$HOOD and $MOH were removed because their relative TRIX rankings fell outside the top 10—not because of a discretionary view on either company.
MOH actually rebounded today, but the rebalance used Friday’s signal. The model does not rewrite its decision after seeing Monday’s move.
One rebalance is far too early to judge the strategy’s effectiveness. For now, the signal is operating as designed: adjusting exposure as relative momentum changes across the S&P 500.
What likely supported the new entries?
$PYPL: Recent price acceleration followed reports of a $53B acquisition offer from Stripe and Advent, with continued uncertainty over whether the offer may be raised.
$VLO: The stock entered after a multi-day advance to a new 52-week high, supported by strong refining margins and constrained global fuel supply.
The portfolio did not buy these headlines directly. They likely contributed to the sustained price trends captured by Friday’s TRIX ranking.
Did the TRIX signal fail? Not based on one day.
TRIX is intentionally slow. It is designed to capture sustained trends rather than react to every short-term price move or unexpected headline.
Today’s company-specific and regulatory moves are exactly the kind of events a price-based momentum signal is not designed to anticipate. One trading day remains within the normal short-term variation of the portfolio.
We’ll continue monitoring whether these moves fade or become persistent enough to affect the TRIX rankings at the next rebalance.
TRIX-12 public test — Day 1
Portfolio: −1.18%
SPY: −0.54%
Relative performance: −0.63pp
Top gainers
$GPC +3.85%
$AJG +3.29%
Neither had a clear company-specific headline today. GPC’s move appeared to be part of a broader auto-parts rebound, while AJG rose alongside other insurance brokers.
Top detractors
$HOOD −8.24%
$MRNA −7.51%
$MOH −3.66%
HOOD fell with other crypto-linked stocks as uncertainty around the Clarity Act pressured the sector.
MRNA remained under pressure after Sanofi filed a new mRNA patent lawsuit.
MOH was caught in continued managed-care volatility following concerns around Medicaid membership and medical costs.
We’ll update the portfolio after every market close and share:
• Daily return vs. $SPY
• Top contributors and detractors
• Likely catalysts behind major moves
• Whether the moves confirmed or challenged the TRIX signal
The rules are fixed.
Most momentum signals react to every market wiggle.
TRIX is built to filter out the noise.
Today, we’re launching our first public Alpha Builders strategy: a TRIX-12 momentum portfolio.
Equal-weighted holdings:
$DD · $MRNA · $AXON · $TECH · $CRL
$HOOD · $PANW · $GPC · $MOH · $AJG
Signal: Jul 14 close
Entry: Jul 15 close
Next rebalance: Jul 20
Benchmark: $SPY
Simulated strategy. Fees included.
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