@Tank_tob yang aneh dari IDI ini ko tiap pindah domisili harus registrasi dan bayar ulang iuran keanggotaan di cabang baru? katanya iuran per bulan tp karena diminta sekaligus beberapa tahun jadi lumayan besar juga
iuran di cabang sebelumnya hangus, saya kira keanggotaannya nasional
They're right for Japan, Korea, and Singapore. Those guys source 75% of refined products from the Persian Gulf. Hormuz closes, they bleed.
But Indonesia is a different story entirely.
Yes, Indonesia imports refined products. Pertamina's refining capacity doesn't fully cover domestic demand, so Pertalite and Solar get bridged through imports. The Hormuz shock hits that. Real exposure.
What makes Indonesia different is this.
Indonesia's actual risk from this isn't supply. It's fiscal. If oil prices spike because Hormuz stays closed, the government's subsidy bill for Pertalite and Solar expands. Wider deficit, rupiah pressure. That's the bear case for Indonesia, and even that's manageable.
The bull case is what nobody is talking about.
Indonesia runs B40 right now. 40% of every liter of diesel consumed domestically is palm oil biodiesel, not petroleum. When oil spikes, the incentive to push toward B50 or B55 gets stronger overnight. Import volume drops. Indonesia self-hedges using its own CPO supply. No other country in Asia has this. Not Korea, not Japan, not Singapore.
Then there's coal.
When Hormuz disrupts LNG and oil flows into Asia, the fastest lever available to power generators in Japan, Korea, and India is gas to coal switching. Indonesia is the world's largest seaborne thermal coal exporter. ADARO, ITMG, PTBA, BUMI don't suffer from this scenario. Export volumes go up. Realized prices go up. Royalty revenue to the government goes up.
Same logic on LNG. Indonesia exports from Bontang and Tangguh. When Middle Eastern supply gets disrupted, the spot premium on non Gulf LNG widens. Indonesian cargoes price up.
Same logic on CPO. High oil equals strong biodiesel demand globally equals strong CPO prices. Indonesia and Malaysia control 85% of global supply.
You see, Indonesia pays more for refined product imports. Fiscal subsidy pressure rises. Rupiah is a watch item. Those are real negatives.
But Indonesia earns more on coal exports, earns more on LNG spot, earns more on CPO, and reduces net petroleum import volume through accelerated biodiesel blending. The terms of trade move in Indonesia's favor, not against it.
The conventional take is "Indonesia is a net oil importer so oil shock is bad." The correct take is Indonesia is a net energy exporter in the commodities that directly substitute for disrupted Persian Gulf supply. A sustained Hormuz closure improves Indonesia's aggregate energy trade position, not deteriorates it.
Happy Sunday and Happy Easter.
ga perlu jual nasionalisme, kalau kualitas filmnya bagus bakal banyak yang nonton juga ko
suka guilt triping hanya karena buatan sendiri, bikin film kualitas sinetron
@prkdlx in-house itu lebih fleksibel mas, bisa responsive kalau butuh update cepet, dibandingkan vendor yang terikat kontrak, harus mengacu ke kontrak tersebut
kalau alasannya perputaran uang, sebenernya sama aja mas, tim it kan tetep spending juga
@BBCIndonesia Tunjangan kehormatan: dari 5,5 juta MALAH NAIK jadi 7,1 JUTA
Tunjangan komunikasi: ganti nama dan MALAH NAIK dari 15 JUTA ke 20 JUTAAN
Bantuan listrik dan asisten iye diapus 10 juta, tp peningkatan fungsi awalnya 3,75 juta NAIK JADI 24 JUTA.
Lu semua dianggep IDIOT sama DPR
@BBCIndonesia Base On Data @BocorAlusPol gaji ini gak signifikan. Tapi tunjangan reses yang tadi 350 juta x 5 kali setahun , naik jadi 720juta x 5 kali setahun.
Total dengan tunjangan2 lainnya DPR per-bulan 650 juta. Jadi kehilangan 50juta ini kecil banget , makanya DPR setuju 😄😄😄
#intinyadeh polisi dan TNI nyerang kampus UNISBA dan UNPAS tengah malam.
Bawa panser, polisi merangsek masuk, nembakin gas air mata ke dalam area kampus.
Satpam2 kampus terluka, mahasiswi ada yang dipukul sampai berdarah-darah.
Polda Jabar & Kodam Siliwangi blg jaga Kamtibmas.
#intinyadeh video memperlihatkan briefing dari Kapolri kepada anggota kepolisian jd viral.
Terlihat dalam klip Kaporli perintahkan utk tembak jika ada yg masuk asrama. Tembak dgn peluru karet.
Diikuti sorak-sorai tepuk tangan anggota polisi setelah mendengar perintah "tembak".
Ga ada dialog, ga membuka ruang aspirasi, ga ada upaya perbaikan secara internal, ga ada evaluasi, langsung ambil jalan kekerasan.
Gatau dah, mungkin bakal makin mencekam situasinya. Pemerintah ga tau cara handle situasi krisis.