Alt Capital

Special situations across equities and credit: distressed, M&A, activist, spinoffs, go-darks. NYC based. Not investment advice.

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

@GuyImpatient Comes at a good time with refinancing imminent imo. Was surprised by no move in the share price for license extension and groundbreaking last week, seems like market is finally starting to notice

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

https://t.co/eCId8pvihF

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

Took a quick look at $NFE equity. Short answer: not interesting here. Sharing some thoughts below

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

You're not missing anything. $30M of cash burn makes sense given they spent 40-45% of annual marketing budget in the quarter. Rest of the quarters should be cash flow positive if they come anywhere close to their guidance. Only new news with this release is they are using an incremental $10M cash to repurchase additional loans at a discount

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

@yummyCenturyEgg Seems like pref holders need to scrutinize that interco investigation and settlement. $200M+ issue/pot of cash

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

@yummyCenturyEgg Looks like they're using this $400M intercompany settlement between QVC Group and QVC Inc. to justify zeroing the pref

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

$OCI.AS $OCINF OCI Global announces sale of its European Nitrogen distribution assets for EUR 290M (USD $330M or $1.60/share), still reviewing strategic alternatives for its EU Nitrogen production assets.

Seems like a good result. I had the total EU Nitrogen business (both production and distribution assets) at $2-3.50/share. And I think a positive development for the ultimate combination with Orascom... will be more difficult for controlling shareholders to force a bad deal for the remaining assets when it's just a cash box.

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

$OCINF

OCI Global is currently trading at ~$7.50/share, while there’s clear line-of-site to ~$10/share in net asset value by end of 2025 *excluding* the value of its European Nitrogen business, which I estimate could be worth an additional $2-$3.50/share.

The Company is currently evaluating strategic options for both the EU Nitrogen business and OCI as a whole.

EU Nitrogen is Europe’s second-largest integrated nitrates fertilizer producer and a global leader in melamine – plus it owns a strategically located ammonia import terminal in the port of Rotterdam.

At current prices, you are effectively getting this business for less than free.

I first wrote about this idea in December 2024 and recently posted my updated thoughts – link below.

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

$MAGN Some signs of life! Glad this biz isn't going bk tomorrow like it's been trading.

No real change in my thoughts/trends post-earnings. FY26 EBITDA guide in-line with what I was expecting, cash flow generation better than expected.

Industry conditions likely make it still too early for a real move higher. That said, 25%+ FCF yield while MAGN and other producers are removing capacity to rationalize the market isn't too bad.

$100M FCF guide also still includes ~$50M integration costs that should ramp down next couple years.

2031 notes traded up 7 points to a 9% YTM as well today.

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

Thoughts from the $MAGN earnings today:

1) I was not expecting this to be a breakout quarter for MAGN. The CPGs - $PG, $CLX, $KMB - last week all generally reported that demand stabilized in calendar Q2 but has not yet normalized. Category growth rates are still below long-term norms.

2) MAGN's North America business looks well-positioned. Management noted volumes were stable/slightly positive there this Q. Some of the strength here is likely tariff related as MAGN's customers have been sorting through their supply chains and MAGN has benefitted from being a local supplier.

3) MAGN's South America business must have been down pretty big this Q given (i) Americas organic volumes declined 6%, (ii) North America makes up almost 75% of Americas revenue, and (iii) North America was flat/slightly positive. By that math, volumes in the South America business must have been down by 20%+. While this business has clearly struggled, I don't view this as being too material to the overall credit profile of the business. The South America business is 15% of total revenue, or roughly $500M annually. I assume it has lower margins than the rest of the business but assuming it’s the same (~10%), it represents $50M of EBITDA exposure on $360M total for the company. Mgmt clearly acknowledged this business has lost some market share but was confident this business would stabilize, and they expect to feel much better about it going forward.

4) Project CORE – overall this seems manageable and smaller than what I thought a footprint rationalization plan could potentially look like. $20M of costs to achieve $20M of annual cost savings beginning in FY26 after doing a "thoughtful and thorough evaluation of the portfolio" tells me we likely don't have a larger issue here, and it’s not very material in the context of a business with $570M of liquidity, generating close to $100M of FCF annually.

5) Cluster insider buying – while not new, worth reiterating here the open market buys from the CEO and six different directors during May/early June. These give me confidence in the overall competitiveness of the business - they would not be buying if they viewed this as a melting ice cube.

Will be interested to see the FY26 guidance next quarter as more of the merger cost synergies and footprint rationalization savings roll through the numbers. $400M of Adj EBITDA in FY26 seems reasonable to me assuming they capture half of the merger cost synergies and $20M from footprint rationalization, and assuming no improvement from cyclical lows. At a 6x multiple, that’s $2.4B EV, $615M market cap or ~$17/share. Obviously if we get any improvement in underlying fundamentals, I expect it to go much higher, but may still be too early to see the thesis fully play out. Also will be good for the company to get its first 10-K on file and some more coverage going into next year.

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

@yummyCenturyEgg Great write up

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

@thewritser @hughieforbes @ValueStalker @0xMaxFrancoeur Yeah these are only the proofs of claim filed by creditors. Need to look at claims the company scheduled as well (doc #47).
https://t.co/7xByMX9Ts6

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

Weird, yes that's it. When I looked yesterday there were only 13 filed claims, now it shows 21 so maybe they uploaded more? In any event it probably comes down to definition of "Fee Tail" in the engagement letter which covers 6 months post termination (which should have been 6/30/25). They entered into the RSA and filed ch 11 on 7/1 so seems like they may have intentionally structured to avoid paying it.

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

$MRINQ
Seems like the big moving pieces for the $2.5-4M recovery range are: (1) potential $1M claim from Evercore related to the (failed) strategic alternatives process; (2) severance claims - company had scheduled about $2.4M of claims, and there were proofs of claim filed for an additional $1.1M. TBD how much they end up paying; (3) ability to collect on A/R - company had $2.4M outstanding as of the ch 11 filing and they only expected to collect about $300K during the case so likely still ~$2M outstanding.

The Evercore claim was scheduled as "contingent" and Evercore did not file a claim by the bar date on Aug 29th, so that claim likely goes away. That alone probably makes recoveries toward the high end of the range likely?

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

@basedshark01 @TrailRockCap Good point. Hard to say how much that eliminates but yeah I still think the claims pool dwarfs the D&O coverage, which I think in most cases is no more than $10-20M.

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

@yummyCenturyEgg @adjebitdax Yes confirmed

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

$QVCGA $QVCGP

QVC revised its incentive comp plan on Friday (Aug 15) to prepay a certain % of target variable compensation for management for 2025 and 2026 in cash.

https://t.co/JtPM7jiLSE

CEO filed a Form 4 today (Aug 20) showing his RSUs for QVCGA shares that would have vested each year 2025-2027 have been cancelled.

https://t.co/qoFyXhYpWd

Looks like they are basically prepaying management in cash rather than tying any more of their comp to the A shares going forward.

My view is they are still intending to do an LME out-of-court, and they are likely just providing management with guarantee of compensation while the outcome is still uncertain. I don't think it reflects favorably on prospects for the A shares though.

Thoughts?

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

@CharlieGalt1 @InvestSpecial Talked to IR. No date confirmed yet but they expect to report in latter half of September

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

@jbmp51 Yes looks like head of EMEIA/APAC as well to join Gerresheimer.

https://t.co/E9xHvqMxbM

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

Thoughts from the $MAGN earnings today:

1) I was not expecting this to be a breakout quarter for MAGN. The CPGs - $PG, $CLX, $KMB - last week all generally reported that demand stabilized in calendar Q2 but has not yet normalized. Category growth rates are still below long-term norms.

2) MAGN's North America business looks well-positioned. Management noted volumes were stable/slightly positive there this Q. Some of the strength here is likely tariff related as MAGN's customers have been sorting through their supply chains and MAGN has benefitted from being a local supplier.

3) MAGN's South America business must have been down pretty big this Q given (i) Americas organic volumes declined 6%, (ii) North America makes up almost 75% of Americas revenue, and (iii) North America was flat/slightly positive. By that math, volumes in the South America business must have been down by 20%+. While this business has clearly struggled, I don't view this as being too material to the overall credit profile of the business. The South America business is 15% of total revenue, or roughly $500M annually. I assume it has lower margins than the rest of the business but assuming it’s the same (~10%), it represents $50M of EBITDA exposure on $360M total for the company. Mgmt clearly acknowledged this business has lost some market share but was confident this business would stabilize, and they expect to feel much better about it going forward.

4) Project CORE – overall this seems manageable and smaller than what I thought a footprint rationalization plan could potentially look like. $20M of costs to achieve $20M of annual cost savings beginning in FY26 after doing a "thoughtful and thorough evaluation of the portfolio" tells me we likely don't have a larger issue here, and it’s not very material in the context of a business with $570M of liquidity, generating close to $100M of FCF annually.

5) Cluster insider buying – while not new, worth reiterating here the open market buys from the CEO and six different directors during May/early June. These give me confidence in the overall competitiveness of the business - they would not be buying if they viewed this as a melting ice cube.

Will be interested to see the FY26 guidance next quarter as more of the merger cost synergies and footprint rationalization savings roll through the numbers. $400M of Adj EBITDA in FY26 seems reasonable to me assuming they capture half of the merger cost synergies and $20M from footprint rationalization, and assuming no improvement from cyclical lows. At a 6x multiple, that’s $2.4B EV, $615M market cap or ~$17/share. Obviously if we get any improvement in underlying fundamentals, I expect it to go much higher, but may still be too early to see the thesis fully play out. Also will be good for the company to get its first 10-K on file and some more coverage going into next year.

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

$LFCR
Anyone else surprised by the market reaction so far to this? This Q results gave me more confidence in the thesis. Maybe the fact they're targeting 2029/2030 for the potential GLP-1 commercialization was surprising how long it's going to take? And lack of detail on potential size of the contract doesn't help. But whether this contract works out or not, I still have more confidence in them reaching their mid-term/long-term targets than I did before this call.

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

$LFCR

Sharing my thoughts on the LFCR set-up. Apologies to those that are tired of hearing about this one over the last few years but wanted to share my take

In short:

1) LFCR’s business plan looks achievable. After five years, the company finally has all the pieces in place to execute between (i) a new management team, (ii) a shored-up balance sheet and liquidity, (iii) expanded manufacturing capacity, and (iv) favorable industry dynamics. As new capacity is filled, operating leverage should kick in and drive a meaningful inflection in the financials of over the next 3 years

2) There is a decent chance LFCR gets acquired in the near-term, and the transaction could value LFCR at upwards of 2x the current price

3) If no near-term transaction materializes, LFCR could still work out to be a good investment. That said, I do have some concerns around valuation – specifically, what multiple LFCR might trade for in three years as it realizes some of the growth embedded in its current valuation, and as other players in the industry bring on additional capacity. LFCR currently trades at 24x Adj EBITDA. On the face of it, this does not look cheap, and we are clearly paying something for growth. While I believe this growth is real and the multiple is more than supported by recent M&A activity, I am not sure what premium will still exist in three years in a less supply-constrained environment. Based on management’s plan and assuming some multiple contraction to 20x, I am underwriting a mid-$14 stock price by mid-2028 (30% IRR over three years)

Link to full write up below

[Alt Capital @AltCapx]

$LFCR