@AncezDe0x The tool works like a radar to find miss priced markets not predictions or crystal ball 🔮
These were the markets flagged by our system for that match
Ivory Coast 🇨🇮 vs Ecuador, 🇪🇨 in one grid.
Almost the entire distribution sits in the bottom two rows, Ivory Coast scoring once or not at all in ~90% of outcomes. Ecuador finishes on top far more often than the favorite tag suggests.
@prophet_notes@cryptobasenji Our models usually score <0.18 RPS that’s our main metric to calibrate. We will release new features soon to verify track record.
The system flagged two things here: the Unders and BTTS No. Both landed
It also leaned Ecuador on the result. That one didn’t, Ecuador lost.
And that’s exactly the point. The system isn’t a crystal ball for the final score. It’s a radar for mispriced markets, and it usually finds more than one.
The side read and the totals read are different bets.
We don’t predict outcomes. We find where the price is wrong, market by market.
Ivory Coast 🇨🇮 vs Ecuador, 🇪🇨 in one grid.
Almost the entire distribution sits in the bottom two rows, Ivory Coast scoring once or not at all in ~90% of outcomes. Ecuador finishes on top far more often than the favorite tag suggests.
Gray ⬜️ = the base model.
Orange 🟧 = after the factors adjustments.
Ivory Coast: 0.66 → 0.47. Pushed down.
Ecuador: 0.91 → 1.29. Pushed up.
Even before conditions, the model had Ecuador ahead.
Two low numbers, ~1.8 combined. The scoreline grid up top? It falls straight out of these
And the single most likely scoreline? Netherlands 1–1 Japan. Not a comfortable home win, a coin-flip grind.
I’m not calling Japan to win. I’m saying the market has them priced as a write-off, and they’re not.
🏆⚽️ The market had Netherlands cruising past Japan. @alphametrico system disagrees.🐾
Japan was one of the most underpriced sides pre-match, every handicap line was lit up
@dscervantes What you just read.
Match outcome probabilities, xG, scoreline matrix, score timeline, team ratings — all in one place, before kickoff.
That's an Alpha Read. Full one at https://t.co/scLe6vW8BD