Libiya

Witnessing history in making ... good luck Libya ...

[Jérémie @jeremie0117]

Goldman Research Oil Analyst: How Fast Can Gulf Production Recover After Reopening?
https://t.co/Wt1ZKZrXy7

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

The @nytimes on one of the major economic effects of the War:
“At least 39 energy oil refineries, natural gas fields and other energy sites in nine countries have been damaged since the United States and Israel began bombarding Iran…. Some have been struck by drones. Several have been hit more than once.”
#economy #markets #energy #middleeastwar

[Libiya @Amool]

@realDonaldTrump @grok clarify

[DANNY @Danny_Crypton]

🚨 THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE

I’ve been analyzing this for the last 24 hours and this is VERY BAD.

World silver production: ~800M ounces
BofA & Citi shorts: 4.4 BILLION

I’ve spent two decades in macro, and I thought I had seen it all.

I WAS WRONG.

If silver keeps going up, the biggest banks in america will collapse.

Here’s what I uncovered:

Yesterday, silver hit $92. Then it dropped over 6% in a few minutes, pumped back up to around $91, and now it’s crashing again.

I’ve spent 20 years in these markets. Most people see a normal correction, but I see a TRAP.

At $90/oz, their combined short position is now a ~$390 BILLION liability.

That’s larger than the market cap of most global banks.

This is literally survival. The banks are doing everything they can to stay afloat.

WHY THE DIP TO $86 OVERNIGHT?

They had to do it. If silver had broken $100 yesterday, margin calls would have liquidated those banks.

They unloaded paper contracts during thin overnight liquidity to FORCE THE PRICE DOWN.

But look closer at the physical market:

While the paper price dropped $6, lease rates just went vertical.

The cost to borrow physical silver is skyrocketing.

We are in BACKWARDATION.

Spot Price > Futures Price.

It means people don’t want paper promise in 6 months, they want the metal NOW.

THE MATH IS TERMINAL:

We know the shorts are 4.4B ounces.
We know annual mining is ~800M ounces.

But at $90+, the recycling supply dries up because people hoard.

And industrial demand (AI chips, solar, EVs) is inelastic, they must buy at any price to keep factories running.

BofA and Citi aren't just short the metal, they’re short the industrial revolution.

THE "FORCE MAJEURE" IS NEXT

I warned you 2 weeks ago about "cash settlement."

It’s already starting in the wholesale markets.

Dealers are quoting unavailable or 6-week delays for volume delivery.

When the price snaps back above $92, and it will, it won't stop at $100.

It will gap to $150 overnight when the first major short declares force majeure.

THE TWO MARKETS ARE DETACHING:

1. Screen Price ($88): A fiction maintained by algorithms.
2. Street Price: Unobtainable.

They’re shaking the tree one last time to get your physical…

BUT DO NOT SELL.

We are witnessing the death of the paper derivative market in real-time.

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the commodities supercycle.

How do I know all of this?

I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.

Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

[Libiya @Amool]

@Mouniryouniss Welcome to Iraq & Libya club 😟

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

Maritime war risk premiums fall in Red Sea, rise in Black Sea amid changing security dynamics
https://t.co/caE1U881Ig

[اندبندنت عربية @IndyArabia]

⭕لا يزال الملف الليبي يراوح داخل المنطقة الرمادية، لا سيما في ظل كثرة الحديث عن احتمال اعتماد الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترمب على ليبيا ضمن عدد من الملفات

⬅️معلومات عن سعي أميركي للحصول على تعويضات م��ابل التدخل لإسقاط نظام القذافي عام 2011

... https://t.co/zXcsXjTLNA

[Libiya @Amool]

TRA TUNISIA E LIBIA/ “Usa tra Erdogan e Putin, a noi conviene un patto con la Turchia” https://t.co/Ljt6P0dGfb via @ilsussidiario

[Khalil Elhassi @ElhasseKhalil]

تأملوا صدمة ودهشة كريستيان عندما اعترف إيهود باراك وقال: "إسرائيل هي التي قامت ببناء المخابئ أسفل مستشفى الشفاء"..

[Mohammed Elgrj @moelgrj]

#UPDATE

This information is according to an eyewitness from Derna, Munir Dakhil, a civil activist present in the city.

Derna today, 39 people have been rescued from under the rubble, and as night falls, an entire family has been saved.

Libyan and international rescue teams are working at full capacity, searching under the rubble, and helicopters are scanning all areas around the clock until this moment.

As for the eastern coast of the city, aid and relief have not intentionally, mistakenly, or unintentionally reached there, as some reports suggest. Instead, the eastern coast was almost cut off, and access was difficult. However, rescue teams managed to enter and provide supplies to the stranded as soon as possible, even into the late hours.

Regarding relief convoys, all reports of their prohibition from entering Derna are not accurate. There is no ban on humanitarian aid convoys. The situation has been well-organized to allow entry into the affected areas, with a security cordon by the army to facilitate the specialized rescue teams in searching for survivors or retrieving victims' bodies.

Any assistance or humanitarian convoys can enter the city without any hindrance.

Relief centers in the city are open to all residents of Derna, not just to displaced families.

Electricity has been restored to several areas, and electricity teams are still working to repair the remaining areas to resolve the water crisis once the wells are back in service.

Most of the pleas for help circulated on social media have been reached and thankfully rescued. May God bless everyone who shared a plea for help and contributed to saving lives.

For young people heading to Derna, if you are not specialists in rescue, paramedics, or divers, it's best to give space to the experts and avoid entering the disaster-stricken areas. Don't be upset if they ask you to leave. You can help in hospitals, relief centers, or with burials, as these are areas in need.

Focus on providing water in relief efforts because it's used for both washing and drinking due to the shutdown of wells in some areas.

This is a summary of the day from the field in the city of Derna until late hours.

#Derna #Libya #StormDaniel #LibyaFloods

[WION @WIONews]

#NewsAlert | BRICS announces new members: Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia and the UAE

#CyrilRamaphosa #BRICS #BRICSSummit2023

[Ziad Daoud @ZiadMDaoud]

Saudi reduced its holdings of US debt to a 6-year low

The UAE also sold US bonds in June

One reason: Risk appetite in the GCC is rising

https://t.co/LXi3A6P90E

[Ziad Daoud @ZiadMDaoud]

Saudi: Interesting points from Tim Callen
• IMF estimates the fiscal breakeven at $81
• Oil output cuts would raise the breakeven to $88
• The number is an underestimate -- public spending is increasingly done off-budget, through the PIF and NDF

https://t.co/mGdMxnV15H

[Ziad Daoud @ZiadMDaoud]

Egypt: Where will pound go?

• 3-month forwards (orange line) see the exchange rate at 33.6, or 8% weaker than the current level (white)

• 12-month forwards (blue) are at 40.3, or 23% weaker

The currency has already depreciated by ~50% against the dollar since March 2022

[Mike Azar @AzarsTweets]

Very shoddy work by Oliver Wyman on its BDL engagement.

They say, in March 2021, that the LBP exchange rate has overshot. It was ~12,000 at the time. It’s ~100,000 now.

They also say the Govt can recapitalize BDL “which should not be too onerous.” Well 3x GDP seems pretty onerous to me, though they do note that the needed recapitalization will depend on the level of deposit write-downs. That’s like saying I can afford this Ferrari depending on whether or not you give me a 99% discount.

At the same time, OW proposes that the Govt recapitalize BDL with a zero coupon bond, which would “have no financial impact”. That’s not a recapitalization. That’s replacing the Other Assets/Seignorage accounting gimmick with a zero coupon bond accounting gimmick. Both are not getting paid. What’s the point of proposing this?

It goes on: “That a central bank should have negative net worth is not in itself a disaster, nor is it a necessary barrier.” You can say this about a central bank with a small loss. Not one with 3x GDP worth of losses. They go out of their way not to upset anyone even at the cost of being straightforward and clear.

It is typical consultant double-speak. For ex, the report praises BDL on one page (saying it has performed its duty to maintain the exchange rate) but then confirms tens of billions of dollars of misleading accounting on another page.

You can’t have it both ways. You can’t say it performed it’s duty, and then talk about how the exchange rate has collapsed, we need deposit write offs, and the balance sheet is off by tens of billions of hidden losses. It gets worse. They accept that the balance sheet uses false accounting to obscure the losses and also say “one cannot say that a particular accounting approach is correct.”

Consultant double-speak at its finest.

[Bloomberg Middle East @middleeast]

The rally in Turkey’s hard-currency bonds is under threat https://t.co/PYJJmN1G4R

[Bloomberg Middle East @middleeast]

Kuwait’s $700 billion wealth fund is being eclipsed by ambitious, flashier neighbors.

Here's why: https://t.co/Si4ZpxjjKq

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

The busiest day ever for commercial aviation yesterday

Almost 135k flights

Guess the tourism Industry is not in recession yet 😅

[LNG Investor @LNG_Investor_]

5/5 There will be a shortage of Oil and Gas due to the push for the Energy Transition

[أذكارك @ii_e19]

6 عادات دينية ستغير حياتك باذن الله
- نصيحه إذا مشغول فضلها وارجع لها بعدين🤍