AlphaLab.io

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@Ilhan hearing rumors that trumps going to turn your denaturalization and deportation into an October surprise, have fun we'll all enjoy the show

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@GavinNewsom I would say that this is really the only response that could be gayer than trump renaming it super intelligence in the first place. this is ridiculously pathetic looking

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@Whos_Ur_Doggy @JamesMcPherson are you using these models raw or are you doing fine tuning for your specific workflows based on collected traces from frontier level intelligence?

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@sneaknsneak ? They are raising rates, thus increasing our total debt repayments, which forces us to print more dollars, which increases inflation. What is confusing? Higher rates result in increased fiscal spending, which means further devaluation of currency.

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@KeeveStallings @jonbrooks the thing is that that 4600 yields an investment whereas the 3400 is an expense you dont get back. It's not a simple dynamic to game out.

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@StevieGhandiz https://t.co/nC5HOF1Czu

[Christian Heiens 🏛 @ChristianHeiens]

I genuinely do not understand why anyone would take the job of Secretary of the Treasury or Chairman of the Federal Reserve at this point.

And I don't mean that as some cheap shot about the people currently occupying those positions. I mean I genuinely do not understand what you are supposed to do if you inherit the fiscal and monetary disaster that America is gradually slipping into.

When Volcker raised rates in the 80s, that strengthened the dollar, which killed foreign economies in Latin America that were heavily indebted in dollars. And he was able to get away with it because the Fed was essentially sucking demand out of the market by destroying the economies that had become overindebted in our currency.

In a way, Mexico essentially paid for us to solve our inflation crisis because Mexicans chose to take on debt in a currency they had no control over.

At the time, this wasn't an issue at home because our debt to GDP was something like 31%. So even though we blew out interest expense, there was so little of it that it didn't really matter. Instead, the slowdown in bank lending had a much bigger effect than the increase in new debt.

Now fast forward to today and bank lending isn't what's driving inflation at all. What's driving it are these huge untouchable Federal deficits that are going almost entirely to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. And these things are either fully or partially indexed to inflation.

So when the Fed looks around and says "We have high inflation and we need to increase interest rates," they can certainly crush huge swaths of the economy and plunge the rest of the world into an economic crisis like the one that befell Latin America in the 80s, but when you have over 100% debt to GDP, you blow out the deficit interest expense by an even bigger amount than whatever you're able to squeeze out of the private sector.

And every time they increase interest rates, the Boomers who are already cash rich essentially get a state-mandated raise in addition to a larger Social Security check, which is precisely the thing driving the deficits in the first place!

So over time, more and more and more money gets sucked up by those who draw the largest checks from the Federal budget. And they take that money and go out and spend more, which ends up defeating the whole purpose of trying to quell inflation with interest rate hikes in the first place.

Meanwhile, working Americans and entire sovereign nations like Japan undergo essentially a depressionary event as they get crushed first by high rates and then by inflation.

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@EranAzoulay @bluevezreh @Cbluuu avoid letting the evil seep into your mind and just enjoy the blessings that are today. There is evil out there. Become content with knowing it exists and working hard to defeat it, but dont allow yourself to let that energy in. we have to focus on the good.

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@Kush__Patil the only people buying houses are buying them 100% cash thus avoiding the high rates entirely.

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@The_Real_Fly Jerome Powell signed the Death Warrant for America when he stridently hiked rates starting in 2021. He ensured that high rates would cause this hyper inflationary fiscal debt death spiral. Everyone believed the dogma of "hiking rates lowers inflation" and fucking raped us

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@joeshortsqueeze did you at all read the post I shared above because you can think im a retard all you want but the basic mathematical principles are laid out clear as day for you so long as you literally have anything above a 6th grade education. Good luck out there

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@joeshortsqueeze joey im just sayin youre gonna get fucked if you think that rules from the last 50 years are going to hold true into the future and im encouraging you to literally just spend 5 min with a calculator doing some trivial math to understand why youre lost. I got nothin for ya bud

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@Harsher_Reality @StygiannFate @TheHoff21milly mathematically we literally just cant afford anything above 3% without inducing a hyper inflationary fiscal debt death spiral. rates above that will induce hyper inflation due to the need to print dollars to pay existing debt.

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@Harsher_Reality @StygiannFate @TheHoff21milly im sorry im confused I think. They wont be what? Higher? Or below 3%?

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@jonbrooks this is predicated on the idea you dont literally end up renting forever waiting for home prices to fall, that dont fall. additionally, money spent on rent is unavailable for future acquisitions of property. Its a complex mutlidimensional puzzle, and theres no simple answer.

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@Harsher_Reality @StygiannFate @TheHoff21milly Or if rates are this high you will see America truly look like nazis and engage in the most horrific militaristic brutality in the history of the world in an effort to plunder resources necessary to manage this situation. I dont want to even go there... but those are the options.

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@Harsher_Reality @StygiannFate @TheHoff21milly wait... it seemed you agreed with me and then say 15% rates? Huh??? Literally mechanically impossible. Rates MUST be below 3% within 5 years or it is literally the death of America, and I have faith our leaders understand this and wont allow for the literal death of our country.

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@joeshortsqueeze please, seriously please. just try modeling how you envision your predicted trajectory of rates goes and tell me how you envision us being able to afford anything above maybe 3% rates without literally forcing the end of the nation. You wont be able to. Ask me how I know

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@joeshortsqueeze my sweet summer child you have no idea what world you live in anymore. I understand the confusion, but im far more aware of how things work than you are, quite clearly. You trust dogmatism that has been proven wrong. You will wake up one day. Im sorry for you.

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@Geiger_Capital we need to be aggressively cutting back towards 0. It's insane that we have allowed rates to get this high since 2021. Jerome Powell is responsible for the death of America. He cursed us to a fiscal debt hyper inflationary debt spiral. Unbelievably evil man that gets away with it

[AlphaLab.io @AlphalabScripts]

@farzyness this will only happen if we cut rates and kill the dogmatism that high rates defeat inflation. We are in fiscal debt inflationary death spiral. By keeping rates high we force interest rates higher due to increased need to print new dollars to pay existing debt. Nightmare.