@adam_louis52328@arash_tehran He does not. I am Israeli, and I would trust Arash with my children, whereas I would not let you and your poison anywhere near them.
We should acknowledge a basic reality: even if Israel were given a green light tomorrow to strike anywhere in Lebanon, including Beirut, it would not end the conflict.
It would likely escalate it.
The only scenario that could plausibly disarm Hezbollah by force would be a full-scale occupation of Lebanon. Israel neither has the capacity nor the political will to undertake such a campaign. As a result, even expanded military operations in Beirut might impose costs on Hezbollah, but they would not dismantle the organization or its political and social infrastructure.
The only viable path toward ending the conflict in Lebanon is a political and diplomatic one: strengthening the Lebanese state, negotiating a final settlement of the land border disputes between Israel and Lebanon, and establishing robust security arrangements.
Resolving the territorial disputes would undercut one of Hezbollah’s central narratives—that it serves as Lebanon’s defender against ongoing Israeli claims and threats.
At the same time, stronger Lebanese state institutions and enforceable security mechanisms would offer a more sustainable foundation for stability than military pressure alone.
From Hezbollah’s perspective, there will be no return to the status quo that existed before the current war. As long as Israel continues conducting military operations inside Lebanon, Hezbollah is likely to respond. This makes the notion of an arrangement in which Israel retains broad freedom of action throughout Lebanon while Hezbollah simply observes a ceasefire both unrealistic and unsustainable.
A durable de-escalation therefore requires a mutual ceasefire, accompanied by serious negotiations between Israel and the Lebanese government on security arrangements and a final border settlement.
The broader lesson is similar to the one many observers have drawn from the Iranian case: military power can create leverage, but it cannot by itself produce a stable political outcome. No Israeli military campaign, regardless of its intensity, is likely to deliver long-term security for northern Israel unless it is paired with diplomacy, incentives, and sustained engagement with the Lebanese state.
Indeed, there is an inherent tension between preserving unrestricted military freedom of action in Lebanon and advancing meaningful negotiations with Beirut. Every Israeli strike weakens the Lebanese government's political position and provides Hezbollah with justification to continue hostilities.
Rather than focusing on securing American approval for strikes in Beirut, a step unlikely to alter the strategic trajectory of the conflict beyond satisfying domestic demands in Israel, the Israeli government should prioritize advancing negotiations in Washington and with the Lebanese government, even if doing so requires suspending military operations.
Ultimately, policymakers face a choice. They can continue pursuing military operations in Lebanon, or they can pursue a serious diplomatic process. Attempting to do both simultaneously is unlikely to succeed.
June 7th, 1982. Prime Minister Begin and Defense Minister Sharon celebrate on the Beaufort Castle a few hours after it was taken by Israeli troops, starting a bloody 18-year quagmire than finally ended with Israel's departure from Lebanon in 2000. 44 years later, the same idiocy in the same place. The only difference will be the names of the dead. Maybe try something new? Just maybe?
@JoelleAdler No. Israel controls the Egyptian border from inside Gaza. Only Israel decides who can enter and leave. This has been true ever since Israel took Rafah.