Alphaline Research

Independent research. BTC · ETH. Macro overlay, data-driven analysis.

| Not investment advice.

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

$ETH is securing $164 billion in stablecoins. Its market cap is $239 billion.

Those two lines rarely diverge this much. 🧵1/

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

@GoingDeepOG @CalebFranzen STRC adds risk in a bear market, particularly if P/NAV for MSTR drops below 1. But so far it's mostly held a premium to NAV and STRC has typically bounced back from a discount to near par

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

@CalebFranzen Issuing shares in trad equities can erode trust, but for MSTR it's a known mechanism to buy more BTC. Take a look at the share count over time, investors are aware of it, and when p is > NAV (since early this yr), it's accretive. Selling $1 BTC (MSTR) for $1.3 still makes sense

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

@TrustlessState @RyanSAdams If billions are stored on the ethereum network, that should be a driver of $ETH

At the most extreme ends, let's say ETH's market cap is only $2B but it stores $200B in assets, that poses a security issue. Hence why ETH has largely kept up with assets on the network

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

@amitisinvesting Rotation into high-growth software, fintech names. The signal for $BTC and crypto right now lies in the crypto equities strength (COIN, HOOD, MSTR/BTC, BMNR/ETH, CRCL).

I think spot crypto is next

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

Once again, watch the crypto equities, not the spot cryptos

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

A few clues for where $BTC could be heading based on the relative underperformance today

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

A few clues for where $BTC could be heading based on the relative underperformance today

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

@MacroCRG A few signals/clues: COIN, CRCL, BMNR/ETH, MSTR/BTC, HOOD, all wildly positive today..

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

@MacroCRG A few signals/clues: COIN, CRCL, BMNR/ETH, MSTR/BTC, HOOD, all wildly positive today..

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

@leolanza Thank you - this is exactly the model that I have built for $ETH.

As the total value of stablecoins (and also RWA and DeFi) on ethereum rises, so too should its market cap to protect against an attack on the network.

The model has an 86% correlation

https://t.co/QO10Aok9QD

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

Built a regression model: stablecoin TVL as primary input. R² of 0.86.

Model price: $3,286. Spot: $1,993. Z-score: -1.14.
Last time it was this negative for a sustained stretch: late 2022.

Fundamentals are making higher lows. Price hasn't caught up.
6/

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

@AdrianoFeria I couldn't agree more. The one-year RSI is in historically depressed levels, which represented good long-term buying opportunities.

Meanwhile, RWA and stablecoins are up and to the right. Many ETH bulls capitulated at the blue dots

https://t.co/HqdV8mwijx

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

Not only is RWA and stablecoins on $ETH trending up and to the right, but the one-year RSI is at a level that has historically demonstrated attractive forward returns on average

I am sure many have capitulated on $ETH in the 'blue' zones before

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

Live charts are updated daily here:
https://t.co/7vpXD5Q0Aw

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

Not only is RWA and stablecoins on $ETH trending up and to the right, but the one-year RSI is at a level that has historically demonstrated attractive forward returns on average

I am sure many have capitulated on $ETH in the 'blue' zones before

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

While the one-year RSI is signaling an oversold signal, total RWA and stablecoins on $ETH is 👆

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

@TheShortBear Exactly. The old model was valuing ETH based on revenues, the new model should be based on the total value locked onchain.

I built a model valuing ETH based on total stablecoins locked onchain

https://t.co/vwjSZDb0GT

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

$ETH is securing $164 billion in stablecoins. Its market cap is $239 billion.

Those two lines rarely diverge this much. 🧵1/

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

@RTJ160270 @grassosteve The model shows the correlation of ETH price to the value of stablecoins held onchain over the past several years

I believe total value locked on eth should act as a driver of value, especially as value locked nears the market cap of ETH, the potential for a 51% attack increases

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

@BMNRTracker Price. Valuing $ETH based on the stablecoins value onchain suggests a higher valuation for ether. The historical model correlation is quite high at 86%

https://t.co/Nub62vCWXD

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

Built a regression model: stablecoin TVL as primary input. R² of 0.86.

Model price: $3,286. Spot: $1,993. Z-score: -1.14.
Last time it was this negative for a sustained stretch: late 2022.

Fundamentals are making higher lows. Price hasn't caught up.
6/

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

@RTJ160270 @grassosteve I built a valuation model based on the value of stablecoins and it has a historical correlation of 86%.

In another post I went further and valued ETH using RWA, stablecoins, and DeFi TVL and the correlation is just over 90%

https://t.co/vwjSZDb0GT

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

$ETH is securing $164 billion in stablecoins. Its market cap is $239 billion.

Those two lines rarely diverge this much. 🧵1/

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

@grassosteve I breakdown my thesis and valuation model for $ETH based on the total value of stablecoins on Ethereum here:

https://t.co/vwjSZDb0GT

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

$ETH is securing $164 billion in stablecoins. Its market cap is $239 billion.

Those two lines rarely diverge this much. 🧵1/

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

@nextalphaa @FigoETH Precisely
https://t.co/lOzXBQqTsh

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

CT sees the general lackluster performance of DeFi and the lack of asset growth on #Ethereum (DeFi TVL is the gray area)

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

@Sykodelic_ CT has latched onto DeFi growth and transaction fees as the driver for $ETH, but institutions are seeing a different side to the story (stablecoins and tokenization).

https://t.co/r8rOxp6u2O

[Alphaline Research @AlphalineHQ]

I think the collective CT angst towards $ETH can be summed up in one graph, while the slow, but growing optimism from institutions is seen from a different angle

A 🧵of two images: