Couldn’t be more excited to share that I will be joining the @TheRunninRebels as a Graduate Assistant for the 2025-26 season!! A sincere thank you to everyone that has been apart of the journey thus far, and excited to be a small part of something special in Vegas!! 🙏🏽 #WORKINIT
I’m usually not the biggest fan of all-in-one stats as a measure of a basketball player’s value, however I have been a long time fan of the stat Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM), created by data scientist @taylor_snarr. Personally, I feel like this is the closest stat to measuring a NBA players impact on the game, and I feel like it often aligns with my eye test more often than not - which is not something you can say about every stat. That being said, there are definitely some surprises in there as well! I spent this morning going through every player in the NBA’s EPM numbers from last season, and here are some interesting insights that I found:
• As great of a year as he had for the Lakers, I was surprised to see that Marcus Smart ranked 11th in the whole NBA in defensive impact/100 possessions and 71st in overall impact/100. He was huge in the playoffs for the Lakers, and by the numbers had one of the best seasons of his career in terms of defensive impact. The Rockets undoubtedly got great value signing him to a 2 year, $13 million deal this offseason.
• On the other hand, Alperen Sengun was ranked 117th in overall impact/100, far below what I thought he would be ranked. A big reason for that is his 4th percentile TOV rate, while also having middle of the pack true shooting (55th percentile).
• LaMelo Ball ranked 5th in the entire NBA in offensive impact/100 and 7th in overall impact/100. Despite his negative defensive impact/100 (406th) and turnovers (2nd percentile), his offensive creation is so high that he is analytically an overwhelmingly positive force. Hard to understate how big of an addition he is to the Timberwolves offensively.
• OKC had 4 of the top 10 and 6 of the top 25 defensive impact/100 guys in the NBA last season according to EPM in Alex Caruso (4th), Cason Wallace (5th), Chet Holmgren (6th), Isaiah Hartenstein (9th), Ajay Mitchell (13th), and Jaylin Williams (23rd). No doubt they all get a boost from playing with each other, but it is truly ridiculous how many high level impact defenders they have.
• Portland’s Donovan Clingan ranked 41st in the NBA in overall impact/100, being top 100 in both offensive and defensive impact/100. He’s quietly on trajectory to become one of the most valuable bigs in the league with hie elite rebounding and high level rim protection.
• Payton Pritchard has been on a steady improvement curve since he entered the NBA, making a significant jump in impact/100 in each season of his career. In 25-26 Pritchard ranked 23rd in the NBA in offensive impact/100 and 44th overall in overall impact/100. Jalen Brunson was 9th in the NBA in offensive impact/100 last season (regular season). Can Pritchard make one more jump into the top 15 next season?? Analytically he’s not far off, but making that jump from top 25 to top 15 is the hardest one yet.
• Detroit’s big man ranking 13th overall in defensive impact/100 and 23rd in overall impact/100.. was Paul Reed?? He might be the only guy in the NBA playing less than 15 mins a game with that type of impact/100. His eye popping numbers were driven by his 96th percentile block rate, 98th percentile steal rate, and 94th percentile true shooting.
• It’s so hard for rookies to be positive players, but three that did were Kon Knueppel (37th in the NBA in overall impact/100), Collin Murray-Boyles (74th), and VJ Edgecombe (84th). Either of Murray-Boyles and Edgecombe potentially making a jump into the top 50 next year would be huge for their respective team’s prospects at a title.
Of course analytics don’t tell the whole story, but it is definitely an important context to have when evaluating a player - especially when you are looking at them through the lens of immediate impact vs. development. Do you agree or disagree with the story that EPM tells?
I’m excited to announce I will be a graduate assistant next year with UNLV basketball. Thank you to Coach Pastner, Coach Garson and the rest of the staff for the opportunity. Can’t wait to start my coaching journey and play a small part in a historic program. Go Runnin’ Rebels!!!
All-OVC 2nd-Teamer Dontrez Williams (@DontrezWilliam2) has committed to UNLV, he announced!
Williams averaged 15.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.6 steals, and 2.1 assists per game this season.
As my time at Syracuse as a Head Student Manager comes to a close, I am excited to share my portfolio as I look to pursue Graduate Assistant opportunities! I am always looking for advice and to connect with coaches. Feel free to reach out.
https://t.co/sWsF5TRKun