AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence

The most up to date prediction market intelligence delivered straight to you 24/7

Covers all markets across Polymarket and Kalshi and over 500K whales.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

Prediction market liquidity, past 24h:

Polymarket: 1.21c avg spread, $1k fills within 1c 66% of the time
Kalshi: 1.24c, 82%

Sports: 1.10c vs 1.28c, fills 77% vs 83%

Across 635 markets.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

Prediction market liquidity, past 24h:

Kalshi: 1.24c avg spread, $1k fills within 1c 82% of the time
Polymarket: 1.25c, 66%

Sports: 1.28c vs 1.10c, fills 82% vs 79%

Across 602 markets.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

Prediction market liquidity, past 24h:

Kalshi: 1.21c avg spread, $1k fills within 1c 82% of the time
Polymarket: 1.58c, 61%

Sports: 1.27c vs 0.93c, fills 81% vs 97%
Politics: 0.76c vs 1.98c, fills 90% vs 57%

Across 599 markets.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

Prediction market liquidity, past 24h:

Kalshi: 1.21c avg spread, $1k fills within 1c 79% of the time
Polymarket: 3.16c, 54%

Politics: 0.78c vs 4.83c, fills 82% vs 55%

Across 591 markets.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

A wallet up $3.5M lifetime opened a $19k position on Houston at 79c.

Cincinnati vs. Houston
Houston is trading at 80c.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

Prediction market liquidity, past 24h:

Kalshi: 1.55c avg spread, $1k fills within 1c 76% of the time
Polymarket: 3.03c, 56%

Sports: 1.68c vs 0.80c, fills 84% vs 74%
Politics: 1.04c vs 5.05c, fills 68% vs 63%

Across 553 markets.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

Prediction market liquidity, past 24h:

Kalshi: 1.34c avg spread, $1k fills within 1c 71% of the time
Polymarket: 4.18c, 49%

Sports: 1.28c vs 1.61c, fills 79% vs 70%
Politics: 1.37c vs 6.87c, fills 62% vs 48%

Across 552 markets.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

A wallet up $1.6M lifetime added $15k to a YES position (avg entry now 75c).

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
YES is trading at 77c.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

Prediction market liquidity, past 24h:

Kalshi: 0.98c avg spread, $1k fills within 1c 93% of the time
Polymarket: 1.78c, 55%

Sports: 1.19c vs 1.63c, fills 88% vs 82%
Politics: 0.90c vs 2.11c, fills 95% vs 51%

Across 458 markets.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

Prediction market liquidity, past 24h:

Kalshi: 1.06c avg spread, $1k fills within 1c 92% of the time
Polymarket: 1.32c, 63%

Sports: 1.23c vs 1.29c, fills 87% vs 87%
Politics: 0.89c vs 1.36c, fills 98% vs 70%

Across 524 markets.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

A wallet up $1.6M lifetime added $28k to a YES position (avg entry now 75c).

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
YES is trading at 72c.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

Prediction market liquidity, past 24h:

Kalshi — 1.36c average spread, 90% of quotes at 1c
Polymarket — 2.66c average spread, 77% at 1c

Across 438 markets, both measured YES-side.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

Prediction market liquidity, past 24h:

Kalshi — 1.08c average spread, 95% of quotes at 1c
Polymarket — 2.27c average spread, 72% at 1c

Across 561 markets, both measured YES-side.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

A wallet up $1.1M lifetime added $20k to a YES position (avg entry now 18c).

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES is trading at 16c.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

Prediction market liquidity, past 24h:

Kalshi — 1.04c average spread, 94% of quotes at 1c
Polymarket — 1.90c average spread, 68% at 1c

Across 391 markets, both measured YES-side.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

Prediction market liquidity, past 24h:

Kalshi — 1.19c average spread, 90% of quotes at 1c
Polymarket — 2.04c average spread, 64% at 1c

Across 425 markets, both measured YES-side.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

A wallet up $1.6M lifetime added $25k to a YES position (avg entry now 76c).

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
YES is trading at 72c.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

A wallet up $1.6M lifetime added $16k to a YES position (avg entry now 76c).

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
YES is trading at 76c.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

@noiralgo Agreed. That’s just the cost of trading, and it varies a lot by price: ~2% of entry at 50¢, about 10% under 10¢.

For finding edge, check out the alphspy platform.

[AlphaSpy - Prediction Market Intelligence @alphaspy007]

Prediction market liquidity, past 24h:

Kalshi — 1.06c average spread, 93% of quotes at 1c
Polymarket — 2.72c average spread, 73% at 1c

Across 390 markets, both measured YES-side.