Alix Alpha

🌍

🚓🤿🪖🇫🇷🇪🇺

[Radu Hossu 🇹🇩🇺🇦 @RaduHossu]

Taking the ceasefire at face value, I’ll give a brief overview of what happened during these 40 days of war and how Trump won—and won so big it blew all of us away:

- The war isn’t over. A ceasefire doesn’t mean peace;

- Ayatollah Khamenei has been eliminated, along with a few dozen other leaders of the Revolutionary Guards—the Islamic Revolution’s terrorist group. All of them are despicable criminals. No one is mourning them or feeling sorry for them;

- Iran now controls the Strait of Hormuz. It did not before February 28 (when the war began). It used this leverage in negotiations with Trump and secured acceptance of their 10-point plan (you will see these terms are very favorable to Iran) to be the basis of 2 weeks negociations;

- The U.S. has used between 10 and 55% (depending on the weaponry) of its stockpiles of stand-off munitions, which are essential for deterring China, and (it is estimated) even more of the interceptor missiles that are exceptionally important for protecting civilians in Ukraine. China is laughing;

- Russia benefits from the lifting of sanctions on oil transported by sea. Putin is more than happy;

- Iran benefits from the lifting of sanctions on its oil transported by sea. The regime’s new leaders are delighted;

- The theocratic regime of the Islamic Revolution has NOT been changed. In fact, the terrorist, criminal leaders who were removed have been replaced by others whom experts there tell us are even more radical (if that’s even possible) and even tougher and crueler;

- The Iranian people are not free. Right? I want us to focus on this fact. The Iranian people, who should have been placed at the center of this conflict as the top priority, have been abandoned. Moreover, they feel betrayed by Trump;

- The crisis caused by this war, which, as you can see from the points above, has brought no significant benefits, will be felt for many months to come, most likely throughout the year—and here I am referring to the IT industry, agriculture, and the energy sector.

China is the long-term winner in the energy sector because it will weather this shock, because it is investing heavily in green energy, and because the IT industries in South Korea and Taiwan will be hit by the helium crisis, which gives them time to further narrow the technological gap with the West. Europe is the big loser due to its energy dependencies and the stalling of green energy investment programs in recent years.

- The 400-odd kilograms of enriched uranium are exactly where they were before the war began;

- NATO is going through the biggest internal crisis in its history due to the start of this war and Trump’s insults and threats. It’s also facing a crisis of confidence in its very essence, Article 5, which I don’t see how it will overcome in the near future, if ever;

- The economies of the Gulf states have been disrupted and—in part—damaged over the medium and long term;

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Don’t you feel like winners? Especially when we’re pumping 2 euro+/litre worth of diesel into the tank and we’ll see the fall announcements with inflation at 12–14% or who knows how much.

If this is a Trump victory, I don’t want to know what a defeat looks like. If you’ve made it this far, I don’t want to let you forget that the war isn’t over yet.

[Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin]

Ok. Deep breath. If you read this closely, you can see he's given himself a huge exit. He says there's already been complete regime change, which, he says, means great things can happen. Basically, he's set it up so that he can describe any deal a great one and pretend "mission accomplished."

[Forces Spéciales Françaises 🌟 @Fs_francaises_]

L'adjudant-chef Arnaud Frion avait participé au sauvetage et à l'évacuation des forces spéciales américaines tombées dans l'embuscade meurtrière de Tongo Tongo, permettant ainsi de sauver des vies sous le feu ennemi.

Vous avez entendu son nom hier pour la première fois.

Pourtant, c'est un héros depuis longtemps, comme tant de militaires qui risquent leur vie chaque jour dans l'ombre.

[BFM @BFMTV]

Soldat français tué en Irak: "L'adjudant-chef Frion, c'est ce que l'armée de Terre et les chasseurs alpins produisent de mieux en termes de soldat", affirme le chef de corps du 7e bataillon de chasseurs alpins

[Tom Antonov @Tom_Antonov]

The French soldier ADC Arnaud Frion killed last night in Iraq in a drone attack, had participated in the rescue and evacuation of U.S. special forces who had fallen into a deadly ambush in Tongo Tongo, Niger, in 2017 (4 KIA, 2 WIA). 🇫🇷🇺🇸

[Alix Alpha @AlphaAlix]

@MerbahRachid @restitutorII C’est où l’Algérie ?

[Restitutor Orientis 🇱🇮 @restitutorII]

🇫🇷
France: Le groupe français Thales a présenté « SkyDefender », un dôme intégré de défense aérienne et antimissile qui combine les capacités existantes et intègre l’IA dans son fonctionnement.

Selon l’entreprise, il s’agit d’un dôme de défense multicouche capable de contrer toutes sortes de menaces terrestres, maritimes et spatiales.

SkyDefender rassemble sous une seule plateforme : le système « ForceShield » pour les menaces à courte portée comme les drones, le « SAMP-T NG » pour la défense à moyenne portée, et le radar « SMART-L Multi-Mission », capable de détecter des menaces à longue portée jusqu’à 5 000 km.

[Alix Alpha @AlphaAlix]

@JphTanguy Ahhh mon dieu. Le RN qui va gérer la France.
Dans le monde actuel avec une bande de QI d’huître qui ne tiendrons pas 2min contre des trump ou Vlad 🙄

[𝐆𝐞𝐨𝐓𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬 @GeoTales_]

France 🇨🇵

🔸La Marine Nationale au rendez-vous avec les bâtiments alliés italiens, hollandais et espagnols.

19 des 23 + importants navires de surface de notre flotte sont sur le pont.

Le message est planétaire.

Notre pays assure quand il s'investit.

Fier 🇨🇵

[Cap-Hornier 🌊⚓️ @CapHornier_]

Quasiment toute la flotte est en mer : 19 des 23 principaux bâtiments de la flotte de surface.
Le CdG, 3 PHA, 13 frégates et 2 ravitailleurs.
Les seuls bâtiments de la Marine nationale dans les bases navales sont ceux en arrêt technique. 2 FREMM, une FLF, et un ravitailleur

[Alix Alpha @AlphaAlix]

@yellowandy @ladyjaujau We can go to school in Europe without the fear of being killed by sole crazy gunman

[Elisa Mosini 🇪🇺🇮🇹 @MosiniElisa]

I’m reaching a level of veneration for the French.
This is what European solidarity truly means.
The French could have stayed in their own yards, but instead, they are genuinely trying to give hope and protection to an entire continent.
And I swear, this is unforgettable for me.

[Alix Alpha @AlphaAlix]

@warsignalua @WarMonitor3 🇪🇸🫶🏼🙏🏼

[French defense attaché in SWEDEN @FRDefenceSweden]

Stort tack.

🇸🇪🇫🇷 The welcoming, the securing and the mingling around the French aircraft carrier « Charles de Gaulle » were so professional and so effective that a long list is necessary.

[Alix Alpha @AlphaAlix]

@JphTanguy Et dire que c’est cette bande de blaireaux trumpiste et poutinien qui vont sûrement gouverner la France ….
Mon dieu

[Darya Dolzikova @DDolzikova]

🇫🇷 I underestimated the French.

Macron's nuclear speech includes a number of significant changes to French nuclear policy, some of which I had raised as a possibility in a recent paper on nuclear deterrence in Europe but judged to likely be too forward leaning. I was wrong.

1/

[Michael Glynn @realmikeglynn]

If you're going to use their carrier as a way to dunk on the French, I don't think you could come up with a less effective method.

France is in a small club, one of only three nations to have a catapult and barrier arrested (i.e., CATOBAR) carrier. Here's why it matters. ⬇️

First, the FS Charles de Gaulle (R91) is nuclear powered. There's only 12 nuclear carriers in the world, 11 operated by the U.S., one by the French, and some under construction by China. A nuclear powered carrier is a massive advantage compared to conventional power. Fast and nearly unlimited range - more importantly, all the space that could be taken up by the carrier's fuel is given over to more jet fuel and munitions.

Second, a CATOBAR carrier has two major advantages from short takeoff barrier arrested landing (STOBAR) "ski-jump" carriers operated by the Chinese and Indian navies. First, catapults allow you to launch airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft like the E-2 Hawkeye. An AWE&C platform provides massive advantage in command, control, air warfare, self-defense, and overall effectiveness. Second, the combo of the catapult and wires allow strike fighters to carry meaningful payload beyond light air defense load-outs. It's the difference between an anti-air focused role like the Soviet/Russian Kuznetsov class vs. a true strike capability.

Third, the French enjoy a very close and collaborative relationship with the U.S. Navy. French carrier aviators are trained by the U.S. at Naval Air Station Meridian, MS and the collaboration extends so far that French jets have carrier qualified and operated aboard U.S. carriers. In 2018 while the Charles de Gaulle was in planned maintenance, French Rafale crews embarked onboard the USS George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) along with CVW-8 to conduct training and maintain proficiency while their carrier was unavailable. It's difficult to understate how beneficial the close tie-in with U.S. carrier aviation is.

Fourth, the French Air Wing maintains access to a unique capability today, a carrier-based nuclear weapon. The Rafale carries the ASMPA supersonic, nuclear cruise missile. Notably, the French recently exercise the capability, using a French Navy Rafale from Landivisiau Naval Air Base in Brittany.

At the end of the day, the de Gaulle and the French Air Wing are impressive capabilities. If one is using them as the butt of a joke, it's more indicative of one's lack of awareness than it is anything else. Freedom fries jokes lost their cache around 20 years ago. The de Gaulle and its Air Wing are a niche but impressive capability.

[Gray Connolly @GrayConnolly]

Served with the French in two different AOs - very capable and very reliable allies. Not sure what Erick was up to - no doubt doing the hard yards as a blogger or fetcher of lattes.

[Cthulhu President @Cthulhu4Prez]

The resurgence of “cheese eating surrender monkeys“ jokes is clearly a sign the filthy Americans still have not coped with their withdrawal from Afghanistan.

[Gabriel Stargardter @gabstargardter]

Charles Kushner shows no interest in learning French, pays little heed to the strict codes of Parisian bureaucracy and causes consternation in the nation that shaped modern diplomacy. My story on Trump's ambo to Paris: https://t.co/iAc1cl7P0W