Amitabh Shrivastava

Economist. Ex Director & Co-founder Adam Smith International Ltd., UK. Interests - politics, economics in India, UK & South Asia. Views personal.

[Amitabh Shrivastava @amitabhasi]

Emergency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

A perfect storm is brewing. And this time, Pakistan needs no conspiracy by its imagined enemies. Its own elites are doing a remarkable job of tearing the country apart.

Its most popular political leader is in jail, democracy is being strangled, and the establishment appears dangerously detached from realities on the ground.

Pakistan, a creation of British colonialism, is held together by religion and the promise of democracy. Undermine either, particularly amid economic stagnation, and the foundations begin to crumble.

Cricket and hockey are perhaps the best proxies for Pakistan’s decline. Both teams were once the envy of the world. Today, hockey struggles even to qualify for major tournaments, while cricket is a shadow of its former glory. In many ways, that’s the story of Pakistan itself. Unless something changes, the country risks coming apart at the seams.

@HamidMirPAK @WaseemBadami @mehdirhasan @meherbokhari

[Amitabh Shrivastava @amitabhasi]

Recent Protests in Delhi

Activist protests are increasingly becoming a feature of liberal democracies. Governments have to learn to live with and accommodate them.

Across the world, younger generations face economic uncertainty and, in many cases, less promising prospects than their parents. It only takes a trigger, often an isolated incident, to ignite wider discontent and bring thousands onto the streets. The Arab Spring itself began with the self-immolation of a young Tunisian street vendor following an altercation with local officials. And just this month, we have seen large scale student protests in France and demonstrations in Spain.

The UK offers useful lessons for us. The highly disruptive “Just Stop Oil” movement is a good example to look at. The protests were dealt with through policing, legislation and the courts. Today, with body cameras, CCTV and other surveillance technology, protesters who break the law can be identified, held accountable and made to face the full legal consequences of their actions. Criminal convictions can affect future employment and, in certain circumstances, eligibility to stand for elected office. There is no need for heavy-handed policing when the law can take its course.

Critically, politicians should resist the temptation to involve themselves in operational policing. Such matters are best left to police forces acting within the law. Political interference often escalates tensions, politicises the issue and ultimately does more damage to the politicians themselves.

A confident democracy should not fear protests. It manages them professionally, impartially and within the rule of law.

[Amitabh Shrivastava @amitabhasi]

@naomi2009 The atmosphere here is electric. The Falklands, the Hand of God, the Beckham red card - history and rivalry galore. It’s the closest I’ve felt to an India–Pakistan cricket match.

[Amitabh Shrivastava @amitabhasi]

@naomi2009 Pets are among the biggest sufferers, especially those that haven’t been groomed. I agree - the heat feels much worse in London because our homes, the Tube, and much of the infrastructure simply weren’t built for these temperatures.

[Amitabh Shrivastava @amitabhasi]

@GiorgiaMeloni Have shown this video to my daughters. It is great to finally see a western leader stand up to lies and bullying. You are already popular and much respected in India, this makes you more so. Girls need to see more like you.

[Amitabh Shrivastava @amitabhasi]

The momentum and the political mood are such that Starmer will have to go. But the sad fact of British politics is that no mainstream politician - including @Nigel_Farage or @ZiaYusufUK - has answers to the many problems the country faces, such as out of control immigration, the soaring welfare and pension bill, millions out of work, job creation, and the NHS.

The solutions are simple, but no one is prepared to state them for fear of being “politically incorrect”, not even Farage.

Burnham or another, it will simply be more of the same, only packaged differently.

Personally, though I am the polar opposite of @AngelaRayner - or, for that matter, any Labour candidate - it is high time Labour had a woman PM.

[Amitabh Shrivastava @amitabhasi]

@naomi2009 Naomi, I’m very sorry to hear about Cutey’s passing. I know firsthand how heartbreaking it is to lose a much loved pet. My deepest condolences. May Cutey rest in peace.

[Amitabh Shrivastava @amitabhasi]

It is encouraging to see leading UK universities like Southampton, Liverpool, and Surrey establishing campuses in India at a time when we urgently need greater investment in higher education.

However, many of these universities are starting primarily with programmes in business, economics, social sciences, and computing, while offering limited or no options in engineering, sciences, and medicine - the very fields in which they have built their global reputations.

India’s economic future depends heavily on strong STEM capabilities. The government should therefore require universities with established strengths in science, engineering, and medicine to introduce these disciplines within a defined timeframe. Specialist social science institutions like LSE could reasonably be exempted.

India must also learn from the UK’s experience, where rapid expansion of higher education - particularly in the social sciences - has produced tens of thousands of graduates who remain unemployed. Investments in higher education must align with India’s strengths in STEM and actual market demand, rather than simply importing prestigious brands.

@Lindy_Cameron @BritishCouncil @EduMinOfIndia @unisouthampton @LivUni @MEABharat

[Amitabh Shrivastava @amitabhasi]

Tony Blair’s words are very timely. Back in the 1990s, not that long ago, the UK was the envy of the world - a model for economic development, governance, and politics. Its success story was widely exported, inspiring reforms around the world.

The problem, as I see it, is that both Labour and the Conservatives now look like outdated legacy parties - one could even say “expired.” One simply defaults to higher taxes and more spending; the other to fiscal restraint and incremental deregulation. Neither is offering a credible strategy or vision for the many challenges the country faces: jobs (ref Alan Milburn’s report today), immigration, the out-of-control benefits and pensions bill, the NHS, and demographic shifts.

British politicians increasingly remind me of George Orwell’s Animal Farm - ever more out of touch with reality. In fairness to the electorate, voters did give both parties big majorities to deliver change under Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, but both failed miserably, simply retreating into their parties’ old ideologies. Any Starmer replacement will only bang the old even harder when the country is desperately crying for a new approach.

I suspect the next election will come much before 2029. While I don’t expect upheaval on the scale of Nepal or Bangladesh, ignoring voters’ demands risks change coming through unexpected routes.

Blair’s intervention is very timely, but I fear little will change. The old parties will simply dig deeper, paving the way for Nigel Farage’s Reform. Britain will then face a new social contract - one I suspect most Britons don’t want, much like they didn’t want Brexit, but sleepwalked into anyway.

[Amitabh Shrivastava @amitabhasi]

A simple rule: where possible, do not travel on a state-owned airline. Running airlines is generally not something states do well, nor is it a role they should have. I avoided flying AI when it was an SOE, but since its privatisation I fly it regularly on the London–Delhi route and within India.

[Amitabh Shrivastava @amitabhasi]

Britain’s core problem is that Labour and the Conservatives increasingly resemble India’s Congress Party in its recent years - legacy parties built for a different era, now struggling to adapt to new social and political realities.

Voters gave Boris Johnson in 2019 and Keir Starmer in 2024 huge majorities because they sensed the country needed deeper change, not just managerial adjustments. Yet even with those strong mandates, neither could seriously tackle the deeper social, cultural and institutional shifts reshaping Britain.

Labour’s instinct is higher taxes, expanded welfare and more NHS spending. The Conservatives tend towards modest deregulation and tighter spending control. Both still treat Britain’s problems primarily as economic when many are now social, cultural and institutional.

Simply swapping leaders - replacing Starmer with Andy Burnham, or changing one Conservative leader for another - will not solve it. The issue runs deeper than personalities.

India provides a useful parallel. The BJP rose by addressing issues the old Congress party could no longer articulate or address. More recently, movements such as the AAP and actor Vijay’s TVK in Tamil Nadu have filled similar political vacuums. They show how quickly new forces emerge when traditional parties fail to respond to changing realities.

The danger for Britain is clear. If the mainstream parties do not reform and adapt, the space will increasingly be occupied by groups like Reform UK - a harder, more populist right-wing force rather than a moderate conservative alternative. That may not be what most Britons actually want, but political vacuums rarely stay empty for long.

[Amitabh Shrivastava @amitabhasi]

The reaction of sections of the Indian media and India’s political opposition, to Pakistan’s role in US - Iran mediation misses a basic geopolitical reality: mediation requires access.

Pakistan’s relevance stems from its ability to engage with actors like the Iran’s Revolutionary Guards - access that most liberal democracies neither have nor seek. In geopolitics, access sometimes determines who gets to mediate.

The signals were visible earlier. When President Trump hosted Pakistan’s Army Chief, it suggested to me something regional was in motion - whether in Iran or Afghanistan.

India, like Europe, Japan, and Australia, has taken the right approach by keeping a low profile and focusing on its core interest of maintaining stability in its oil and gas prices.

@sardesairajdeep @Nisheeth_U @VishnuNDTV @naomi2009 @DrSJaishankar @BBCRajiniV @nramind

[Amitabh Shrivastava @amitabhasi]

@BorisJohnson Will U.K. punish the EU or China? I was expecting some principles from the U.K. politicians!

[Amitabh Shrivastava @amitabhasi]

@LodhiMaleeha Your views are always balanced and insightful, earning respect across borders. Thank you.

[Amitabh Shrivastava @amitabhasi]

@MichaelKugelman USA - Pakistan trade deal: Such exploration contracts are awarded through open bidding, not decided behind closed doors. This is likely to be a bad deal for Pakistan - much like the IPPs in the power sector.

[Amitabh Shrivastava @amitabhasi]

@anandmahindra A Mahindra auto parked outside Wimbledon SW19, ferrying visitors during the championship. I live nearby, couldn’t help but notice.

[Amitabh Shrivastava @amitabhasi]

@AshwiniVaishnaw Recently @DalLake Srinagar