I remember half of CT did say Altseason and market top in Q1 or even January.
Is this "Altseason" in this room now?
I am still thinking we will top in Q3/Q4, more pain and slow sideways grind until then probably.
Difficult question.
-China starts printing to grow their economy -> People go into risk assets.
-US starts to build a Bitcoin reserve -> other countries follow.
- Retail will rotate out of BTC due to large countries buying creating a flow into altcoins.
- A lot of people will get rekt again.
April Analysis Revisited ๐
Back in April, I shared my halving analysis and outlook for the current cycle in a closed group. Letโs dive back into those insights and see how things have evolved. ๐
BTC Dominance Trends ๐
Last cycle saw BTC dominance peak at the end of the halving year, similar to today.
Key insight: BTC dominance is decreasing each cycle as crypto matures. Currently, BTC dominance is 60%, lower than 71% in 2020.
#Bitcoin #CryptoMaturity
Top 20 Stability vs. Now ๐
During the last bear market up to the halving, the top 20 was stable with no new launches penetrating the top 20. Today, itโs different โ $SUI has joined the top 20 as the only new entrant at halving time 2024!
#Altcoins #MarketTrends
Fewer New Coins in Top 100 ๐
Comparing the top 100 at halving time for coins launched in the corresponding cycle:
2020 Halving: 41 new coins
2024 Halving: Only 25 new coins
Many new 2024 coins launched at high valuations and are heavily VC-backed. Only a handful achieved top 100 through natural growth.
#CryptoAnalysis #Top100
Market Shifts Post-Halving ๐
Around halving time, the market looked promisingโaltcoins soared since Oct 2023, outpacing $BTC. Now, $BTC hit a new #ATH, but many altcoins are struggling. Poor risk management left many burned. #BitcoinATH #AltcoinPerformance
Holding BTC vs. Altcoins ๐ก
My advice for newcomers: Holding $BTC is the safest way to profit (Best to buy during bear market). While profits may be smaller, the likelihood of outperforming 90% of the market is high if you sell near the top.
Best & Worst Performers ๐ฅโ๏ธ
From July 2023 to April 2024:
Best: $BONK $AIOZ $BEAM $FET $ORDI
Worst: $XLM $XMR $XRP $LTC $QNT
Worst performers are often cult coins pushed by influencers. Donโt fall for the hype!
Top 100 Dynamics ๐
New entries like $PENDLE $FLOKI $RUNE and many more entered the top 100 between July 2023 and April 2024.
Those exiting the top 100 were mostly older coins:
3 pre-2017
20 from 2018-2021
1 post-2022
#Top100 #CryptoMarket
My past Expectations for 2024 during the halving time๐ฎ
We had a bearish late 2022 โก๏ธ Slow uptrend in 2023
We saw a significant correction around the 2024 halving to reset market sentiment, paving the way for gains later in 2024 after the election.
#MarketForecast #BitcoinHalving
Best vs. Worst Performers Insight ๐๐
Analyzing top 100:
Best Performers: Mostly from current cycle
Worst Performers: Predominantly older coins
Old coins remain in the top 20 due to liquidity and community support. New coins will find it increasingly tough to break into the top tier.
#CryptoInsights #MarketTrends
Overall Market Pace ๐โโ๏ธ
Expected a sideways trend until the election โ true for Bitcoin. However, altcoins faced significant downturns. The pace of this cycle differs from the last one! #CryptoCycle
Stay Tuned for More Analysis ๐
Iโll be releasing a comprehensive analysis of the top 100 (and beyond) at year-end over multiple tweets. A lot has changed in this fast moving market, i expect very exciting results!
Follow me to catch crucial insights that could protect your gains this cycle.
Donโt become a bagholder! ๐ซ๐
#CryptoAnalysis
People still donโt realize what this election outcome truly meansโitโs unbelievable!
Why am I hearing people say that the #Bullrun2025 will end in just 4 months?
Next year is set to be incredibly bullish, thanks to the clear victory of @realDonaldTrump!
The U.S. stance on crypto will shift to pro-crypto, and DeFi adoption will accelerate. Weโre not only seeing ETFs gaining traction, but thereโs also a proposal to build a Bitcoin reserve.
And @Polymarket proved its caseโit wasnโt mispriced, as many had thought.
This is just the beginning!