alphλmetrico

Applied science for football markets. We don't predict matches. We measure mispricings, market by market.

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

Built to disagree with the market… On purpose.

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

@ReguloFranco12 Every day at midnight.

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

The World Cup doesn't care about your opinion.
Neither does the market.
The only thing that matters: is the price right or wrong.
We measure that.

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

@AncezDe0x The tool works like a radar to find miss priced markets not predictions or crystal ball 🔮

These were the markets flagged by our system for that match

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

Ivory Coast 🇨🇮 vs Ecuador, 🇪🇨 in one grid.

Almost the entire distribution sits in the bottom two rows, Ivory Coast scoring once or not at all in ~90% of outcomes. Ecuador finishes on top far more often than the favorite tag suggests.

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

@prophet_notes @cryptobasenji Our models usually score <0.18 RPS that’s our main metric to calibrate. We will release new features soon to verify track record.

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

The system flagged two things here: the Unders and BTTS No. Both landed

It also leaned Ecuador on the result. That one didn’t, Ecuador lost.

And that’s exactly the point. The system isn’t a crystal ball for the final score. It’s a radar for mispriced markets, and it usually finds more than one.

The side read and the totals read are different bets.

We don’t predict outcomes. We find where the price is wrong, market by market.

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

Ivory Coast 🇨🇮 vs Ecuador, 🇪🇨 in one grid.

Almost the entire distribution sits in the bottom two rows, Ivory Coast scoring once or not at all in ~90% of outcomes. Ecuador finishes on top far more often than the favorite tag suggests.

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

@julianccg Any specific error message?

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

Gray ⬜️ = the base model.
Orange 🟧 = after the factors adjustments.

Ivory Coast: 0.66 → 0.47. Pushed down.

Ecuador: 0.91 → 1.29. Pushed up.

Even before conditions, the model had Ecuador ahead.

Two low numbers, ~1.8 combined. The scoreline grid up top? It falls straight out of these

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

@julianccg What’s your issue?

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

@Robertojosebabi @cryptobasenji You can create an account for free and verify for yourself

https://t.co/scLe6vW8BD

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

Climate adaptation is one of the main factors, favoring Ecuador

[Basenji @cryptobasenji]

This was the @alphametrico Scoreline Matrix for Germany 🇩🇪 Curaçao 🇨🇼

Match ended 7-1

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

He knows something 🤭

[Basenji @cryptobasenji]

And the single most likely scoreline? Netherlands 1–1 Japan. Not a comfortable home win, a coin-flip grind.

I’m not calling Japan to win. I’m saying the market has them priced as a write-off, and they’re not.

[SnoopyAndWoodie @Anklebiters0904]

Let's go, Japan! 🇯🇵

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

The mispricings were always there. You just never had the tool to spot them this easily.

[Basenji @cryptobasenji]

🏆⚽️ The market had Netherlands cruising past Japan. @alphametrico system disagrees.🐾

Japan was one of the most underpriced sides pre-match, every handicap line was lit up

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

@dscervantes What you just read.
Match outcome probabilities, xG, scoreline matrix, score timeline, team ratings — all in one place, before kickoff.
That's an Alpha Read. Full one at https://t.co/scLe6vW8BD

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

In 2022, Japan beat Germany and Spain in the same group.
The market underpriced them then.
We check if it's doing it again today

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

@0rion_______ Full breakdown in the thread above. Netherlands closer than the market says 👆

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

Full read available at https://t.co/scLe6vW8BD
Every market. Fair odds. EV. Score.
This is what applied science looks like before kickoff.

[alphλmetrico @alphametrico]

91% probability at least one goal by minute 90.
Both teams score in 50.9% of comparable matches.
The goals are coming. The question is whose