through accelerated biodiesel blending. The terms of trade move in Indonesia's favor, not against it.

The conventional take is "Indonesia is a net oil importer so oil shock is bad." The correct take is Indonesia is a net energy exporter in the commodities that directly substitute for disrupted Persian Gulf supply. A sustained Hormuz closure improves Indonesia's aggregate energy trade position, not deteriorates it.

Happy Sunday and Happy Easter.

[Alpha Trailblazer @Alpha_Phoenix__]

@ErtugrulSohib Bicara patriarkisme pak

[Alpha Trailblazer @Alpha_Phoenix__]

@TraseerNew Nah iya

Kan jadinya asumsi/prasangka doang

Lagipula klo memang kejadiannya bener spt itu, gk baik juga sebar aib personal kecuali yg efeknya merugikan org banyak spt pencurian, pemerkosaan, dsb

[Alpha Trailblazer @Alpha_Phoenix__]

Pose jari tengah juga gk boleh tapi merekan tanpa izin lebih berat masalahnya

[Wakil Kepala Program Maling Berkedok Gizi @ImamBesar212]

Istri lagi videoin nganter suami kerja, tetiba diberikan salam jari tengah oleh orang tidak dikenal.

Uthi kayanya lagi punya beban hidup yang berat sekali 😂

[Alpha Trailblazer @Alpha_Phoenix__]

@tamathoughtss Izin dulu sama bos wkwk

[Alpha Trailblazer @Alpha_Phoenix__]

Indo bagaimana?

Gk usah dipikirin. 2-3 bln kedepan harga makin naik maka jgn harap bisa tenang rezim skrg

[Alpha Trailblazer @Alpha_Phoenix__]

Iran jgn goblok nyerang seluruh negara teluk

Negara-negara teluk jgn goblok krn diam saja melihat kelakuan Israel

[Alpha Trailblazer @Alpha_Phoenix__]

@PerkasaHabsyah Bukan malas, tapi duitnya gk ada hhh

[Alpha Trailblazer @Alpha_Phoenix__]

Cerai

Cari yang fresh dan jujur

[YAPPINGFESS @yappingfess]

🩷 TW

Hi, saya 30L, married, satu bulan lalu aku naik jabatan dengan gaji 45jt sebulan tapi ternyata istriku baru jujur ternyata dia terjerat pinj0l sebanyak 300 juta lebih. aku gamau bantu sama sekali karena tidak tau awalnya gimana? salahkah aku? apa pantas aku ajukan pisah?

[Alpha Trailblazer @Alpha_Phoenix__]

@txtfrombrand Tip utk pengenudi sbnrnya diembat aplikator juga